Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Shafagh]

And if Iran had nukes, neither the jews nor the US would have attacked in the first place.

I disagree.

If Iran had nukes, the Israelis and Americans may tone down support for separatist groups in Iran, but they would absolutely continue sabotage attacks, cyber attacks, bombings, assassinations.

None of those activities would warrant a nuclear response, and if Iran did respond with a nuclear weapon, it would be the end. You don't think U.S and Israelis would retaliate with a nuclear weapon?

Ahmadinejad knows this. In an interview during his presidency, he said "If we used a nuke, our cities would burn"

Those nukes sit in their silos.

The time to get a nuke is over.

It's time to think of a different form of deterrence.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I disagree.

If Iran had nukes, the Israelis and Americans may tone down support for separatist groups in Iran, but they would absolutely continue sabotage attacks, cyber attacks, bombings, assassinations.

None of those activities would warrant a nuclear response, and if Iran did respond with a nuclear weapon, it would be the end. You don't think U.S and Israelis would retaliate with a nuclear weapon?

Ahmadinejad knows this. In an interview during his presidency, he said "If we used a nuke, our cities would burn"

Those nukes sit in their silos.

The time to get a nuke is over.

It's time to think of a different form of deterrence.

Nukes are the ultimate deterence. IF the Palestinians had EVEN 2 nuclear devices, the genocide in Gaza would not have happened.

 

[Garcia Sea]

ran's leadership is completely in denial of reality. It is Israel, it is Netanyahu, that will determine Iran's fate.
What is the point of negotiations with the IAEA, the US, or the EU? They will fully support Netanyahu if he attacks Iran, defending Israel with their vast air power, providing aerial refueling, and supplying weapons as if they were unlimited.
Any negotiation is futile unless Netanyahu says he will spare Iran, and that is 100% impossible.
The reformists actually understand this, but they are simply in denial.

 

[BigMela2onin]

I disagree.

If Iran had nukes, the Israelis and Americans may tone down support for separatist groups in Iran, but they would absolutely continue sabotage attacks, cyber attacks, bombings, assassinations.

None of those activities would warrant a nuclear response, and if Iran did respond with a nuclear weapon, it would be the end. You don't think U.S and Israelis would retaliate with a nuclear weapon?

Ahmadinejad knows this. In an interview during his presidency, he said "If we used a nuke, our cities would burn"

Those nukes sit in their silos.

The time to get a nuke is over.

It's time to think of a different form of deterrence.

I mean the jews would not have bombed Iran openly and neither would the US. Of course covert warfare continues.

 

[ToddE]

Iran has been brought down systematically. Years and years of planning by historical enemies of Iran and decades of patience but finally its happening.

Shahi Iran was too powerful for Turkey, Russia, Arab league, UK, France to bring down on itself, all historical enemies of Iran. Worlds 4th largest military with a powerful Airforce, trained by US itself. Also the historical heritage weight was there, something that no country bordering Iran could claim. Iran was more empowered by US than Israel. It had worlds 12th largest Economy by GDP at one point. KGB targeted the nationalist Shahi Government through leftist sentiments originated during WWII and Mossadegh Fiasco. Shah was too lenient towards this poison being seeded in the Iranian society. When he could not control this USSR pushed agents, west parachuted the Mullahs in to turn tables on USSR. They played the same game in Afghanistan, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran to create a "Islamic Crescent" against USSR/Russia. Iran entered the dark ages under this Islamo-Marxist system. System got butchered, the nation that was supposed to become Japan or France of Middle east became North Korea minus the nukes. Iranian lives no longer matter, IRI's illiterate mullahs want to sacrifice a 3000 years old empire for their "principles". They have partially already succeeded.

 

[Hack-Hook]

okay, lets pretend there are no water or power shortages in Iran. feel better now?

when you have such level of propaganda, it's obviously not Iranian, but rather comes from some European / US / Israeli troll

This Saturday closures Is rationalise for lack of water and energy , the real reason is Tuesday is closed , Friday is closed and Sunday is also close
They wanted to close Saturday so thee go wacation from Wednesday evening till Sunday night

 

[ShapurII]

Next time Jews won't be spared

Next time, next time, next time...

