Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
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lightning f57
Trusted Member
Israel is American political establishment achilles heel but Iran can't take on US, Israel GCC countries together. But it has limited options now they are slowly being degraded and trump wants to create conditions for unrest.
lightning f57
Trusted Member
This is what i would have expected This is an asymmetric move after all, but Iran only does that when its hit.
Either Iran has some really bad lesders making stupid decisions right now or this is next level 4D chess.
kobra
Registered Member
This is likley from UAE or Oman. The Telegram channel says from the south of the Persian Gulf near the strait.
vizier
Registered Member
Good move. Also Kuwait used its land for attacks against Iran. Himars strikes were originating from there making them part of the aggression against Iran. For every tanker a kuwaiti tanker can be targeted as well. Seeing docked tankers is easy because it is relatively close to Iran. After that bahrain, uae ships can be targeted as well for every targeted Iranian oil tanker. If kuwait or others expel all usa activity from their soil then this can be cancelled and only usa ships can be targeted for retaliation.
Attacking isreal is proposed by many but it is possible if Syria allows arms to Hezbollah as the close proximity ground force and jordan regime stops acting as the shield of isreal so Iranian missiles can pass through. Also Irans bm, drones should be replenished enough both against usa - israeli combined attack. Otherwise Iran cannot sustain attacks and It will be like a hamas suicide operation with a large bang at the start and no noise after a short while.
If there is solid deterrence they cannot use tactical nukes. There should be some strike planned against dimona reactor if that happens. Maybe with a few dirty bomb warheads detonated a few thousand feet altitude if possible for area radiation denial on the desert area around reactor. Ofcourse since it is a reactor Iran can claim dirty bomb warhead is not used and it is fallout from nuclear reactor after the strike. Usa may also claim that tactial nukes are not used depending on the level of the strike if it is not easy to verify it quickly.
That way instead of targeting population centers with dirty bomb triggering mutually assured destruction the deterrence will be established. If things escalate further isreali population centers will ofcourse be targeted. Icbms or tactical nukes wont drop down by magic when you dont build wmds thinking you are acting morally, they wont be used by the other side when you have enough deterrence by logic.
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Falcon29
Elite Member
Like I told people earlier, they weren't prepared for this war. Gaza 2023 exposed weak foundations of AOR in region. The other regional powers (which includes US due to their large presence) are infinitely more wealthier and technologically advanced. That can't be underestimated even if we think some local leaderships are incompetent.
IR is backed into corner because Russia and China aren't actually helping or going to help. They have limited resources and they used a lot over the past two years. They're preserving resources for if major Iranian cities come under attack.
I was screaming in late 2023 for an intervention in Gaza before ground op but the policy remained strategic patience until it was too late.
Iranian leadership may be content with a ceasefire and time to recoup. However USA is not offering that without major concessions which has forced Iran to condition control of SOH as a integral part of ceasefire. That's a tough place to be in because it's tantamount to demanding surrender from Iran and Iran was not prepared for this scenario. Neither were Hamas or Hezbollah. Nobody was expecting US to greenlight genocide and wholesale scale carpet bombing of Gaza.
Falcon29
Elite Member
US Navy says Iran fired anti ship ballistic missiles at two US warships
That's different than firing cruise missiles
Iran is not trying to score a hit from what we can observe. It forces the warships to expend their interceptors, move further away to safety and makes US mission in SOH and particularly naval blockade of Iran more challenging mission.
^^
This is if Iran continues these strikes on a daily basis. If it stops for weeks then there is no coherent strategy in place.
Even if some hit and damage occurs, US would respond with strikes in Tehran maybe other cities, it would be worth it for Iran. The cost risk analysis is in Irans favor as it has nothing to lose and has already been battered by US and Israeli strikes.
It's possible Trump administration gets embarrassed and scope of strikes or duration might be lengthier and larger than assumed but it would still work to Iran's favor. The Iranian political leadership, however, is looking at the future of the nation and what it wants to be. They aren't looking at that this through military lens. They're looking at what happens down the road if we pursue that route and what does Iran's future look like ? Perpetual low intensity war with US (which is very damaging economically and other reasons )? Or what exactly ?
That's different than firing cruise missiles
Iran is not trying to score a hit from what we can observe. It forces the warships to expend their interceptors, move further away to safety and makes US mission in SOH and particularly naval blockade of Iran more challenging mission.
^^
This is if Iran continues these strikes on a daily basis. If it stops for weeks then there is no coherent strategy in place.
Even if some hit and damage occurs, US would respond with strikes in Tehran maybe other cities, it would be worth it for Iran. The cost risk analysis is in Irans favor as it has nothing to lose and has already been battered by US and Israeli strikes.
It's possible Trump administration gets embarrassed and scope of strikes or duration might be lengthier and larger than assumed but it would still work to Iran's favor. The Iranian political leadership, however, is looking at the future of the nation and what it wants to be. They aren't looking at that this through military lens. They're looking at what happens down the road if we pursue that route and what does Iran's future look like ? Perpetual low intensity war with US (which is very damaging economically and other reasons )? Or what exactly ?
Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ
Trusted Member
The fact that they demonstrate a capability as a Flex if bigger than what US does as a retaliation... because US hits civilian targets as a result.
