Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Musings]

Loom at the title of the thread - and look where you are taking it.
I can answer your post and hammer you but it would be off topic.
Respect this thread and stay on topic.

@dbc
I respectfully am trying to bring it back on topic

 

[شَاھِین شَاہِ لَولَاک]

mosad have trump on tape raping children. he will attack iran

 

[Musings]

I agree that China doesn't want a war with NATO in the Middle East. However, if Israel defeats Iran, it will control the Middle East (Turkey will do nothing beyond empty statements.)

If Israel dominates the Middle East unchallenged, it frees up th US to focus on East Asia. On the other hand, as long as the US is bogged down in the Middle East, it complicates its engagement in East Asia.

I am sure China can do the calculations to see which option serves it best.

Those planes landing in Iran last couple of days - do you think China is assisting?

 

[SaadH]

I agree that China doesn't want a war with NATO in the Middle East. However, if Israel defeats Iran, it will control the Middle East (Turkey will do nothing beyond empty statements.)

If Israel dominates the Middle East unchallenged, it frees up th US to focus on East Asia. On the other hand, as long as the US is bogged down in the Middle East, it complicates its engagement in East Asia.

I am sure China can do the calculations to see which option serves it best.

China lacks the killer instinct that only a european genocidal DNA possesses. Hence the century of humiliation and Taiwan still operating as a renegade province.

 

[Bengal71]

One thing to keep in mind is that the current Iranian govt is purely ideological, not a standard type of Government which can be replaced easily, through mock elections like done in other places. They can make any US involvement tough by turning the whole region chaotic (Hormuz, Proxies, Hizbollah, Houthis, Missiles, etc, etc). And still come out unscathed and maybe stronger.

Ariel Sharon did say (and repeated by Yair a few months back) that any dreams of changing the govt in Iran is a waste of time, militarily, it will just unite Iranians. As per him, the only way is to change the minds of Irani people through consistent propaganda. But any such propaganda has been pretty much countered by what has been happening in Gaza and now by Israeli attack. Sharon was also against this attack, saying Israel will give a new life to Iranian Govt if they do so, the more Israel gains, the more Iranians will rally around Khamenei.

So, fall of Iranian govt its not that simple either, just via the US.

There is also the IRGC and Basij militia who are the main defenders of the Islamic revolution. The IRI government is their government, they will protect it.

 

[SaadH]

Where on Earth did you read that in my post?

You have argued that previously with regards to Sistan

 

[Developereo]

And this, as written, can easily tie into the Tweet (is that what it's called on Truth Social?) by Ambassador Huckabee. The President is facing a situation similar to what President Truman faced in July of 1945.

He signed up for the job. He has to deal with the consequences for his decisions.

Trump is caught in a catch-22.

If he says the US is not involved, it makes him look like a clueless impotent fool who got played by Netanyahu.

If he says the US has been in all along, he needs to explain to MAGA what was his end game and what is all this drama about deciding whether to attack Iran? Did he think Iran would not retaliate and it would not escalate, endangering US troops and assets in the region?

To add to that, the US intelligence community under Tulsi Gabbard has come out with the official assessment that Iran is not on the verge of making a nuclear weapon. So now you have a POTUS who may have started a war by trusting Israeli intelligence over US intelligence.

But wait, it gets better. Russia has reportedly ceased all negotiations with the US over Ukraine after this Israel-Iran fiasco.

Netanyahu has singlehandedly screwed Trump in so many ways it's actually fun to watch him.

 

[Developereo]

You have argued that previously with regards to Sistan

Please show me a single post where I have advocated annexing any part of Iran. You have me confused with someone else.

 

[Shazam256]

In a scenario where Trump and Israel destroy Iran's nuclear program, will they stop at that?

Or are they going to aim for a regime change?

 

[Developereo]

Those planes landing in Iran last couple of days - do you think China is assisting?

No, man, just delivering some extra spicy Kung Pao chicken...

NATO and Israel should not pay any attention.

 

[ToqeLowkey]

China lacks the killer instinct that only a european genocidal DNA possesses. Hence the century of humiliation and Taiwan still operating as a renegade province.

read the Chinese intervention during Korean War that was brutal .
Thing is China doesn’t like unnecessary wars that doesn’t endanger mainland .

 

[Shakehands]

Damn it Iran

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[flyingorca]

There are three outcomes from this conflict as far as our western border is concerned:

1. It stays the same, i.e. somewhat problematic but manageable
2. A puppet pro-Israel regime takes over in Iran
3. The central government in Tehran becomes so weak that vast areas become lawless

Which of these scenarios do you think is best for Pakistan?

Should we stick our head in the sand and pretend that we live on an alien planet where the ground realities around us don't matter, or should we think one year ahead into the future and act to promote favorable outcomes?

If the new Iranian government comes, it will be entangled with insurgency. Do you think shias are just going to stay still and let zoroastrians rule over them? The biggest miscalculation the west is going to make that if they topple current regime, Iranians are going to be freed.
Its going to be 50 50 power struggle. The other half would want to restore previous government and the new government will struggle alot. We do not know how and in what way its going to effect pakistan. Maybe the shias may become the good tban for Pakistan and who knows. Maybe Iran may get split in two parts?

 

[tower9]

The Chinese people, in truth, oppose the current actions of the United States from the bottom of their hearts—not merely out of national interest or anti-American sentiment. As a result, they are doing their utmost to avoid becoming the next United States. This is a matter of worldview. In fact, I see it as a positive sign: it suggests that a country with imperial capabilities still harbors an aversion to becoming the next imperialist power.

However, I believe the Chinese are beginning to recognize the harsh realities of the world. From the India–Pakistan conflict, we can see increasingly direct and assertive voices emerging from both the Chinese government and the public. The unexpected decision to sell the J-35A (which surprised many Chinese) also reflects a shift—suggesting that China’s future diplomatic strategy is poised to become more proactive.

As for Iran, given that China's power cannot extend there in the short term—and considering Iran's many internal and external complexities—I believe Iran will still need to stand on its own for some time. Only after China gradually gains a clearer understanding of the situation might it intervene, whether openly or behind the scenes. As a Chinese saying goes: "God helps those who help themselves." If a people demonstrate a firm will to resist, help will naturally come.

As usual, another Chinese person who is overly humble and cautious. There is a time and place for it, now isn't it.

Look, China is already helping Iran. It isn't waiting around. There has been repetitive flights of supply planes with transponders shut off flying into Iran. We don't know what they are carrying. If anything, Iran might already be using radars, air defense missiles assembling missile parts together. I think the Chinese govt. understand the existential nature of this war and if Iran falls, it will deeply hurt China. So they are already acting on it, but doing it quietly as usual.

 

[Bengal71]

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I have sensed this for a while. On that regard, Iran's behaviour is exactly like India's. This behaviour is also the likely reason for not getting the nukes.