TP1 was a weak response: It was just a warning. Next time we will finish off Israel.
TP2 we hit the middle of nowhere: We didn't want to turn it into a war. Next time we will finish off Israel.
TP3 they actually launched a war on us: No, it's not a war. If we refuse to declare a war, everyone should assume it's not. Next time we will finish off Israel...

It's a sad comedy.

 

[ShapurII]

One of Iranian pilgrims in Arbaeen was beaten by the Iraqi police for having an Iranian flag. We have people here who say our problems are all history and we and Iraqis are the besties now.

واکنش تند ابوعزرائیل به برخورد با پرچم ایران

ابوعزرائیل به فیلم وایرال شده از برخورد یک نظامی عراقی با زائر ایرانی که پرچم ایران داشت، به شدت واکنش نشان داد. او خطاب به این عناصر معدود گفت: «آبروی ما را بردید، از امام حسین خجالت بکشید» اعتراض این فرمانده مقاومت عراق را با زیرنویس فارسی می‌بینید و می‌شنوید.

www.tabnak.ir

 

[Shafagh]

ran's leadership is completely in denial of reality. It is Israel, it is Netanyahu, that will determine Iran's fate.
What is the point of negotiations with the IAEA, the US, or the EU? They will fully support Netanyahu if he attacks Iran, defending Israel with their vast air power, providing aerial refueling, and supplying weapons as if they were unlimited.
Any negotiation is futile unless Netanyahu says he will spare Iran, and that is 100% impossible.
The reformists actually understand this, but they are simply in denial.

It is not impossible. Trump is a populist. Even if he is compromised, his voters have his ear. At the very least, Iran could distance him from participating in Netanyahu's wars. You need to give your adversary what they want... just not the way they want it.

It's worth a shot. Just give up enrichment, wait until he leaves office. It is a bitter pill to swallow, but other countries have negotiated under far worse circumstances. Get several billions in sanction relief, reduce tensions a little bit, deal with Israel one on one. Stabilize the economy, dump a few billion back into the air force and focus on one or two projects, use F5, Owj, Sofre Mahi, as base.

Send officials to CNN and Fox news and get a message across to Americans, MAGA especially. Half of them are turning on Israel already. Say what you want about Zarif, but he did a great job painting Iran as the victim, and appealing to more liberal minded western audiences.

Israelis and Neo-cons see Iran regime change as "kill the supreme leader and senior leadership" and the regime will end. Islamic Republic is not a single unitary one party dictatorship; it is an institution. There are factions and institutions that divide power. They think the subsequent power vaccuum would tear the country apart. It is possible, I am not naiive. But to be honest, Iranians are not arabs, who turn against themselves at the flip of a coin. I trust they can rebuild government. If Israel, attacks, then even easier for Iran.

Every country that they toppled has had governance concentrated around 1 single authority i.e Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad etc. This led to a complete anarchy that I don't expect to occur in Iran.

Put together younger, smarter minds. People from Sepah/Artesh step up, put together a technocratic council, rebuild the country. There are people like this on the principalist and the reform side.

At least Iran would emerge from this as the only country to have smacked Israel around and survived.

 

[Eşbah]

If we are all in consensus that Israel will launch another potentially deadly assault on Iran, then why isn't the Iranian leadership the one to catch Israel off guard with a significant strike? Why wait for the Israeli offensive to react? Why defer the unavoidable? Why not take control of the situation and be the power house that establishes the initiative? Being the first to strike offers numerous strategic benefits as well.

 

[Shafagh]

If we are all in consensus that Israel will launch another potentially deadly assault on Iran, then why isn't the Iranian leadership the one to catch Israel off guard with a significant strike? Why wait for the Israeli offensive to react? Why defer the unavoidable? Why not take control of the situation and be the power house that establishes the initiative? Being the first to strike offers numerous strategic benefits as well.

They are afraid of U.S response. Iran cannot build a narrative for international audience, like Israel can.

That's why I said my post above about starting to work on Public relations, international diplomacy, to depict Iran as the victim.

No more of this "IsRaEl CaNnoT tOuCh uS, we wiLl wiPe tHem ofF tHe mAP" and then get bombed and lose entire senior command in one night. That is absolutely stupid.

