Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

the knowledge is there , west knew that iran can restart the program fast if the don't reach a deal , as i said producing it a second time is far much easier than inventing the wheel the first time.
don't forget those component were not handed down to Iran , they were built here and can be built against . our industrial capability is intact .

The knowledge isn't going to get you a deal.

 

[vizier]

Other than Ad - Airforce gaps for the next time Iran should build higher quantities of shaheed drones especially the ones that fly higher like 6000m. Launching shaheed at 50-100m altitude would do nothing they can be brought down with ease by kalashnikov or even a lucky handgun shot.

At 6000m drone swarm and zig - zag maneuver when close to target cannot be taken down by anti-air gun defense. They can only be taken down by expensive sams like patriot or air to air engagement that would keep enemy airforce occupied. Shaheeds are not stealthy to modern radars.

Some newer variants might have some stealth features like Shaheed 238 but they will be much more effective and less detectable flying to target at 6000m altitude than flying at 50-100m altitude at which they can be shot down very easily and cheaply.

How Dangerous Are Russia’s New Kamikaze Drone Jets?

It all comes down to economics. They may go five times faster, but they cost five times more.

www.popularmechanics.com

 

[Hack-Hook]

The knowledge isn't going to get you a deal.

No but knowledge that are building secret facilities that they don't knew what is happening inside them and you don't knew where they are help alot in getting a deal.
Diplomacy is a tool you must not discard it.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Other than Ad - Airforce gaps for the next time Iran should build higher quantities of shaheed drones especially the ones that fly higher like 6000m. Launching shaheed at 50-100m altitude would do nothing they can be brought down with ease by kalashnikov or even a lucky handgun shot.

At 6000m drone swarm and zig - zag maneuver when close to target cannot be taken down by anti-air gun defense. They can only be taken down by expensive sams like patriot or air to air engagement that would keep enemy airforce occupied. Shaheeds are not stealthy to modern radars.

Some newer variants might have some stealth features like Shaheed 238 but they will be much more effective and less detectable flying to target at 6000m altitude than flying at 50-100m altitude at which they can be shot down very easily and cheaply.

How Dangerous Are Russia’s New Kamikaze Drone Jets?

It all comes down to economics. They may go five times faster, but they cost five times more.

www.popularmechanics.com

Flight characteristics is important if they fly very high they don't look like birds to radars

 

[vizier]

Flight characteristics is important if they fly very high they don't look like birds to radars

They can be detected but hunting them down is still more expensive than flying low. It would deplete enemy ad and keep airforce occupied at above 5000m. Reaching them is not as easy as reaching 100m which is very easy and cheap.

They also know the drones are coming in advance and populate the area with cheap low altitude aa guns. At close ranges and altitudes like 100m they can be detected and targeted very easily flying above 180kms speed distinguished away from birds.

Altitude also adds extra range for ground radars to detect the object. Their performance will be lower at 6km altitude at the same range than flying low. That is for the newer shaheed 238 with jet engine and lower rcs. But even shaheed 136 can be good at 5km altitude staying away from aa guns. Only missiles can target them depleting the enemy defense. They can be seen but they cant be hit cheaply.

 

[ShapurII]

No but knowledge that are building secret facilities that they don't knew what is happening inside them and you don't knew where they are help alot in getting a deal.
Diplomacy is a tool you must not discard it.

Yes, but is this situation stable? Can we continue to run a covert nuclear program without the risk of war? If yes, for how long?

It seems that we never had a true contingency plan for this scenario. Of course, I remain foolishly optimistic as always, but most people assumed that Iran would pursue weaponization of its fissile material in a short time when attacked militarily. It hasn't happened so far unfortunately.

Diplomacy is like trading, it's not bad at all. Diplomacy is great and trading is obviously fun and good, but you need to give something to get something. We have to understand that the chance of a diplomatic solution at this point is extremely low because the other side is pushing for our surrender with minimum cost.

 

[retaxis]

Its partially china fault Iran get defeated so easily

China brought Iran and Saudi arabs together. If Saudi gulf arabs were still enemies, US would not attack Iran fearing its response to destroy Gulf arabs. But now that Iran and gulf arabs not enemies, US free to do what it likes to Iran

 

[Hack-Hook]

Yes, but is this situation stable? Can we continue to run a covert nuclear program without the risk of war? If yes, for how long?

It seems that we never had a true contingency plan for this scenario. Of course, I remain foolishly optimistic as always, but most people assumed that Iran would pursue weaponization of its fissile material in a short time when attacked militarily. It hasn't happened so far unfortunately.

