Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Shafagh]

People need to stop with this Hasbara BS about interception rates. The interception rate was a fantasy. Most interceptions were decoys. This was an American operation with Israel being involved. The real target is China's Belt and Road. We can only hope to see the cloud soon. Iran is a nuclear-weapon state. You can't get any more pro-Zionist than CSIS. Summary below

1-Iran preserved much of its nuclear knowledge and engineering workforce.
2-Underground facilities at Fordow were largely unaffected
3-DIA’s leaked “limited effect” report (written with low confidence) should not be over-interpreted.
4- underground sites remain active.
5-Fate of 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium — enough for 9–10 bombs if taken to weapons-grade. Location unknown
6-The program’s future depends on whether Iran rebuilds openly, covertly, or accepts diplomatic limits.

Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild?

U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.

www.csis.org

If what you say is true, there won't be a round 2. If they do initiate round 2, Iran didn't deter anything. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

I think you are greatly overestimating Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

If what you say is true, there won't be a round 2. If they do initiate round 2, Iran didn't deter anything. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

I think you are greatly overestimating Iran.

10 weeks later, we cannot even dig the debris out to see what has happened to our nuclear facilities and he thinks our HEU is safe and the future of it depends on us lol

Imagine begging the E3 for below 1% enrichment and still getting rejected and you think the future is in your hands lmao You can't make this shit up

 

[KingQamaR]

Not very easily. It takes 15-20 missiles launched for 2-3 getting through. That is 85% interception rate.

After all those interceptions, the missiles that get through are not delivering much damage.

I think part of this is they thought they needed to play the long game with Israel, and decided to ration missiles, sending small salvos, with both sides racing to see who would run out first.

To me it’s clear that Iran used the initial less advanced missiles to reduce Israeli air defences, while their actual striking campaign only started with the use of the advanced missiles without being able to prevent it, be it with Air Defence or Zionists offensive strikes on Iran.

 

[Shafagh]

To me it’s clear that Iran used the initial less advanced missiles to reduce Israeli air defences, while their actual striking campaign only started with the use of the advanced missiles without being able to prevent it, be it with Air Defence or Zionists offensive strikes on Iran.

It doesn't matter what Iran used. If Israeli jets continued hitting Iran right up until the final hour on day 12, then Iranian missiles did not, or insufficiently detered Israel. After a few weeks, some new satellite imagery surfaced, which revealed undisclosed damage to Israel, and Al Udeid air base in Qatar.

But nothing major like destroyed airbases, destroyed Israeli jets on tarmacs.

It is possible Israel didn't lose a single fighter jet.

We will see in the coming days or weeks if a second attack occurs.

 

[KingQamaR]

It doesn't matter what Iran used. If Israeli jets continued hitting Iran right up until the final hour on day 12, then Iranian missiles did not, or insufficiently detered Israel. After a few weeks, some new satellite imagery surfaced, which revealed undisclosed damage to Israel, and Al Udeid air base in Qatar.

But nothing major like destroyed airbases, destroyed Israeli jets on tarmacs.

It is possible Israel didn't lose a single fighter jet.


We will see in the coming days or weeks if a second attack occurs.

It’s highly dateable statement from you that Iran “lost military or achieved no damage”. So you honestly believe that Israel would agree to stop the conflict if they had the upper hand in attrition?

 

[TruthSeeker]

I cannot think of a single parallel in world history wherein a nation has sacrificed as much as Iran has for another people, the Palestinians. There is no rational, logical reason for Iranians to have given so much of their energy and resources to some else's cause, for the past 45 years, as Iran has done for the Palestinian cause. There is no economic reason, no reason of kinship, no reason of military strategy for this focus and sacrifice of other possible opportunities for the Iranian people's well-being. Can't you see this?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Not very easily. It takes 15-20 missiles launched for 2-3 getting through. That is 85% interception rate.

After all those interceptions, the missiles that get through are not delivering much damage.

the missiles that hit Tel Aviv did huge damage against 'soft' targets like apartment complexes

it's basically a war crime by targeting civilians but (i) Israel does the same and worse to every other country including Iran and (ii) Israel puts its core military assets (HQs, air defences) in urban areas.

 

[ShapurII]

the missiles that hit Tel Aviv did huge damage against 'soft' targets like apartment complexes

it's basically a war crime by targeting civilians but (i) Israel does the same and worse to every other country including Iran and (ii) Israel puts its core military assets (HQs, air defences) in urban areas.

I wouldn't call Weizmann Institute of Science a soft target though. From what I remember, it was reinforced concrete.

We hit HaKirya too. It didn't collapse, but we did cause some structural damage to the building with one missile. We might've been successful had we hit it with something like K-4.