 

[ShapurII]

It is not impossible. Trump is a populist. Even if he is compromised, his voters have his ear. At the very least, Iran could distance him from participating in Netanyahu's wars. You need to give your adversary what they want... just not the way they want it.

It's worth a shot. Just give up enrichment, wait until he leaves office. It is a bitter pill to swallow, but other countries have negotiated under far worse circumstances. Get several billions in sanction relief, reduce tensions a little bit, deal with Israel one on one. Stabilize the economy, dump a few billion back into the air force and focus on one or two projects, use F5, Owj, Sofre Mahi, as base.

Send officials to CNN and Fox news and get a message across to Americans, MAGA especially. Half of them are turning on Israel already. Say what you want about Zarif, but he did a great job painting Iran as the victim, and appealing to more liberal minded western audiences.

Israelis and Neo-cons see Iran regime change as "kill the supreme leader and senior leadership" and the regime will end. Islamic Republic is not a single unitary one party dictatorship; it is an institution. There are factions and institutions that divide power. They think the subsequent power vaccuum would tear the country apart. It is possible, I am not naiive. But to be honest, Iranians are not arabs, who turn against themselves at the flip of a coin. I trust they can rebuild government. If Israel, attacks, then even easier for Iran.

Every country that they toppled has had governance concentrated around 1 single authority i.e Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad etc. This led to a complete anarchy that I don't expect to occur in Iran.

Put together younger, smarter minds. People from Sepah/Artesh step up, put together a technocratic council, rebuild the country. There are people like this on the principalist and the reform side.

At least Iran would emerge from this as the only country to have smacked Israel around and survived.

Way too late for that.

First of all, there's no uranium enrichment left to give up.
According to Araghchi, uranium enrichment has come to a halt and Iran's 60%-enriched uranium has been trapped under Fordow and is now inaccessible.

Secondly, the Europeans want to extend the snapback mechanism for another 6 months to have more control over Iran, i.e. they want to dictate Iran what to do and what not to do and extend this 6 months by 6 months. If Iran says no, they will reimpose all sanctions on Iran.

Meanwhile, the illegitimate Ayatollah regime is completely silent on why they passed the JCPOA with the snapback mechanism in 20 minutes. Nobody wants to explain how a terrible deal like this was passed in 2015 by the parliament in merely 20 minutes. They want to blame this on the reformists, but nobody buys that anymore.
I even remember that one of the parliament members, it was Motahari if I remember correctly, said that even 20 minutes for passing the JCPOA was too long.

Imagine a deal where your enemy can reimpose all sanctions any moment they want to without even needing to prove that you have violated the deal, while they haven't even fulfilled their end of the bargain.

Thirdly, Trump sees the Ayatollahs of Iran as the US #1 enemy in this part of the world. The idea that Trump would give them a free pass while they have been nearly defeated is delusional.

We are in the middle of a war now. Both sides at this point understand that negotiations are just a cover to buy time to prepare for the next round.

 

[Shafagh]

Way too late for that.

First of all, there's no uranium enrichment left to give up.
According to Araghchi, uranium enrichment has come to a halt and Iran's 60%-enriched uranium has been trapped under Fordow and is now inaccessible

No it's not. Look, Trump was ready to lift sanctions on oil sales to China immediately after the war. They could have gotten the ball rolling.

Of course Araghchi is going to say that. Why would he admit it if the uranium was moved?

Secondly, the Europeans want to extend the snapback mechanism for another 6 months to have more control over Iran, i.e. they want to dictate Iran what to do and what not to do and extend 6 months by 6 months

Does Iran have a choice? If it isn't Europe dictating, it is the Americans.

Imagine a deal where your enemy can return all sanctions any moment they want to without even needing to prove that you have violated the deal, while they haven't even fulfilled their end of the bargain.

That's why they should have pulled all liquid assets out of western bank accounts at the outset of the JCPOA. Convert it to gold, and other non fiat resource. Spend it right away on equipment for microprocessors, start some purchases of Chinese arms.

Thirdly, Trump sees the Ayatollahs of Iran as the US number one enemy in this part of the world. The idea that Trump would give them a free pass while they have been nearly defeated is delusional.

