No way can Russia deliver 85 new planes in 4months from now given all the supply side issues they have and the throughput of their factories. Even If Russia transfers from their own existing inventory, it does not sound realistic.
Russia has about 118 xSu35s units, so 100 makes little sense :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft
Even more difficult is for Iran to absorb so many so quickly. Even if it immediately decomissions fleets of jets to transfer pilots over, the training time is still significant. What about all the support and maintenance infrastructure ?
India’ operates over 270 of the older SU-30 MKI ‘indian’ variant and just signed a deal for 240 AL-31FP engines (over 8 year period) for its fleet a few months ago.
I think 12 aircraft delivered to Iran a year is more realistic with delivering taking till 2030 to be complete if such a number existed. But I doubt Iran will buy 100. Maybe 24-48.
SU-35 won’t be a highly competitive fighter a decade from now in the world of 5th gen and 6th gen fighters. So dumping all that money for such a large quantity of a plane that is merely a STOP GAP plane is a waste.
Iran would be better survived trying to be a part of either:
SU-75 checkmate project
Buying 24 SU-57 in coming years to help secure airspace
MIG 5th gen project
Russia so far has shown no interest in helping Iran in acquiring high grade offensive weapons systems. Putin is likely still irked that Iran didn’t hand over any ballistic missiles or provide some of its tanks/artillery pieces/etc for the Ukraine war effort like North Korea has done.
It appears whatever this “geopolitical strategic deal” they agreeing might be the hold up to this SU-35 transfer from being completed. I wonder what Putin is asking for, right now Russia holds much more leverage in negotiations than Iran does.
I wouldn’t be surprised if one day we learn that Putin offered Iran a strategic alliance, but that it would have required:
-iran sending AoR groups and even Iranian volunteers (like Basij forces) to the war front
-providing large amounts of military production to feed Russian army including from existing stockpiles
-providing missiles and cruise missiles
Naturally Iran’s establishment would balk at such a request, knowing full well it would likely permanently burn what few bridges remain back to world economy re-integration as the Europeans will see Iran as aiding Putin’s war on Europe.
And that’s at basically the major problem with Iran-Russia-China strategic axis that never materialized despite the logical opportunity’s Iran doesn’t want to provide Russia and China the assurances they seek. Russia and China think Iran is also one agreement away from jumping back into bed with the Westerners. None of the parties trust the other for such an iron clad commitment.