However, that demonstration keeps the policy makers within reasonable check... within their bubble of hubris and bravado. These are However farts on orange's face because he draws real blood. Gets carted in bins and pits his own crew for target practice... so that he can call them fools later.
The eventuality of a US carrier or destroyer eating a direct hit keep inching higher by the day. A minor miscalculation away...
Falcon29
Elite Member
The fact that the US military retailed by striking 3 Iranian oil tankers means that it considers anti ship ballistic missiles dangerous enough to warrant a deterring response. It's possible there isn't a 100% confidence of being able to shoot those down. But also Iranian anti ship BMs are not entirely accurate either and can miss. Iran also has variants so US Navy is playing guessing game with what Iran might deploy.
Thus they responded immediately with striking three Iranian oil tankers. The message to Iran is don't open this Pandora's box.
But if I'm Iran that's telling me that that's an effective move and I'll continue carefully pushing boundaries.
1-3 such missiles fired a week may be effective enough to disrupt US naval blockade of Iran and disrupt mission to escort tankers in SOH.
Doing something like firing 80-100 in rapid succession would invite a large US response as US military will not just retailtate against Iran, it will try to show the world what happens if you attempt such a strike on US Navy. So Iran may absorb a disproportionate response in that scenario. Nothing nuclear but expect strikes on government buildings/infrastructure this time, assassinations and more. Probably more brutal strikes on Iranian oil/gas infrastructure and power plant.
^^
For that, I don't think Iran has capacity. First of all it needs to get enough missiles close enough to be in range of US destroyers, undetected, then it will need an arsenal worthy enough to retailtate with force against Israel and other targets in region -- and then be prepared US escalates even more in such scenario. Iranian leadership isn't willing to take on such a scenario and limited # of missiles that can reach further US targets in region and Israel limits their options. So even if they have a good supply of anti ship ballistic missiles, it's doesn't equal ability to deploy military options successfully.
Thus they responded immediately with striking three Iranian oil tankers. The message to Iran is don't open this Pandora's box.
But if I'm Iran that's telling me that that's an effective move and I'll continue carefully pushing boundaries.
1-3 such missiles fired a week may be effective enough to disrupt US naval blockade of Iran and disrupt mission to escort tankers in SOH.
Doing something like firing 80-100 in rapid succession would invite a large US response as US military will not just retailtate against Iran, it will try to show the world what happens if you attempt such a strike on US Navy. So Iran may absorb a disproportionate response in that scenario. Nothing nuclear but expect strikes on government buildings/infrastructure this time, assassinations and more. Probably more brutal strikes on Iranian oil/gas infrastructure and power plant.
^^
For that, I don't think Iran has capacity. First of all it needs to get enough missiles close enough to be in range of US destroyers, undetected, then it will need an arsenal worthy enough to retailtate with force against Israel and other targets in region -- and then be prepared US escalates even more in such scenario. Iranian leadership isn't willing to take on such a scenario and limited # of missiles that can reach further US targets in region and Israel limits their options. So even if they have a good supply of anti ship ballistic missiles, it's doesn't equal ability to deploy military options successfully.
Shags101
Trusted Member
Agree they were very very close the last round with Israel but I’m also conflicted on that one because if nuclear fallout possibility but I think the Iranians are preparing for that scenario and honestly if it happens it’s going to happen before the Israeli election forgot to add that Bibi will attempt to boost his voting with extremists and perhaps make it harder for moderates to show up to vote
Falcon29
Elite Member
US strikes on Iran are not that significant tbh. It was during the joint war with Israel but these are small retailation packages. Which makes me wonder why Iran is so afraid of using its tools at hand.
US Navy has prepared for scenarios with much larger adversaries like China and Russia. Iran cannot chop a US destroyer in half or sink an aircraft carrier. It can maybe a score a hit on a ship which makes US Navy mission in SOH more dangerous and suspectible to disruption.
It will take a lot to score a hit, lots of missiles and getting lucky with accuracy because those Iranian missiles are not perfectly accurate.
US will not engage in a pyschotic response if one missile hits a Navy ship. But it will attack targets in Tehran, elsewhere, more economic targets in particular.
The problem I see with Iranian leadership is they're back to being reactive. They're gonna wait for population to riot in streets over economic condition before greenlighting more bold moves by IRGC.
Shags101
Trusted Member
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth warned Iran on Saturday about the U.S. military's capabilities after U.S. Central Command said "a U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple unprovoked Iranian attacks."
"It’s simple: if Iran shoots at U.S. ships, we will destroy (and sink) their oil tankers. All they have to do is not shoot at [the] U.S. Navy," Hegseth wrote on
This is just part of the article I usually just skim through Fox “News” but unless I’m reading it wrong those missiles we’re pretty darn close not saying they’re going to sink an aircraft carrier but must have gave them a scare but honestly like I said these guys are crying saying we are allowed to hit you but you can’t hit us back……honestly we need competent people in our military not wanna be pretty boys
Falcon29
Elite Member
They did not aim at the reactor once. They aimed at infrastructure in the city of Dimona. Also that nuclear facility is deep underground and heavily fortified so it won't even achieve what people assume but would still be a significant strike if it happens. They should have targeted it immediately during 12 day war once their reactors were hit but they're afraid of Israel because Israel has nuclear weapons and they don't. And we saw the US green light a genocide in Gaza. And we have enough to believe they'd greenlight one elsewhere.
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