Well, that is the Ayatollah's fault. In any case, he needs to step down and there needs to be new management. Again, regime change in Iran will not look like regime change in arab countries.

Iran needs sharp, young, grounded, knowledgeable leaders. Not mullahs who spent majority of their lives studying in some seminary in Qom, and then shittily leading troops in human wave attacks in the 80s.

Look at Mahmoud Alavi, Ismaeil Khatib. Just look at them! Did anyone really think they would be effective running ministry of intelligence?

You know, it makes me angry, but they spent their years cracking down on young people for bad hijab, hardline clerics trying to ban pet dogs, harassing university students. In the end, the biggest threats traitors came from within Sepah, broke ass illegal immigrants from Afghanistan, and themselves for pissing off young people to the extent they started setting fire to the streets.

Iran has the people to take these roles and put some agreement together with the west. If not, then they will at least rebuild the country. I read a post where someone said even if Iran becomes ruins, I love this ruins. There is no shortage of people like this.

I know I am digressing from your 3rd point, sorry. I ranted too much.

 

[Michael]

If Iran had nukes, the Israelis and Americans may tone down support for separatist groups in Iran, but they would absolutely continue sabotage attacks, cyber attacks, bombings, assassinations.
None of those activities would warrant a nuclear response, and if Iran did respond with a nuclear weapon, it would be the end. You don't think U.S and Israelis would retaliate with a nuclear weapon?

In international politics, when you are in a weak position, it is best to say less and do more.

The power of speech comes from your own hard power.
When your hard power is strong enough, you don't even need to speak; a glance is enough to strike fear into your opponents.
When your hard power is weak, no matter how hard you try to shout, no one will take your warnings seriously.

In the field of nuclear weapons, you either completely abandon nuclear weapons or you detonate one to show the world.

Iran has taken the most foolish approach. It constantly threatens the world that it will build nuclear weapons, but in reality, it has made no progress. Despite years of nuclear sanctions, it still does not possess nuclear weapons......

 

[ShapurII]

No it's not. Look, Trump was ready to lift sanctions on oil sales to China immediately after the war. They could have gotten the ball rolling.

Of course Araghchi is going to say that. Why would he admit it if the uranium was moved?

That was a PR move. You cannot take what Trump says as facts. There's no evidence that China asked Trump for permission to increase its oil purchase from Iran.

Because they have 24/7 satellite coverage with <5cm resolution. Do you seriously think they cannot find out if the uranium had been moved or not?
Do you remember the photo Trump posted a few years ago of a failed missile launch in Iran? The resolution was extremely good. So good that even fine prints on the missile could be read.

Does Iran have a choice? If it isn't Europe dictating, it is the Americans.

That's why they should have pulled all liquid assets out of western bank accounts at the outset of the JCPOA. Convert it to gold, and other non fiat resource. Spend it right away on equipment for microprocessors, start some purchases of Chinese arms.


Well, that is the Ayatollah's fault. In any case, he needs to step down and there needs to be new management. Again, regime change in Iran will not look like regime change in arab countries.

Iran needs sharp, young, grounded, knowledgeable leaders. Not mullahs who spent majority of their lives studying in some seminary in Qom, and then shittily leading troops in human wave attacks in the 80s.

Look at Mahmoud Alavi, Ismaeil Khatib. Just look at them! Did anyone really think they would be effective running ministry of intelligence?

You know, it makes me angry, but they spent their years cracking down on young people for bad hijab, hardline clerics trying to ban pet dogs, harassing university students. In the end, the biggest threats traitors came from within Sepah, broke ass illegal immigrants from Afghanistan, and themselves for pissing off young people to the extent they started setting fire to the streets.

Iran has the people to take these roles and put some agreement together with the west. If not, then they will at least rebuild the country. I read a post where someone said even if Iran becomes ruins, I love this ruins. There is no shortage of people like this.

I know I am digressing from your 3rd point, sorry. I ranted too much.

Agreed.
If we had a normal regime, Iran would've had a choice. But with this regime, I don't think so. Iran's nuclear adventures seem over at this point. I hope I'll be proven wrong soon, but it seems so.