Diplomacy is like trading, it's not bad at all. Diplomacy is great and trading is obviously fun and good, but you need to give something to get something. We have to understand that the chance of a diplomatic solution at this point is extremely low because the other side is pushing for our surrender with minimum cost.

the other side was pushing for surrender since khatami time that the negotiation start . when they saw they cant achieve it they agreed on JCPOA

 

[Hack-Hook]

Its partially china fault Iran get defeated so easily

China brought Iran and Saudi arabs together. If Saudi gulf arabs were still enemies, US would not attack Iran fearing its response to destroy Gulf arabs. But now that Iran and gulf arabs not enemies, US free to do what it likes to Iran

its china fault it IR-40 was not redesign and completed .
in jcpoa deal Iran was supposed to stop work on IR-40 original design and china was supposed to redesign IR_40 in a form that produce less Plutonium but till today they still didn't do that

 

[Hack-Hook]

Mr. Zarif interview on infiltration

 

[Hack-Hook]

Mohajerani if it become necessary we increase military budget

 

[nang2]

its china fault it IR-40 was not redesign and completed .
in jcpoa deal Iran was supposed to stop work on IR-40 original design and china was supposed to redesign IR_40 in a form that produce less Plutonium but till today they still didn't do that

Don't make it sound like China has an obligation to redesign it. A simple search found me two news pieces. Both were in 2016 and both were from Tehran Times with 1 month apart.

IR-40 redesign under discussion with China: Iran

TEHRAN – The spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has said the redesign of the Arak heavy water reactor, aka IR-40, is fervently pursued through technical talks with China.

www.tehrantimes.com

China demanding too much for IR-40 redesign: Iran

TEHRAN – The spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has said that China has demanded too much money if it is to redesign the Arak heavy water reactor (IR-40), Mehr reported on Wednesday.

www.tehrantimes.com

Nuclear technology is a strategic asset. Iran makes it sound like an ordinary commercial asset.

Overall, Iran gives me an impression of non-seriousness about their nuclear program at all. If Iran doesn't take it serious, why should anyone else? The reality shows us that pretty much everyone tries to steer clear from it.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Iran must also plot. Iran must also scheme.

Iran must work out what it wants to achieve if Israel attacks again. Iran must work out how it will achieve those goals and how long it will take to achieve those goals and have an actionable plan that it will work towards that specific goal. Iran should learn to continue to achieve that plan, even if Israel asks for a ceasefire, until its goals are achieved.

Iran needs to get out of this reactive cycle of tit-for-tat where Israel defines, executes and "achieves its goals" and Iran simply weakly retaliates and then promises "hell" if the Israeli's do something again.

Right now, Iran looks very weak, and ready for the picking as it has shown it is incapable of fighting a war at "any" level. There was once an image of Iran where it was the big bad wolf of the region that you dare not f--- around with. Iran's conduct of the war with Israel has clearly shown it is not the big bad wolf. At best, a baby 'pup'.

Iran has lost it deterrence because its stamina for war, it's capabilities for war, and it's repeated empty threats of war have proven to be very hollow. Iran needs to lean how to re-asset a deterrence against Israel and then how to execute that plan, no matter how loudly people cry for a ceasefire if Iran believes it has deterrence of substance and value that it wants to asset.

What this defense minister should be doing is working out how to reassert deterrence and actually imposing a cost on Israel where Iran is actually in control. Let's see if anything will come of it(I suspect not), or if they will just "trash talk again"(more likely).

 

[Hack-Hook]

Don't make it sound like China has an obligation to redesign it. A simple search found me two news pieces. Both were in 2016 and both were from Tehran Times with 1 month apart.

IR-40 redesign under discussion with China: Iran

TEHRAN – The spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has said the redesign of the Arak heavy water reactor, aka IR-40, is fervently pursued through technical talks with China.

www.tehrantimes.com

China demanding too much for IR-40 redesign: Iran

TEHRAN – The spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has said that China has demanded too much money if it is to redesign the Arak heavy water reactor (IR-40), Mehr reported on Wednesday.

www.tehrantimes.com

Nuclear technology is a strategic asset. Iran makes it sound like an ordinary commercial asset.

Overall, Iran gives me an impression of non-seriousness about their nuclear program at all. If Iran doesn't take it serious, why should anyone else? The reality shows us that pretty much everyone tries to steer clear from it.

it was part of the jcpoa deal

China didn't have any obligation to redesign it but after jcpoa the deal was Iran dismantle the core and China redesign it and then it be built by n
International partners such as China check Republic and Germany.
The redesign part didn't happened

 

[nang2]

Ran into an interesting piece on Iran nuclear program, China and Russia.

Tehran’s Ties With Beijing and Moscow

The Trump administration’s efforts to isolate Iran still face a major hurdle as China and Russia move to capitalize on the business opportunities emerging in the wake of European withdrawals. Understand the Russia Iran relationship and the Iran China relationship.

www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com

This is a site that is dedicated to dismantle nuclear Iran. Combined this piece and comments from Iranian members here, it appears China isn't satisfied by either side. I guess if China stayed out of it, Iran would have been regime changed long time ago. Maybe that is what most Iranians wanted anyway.