 

[Shafagh]

the missiles that hit Tel Aviv did huge damage against 'soft' targets like apartment complexes

it's basically a war crime by targeting civilians but (i) Israel does the same and worse to every other country including Iran and (ii) Israel puts its core military assets (HQs, air defences) in urban areas.

Sorry, no you are right. What I meant to say is that Iran's missiles did not significantly deter Israel's ability to launch counter attacks. In this aspect, their military infrastructure was not heavily damaged.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I wouldn't call Weizmann Institute of Science a soft target though. From what I remember, it was reinforced concrete.

We hit HaKirya too. It didn't collapse, but we did cause some structural damage to the building with one missile. We might've been successful had we hit it with something like K-4.

I am not sure about it being built with reinforced concrete.

what is HaKirya? the IDF HQ? the Fox News guy said there was some light damage to windows there but it's not clear that was a direct hit. did you see evidence it was?

 

[ShapurII]

I am not sure about it being built with reinforced concrete.

what is HaKirya? the IDF HQ? the Fox News guy said there was some light damage to windows there but it's not clear that was a direct hit. did you see evidence it was?

You can see reinforcing bars that are visible. This photo is from Weizmann.

As for HaKirya, Google is doing an extreme censorship to pretend it was not hit. But I remember very clearly that it was hit and we did some structural damage to the ground floor. A direct impact could be seen very clearly. And that's why the Israelis said it would take 3-4 months to reopen Netanyahu's office there.

 

[Shafagh]

It’s highly dateable statement from you that Iran “lost military or achieved no damage”. So you honestly believe that Israel would agree to stop the conflict if they had the upper hand in attrition?

It's not that cut and dry. I think they were running out of interceptors and needed a pause to resupply.

Israel is playing the long game here. As another user, I think Immortal or ShapurII has stated; they want a country they can bomb over and over with impunity.

With a country as large as Iran, with so many missiles, they need to take their time to wear them down. Remember, Israel has all of the west re-arming them, and zero economic sanctions.

Iran's economy is essentially under embargo, and the noose is going to tighten even more in the coming month or so as JCPOA snap-back provisions re-instate U.N. sanctions.

It does not have the infrastructure to rebuild its air defence network that quickly. Heck, there is no air force! They didn't even go up against Israeli jets.

Guys, I really hope I am wrong here. But for Iran to prevail would require major industrial output, and the political will to escalate with larger attacks, large enough to do considerable damage to Israel's military infrastructure so that they cannot retaliate.

 

[FUB]

I cannot think of a single parallel in world history wherein a nation has sacrificed as much as Iran has for another people, the Palestinians. There is no rational, logical reason for Iranians to have given so much of their energy and resources to some else's cause, for the past 45 years, as Iran has done for the Palestinian cause. There is no economic reason, no reason of kinship, no reason of military strategy for this focus and sacrifice of other possible opportunities for the Iranian people's well-being. Can't you see this?

It is a tragedy. These old ideologues have shackled the Iranian nation for 45 years. After the revolution, Khomeini shut down the Israeli embassy and handed it over to the PLO. In the Iran-Iraq war, the same Palestinians were siding with Saddam. Instead of admitting the failure, IR doubles and triples down on the strategic mistakes. It is like the radical left in the US. A man can be a woman, trans rights, and a moral nihilism. Let's worship a convicted criminal and make a monument for him. It is the same shit. Let's worship a cleric and his ideas in 2025 at the detriment of 90 million.

 

[kastor ville]

I wouldn't call Weizmann Institute of Science a soft target though. From what I remember, it was reinforced concrete.

We hit HaKirya too. It didn't collapse, but we did cause some structural damage to the building with one missile. We might've been successful had we hit it with something like K-4.

I was about to say the same...you don't worry about civilian vs military when you're up against war criminals

 

[kastor ville]

It is a tragedy. These old ideologues have shackled the Iranian nation for 45 years. After the revolution, Khomeini shut down the Israeli embassy and handed it over to the PLO. In the Iran-Iraq war, the same Palestinians were siding with Saddam. Instead of admitting the failure, IR doubles and triples down on the strategic mistakes. It is like the radical left in the US. A man can be a woman, trans rights, and a moral nihilism. Let's worship a convicted criminal and make a monument for him. It is the same shit. Let's worship a cleric and his ideas in 2025 at the detriment of 90 million.

I don't even blame them....I blame our culture for bringing up unworldly, gullible people. If our people weren't so naive these guys wouldn't have lasted almost 50 yrs....the minute unemployment and poverty would hit high levels they would've demanded their heads....but instead the poor people abide.