Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[jauk]

It will eventually be approved in some fashion (maybe with changes). However, due to Israeli genocide in Gaza and bad press, US has image issue approving it. Plus it’s the only card US has left as leverage against Bibi.

However an attack by Iran will force a “rally around Israel” and Bibi will get his $14B instantly.

So you can see why he is more than happy to have Iran do a “measured” response on Israeli soil. Bibi gets free reign to strike Iran (if he wants), draws in more US military support, gets $14B dollars in aid, and has Iran distract from the ongoing genocide.

I’m the first to argue against ‘blind retaliation’ as you and others are well aware. A proper retaliation has to meet many criteria—perhaps yours is one.

So Iran should retaliate if it can meet specific strategic objectives. We’ll see.

That said, the main thrust of my position is that Iran should never put herself in a reactive position. Reacting, by definition, means many more option branches are culled that would’ve existed in a pre-emptive (action) position. In fact, one can solidly argue Iran has forced Zionia to react. If that is the case, then Iran no longer needs to do anything at all and maintain the status quo.

 

[RescueRanger]

IAF tanker Boeing 707-300 call sign GIANT is up in the air above Hebron:

 

[jauk]

How do you think Iran will respond and when? Any imagination here?

I do. But not going to jinx it. The time it’s taking is very telling. To me.

I believe any retaliation is either not going to satisfy the Lollipop Guild (I.e Iran unnecessarily bowing to irrational public opinion) or it’s going to be dramatic to an extent not discussed here.

Hint.

 

[jauk]

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[mangekyo]

All these leaks and bravado statements warning of the Revenge attack does is increase hype for what undoubtedly will be a underwhelming Iranian response.

It could be a deescalatory tactic. Build up a lot of hype so that when the attack comes, Israel feeling they got off easy, won’t retaliate.

 

[mangekyo]

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Israel removes its mask, hope that Iranians will know that Israel is the ally of nobody

Israel openly threatening to attack civilian targets. Big surprise.

 

[Immortals]

So Iran should retaliate if it can meet specific strategic objectives. We’ll see.

You can’t achieve much if any strategic objectives thru the air unless it’s extensive and even results are subpar. Case in point the current US air campaign in Yemen has demonstrated unability to stop Red Sea attacks, despite destroying alot of targets in Yemen.

With respect to Iran, the issue is the attack happened on consulate grounds and by the extension Iranian soil. Countries are hyper sensitve on their embassies/consulates. I will go as far as saying if those same IRGC generals were hit in a vehicle or a random residential building then Iran wouldn’t attack. It would do its usual statement of revenge and chalk it up as cost of doing business in Syria.

I wont be suprised if this event leads to a new rule where no IRGC officers can meet inside diplomatic grounds in Syria/Lebanon. Since IRGC routinely suffers from catastrophic failures in OpSec, they have now put a entire nation at risk for their incompetence. Thus Iran will ensure it will never be forced in another situation where it is FORCED to respond because of its own internal incompetence

 

[Immortals]

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[tsunset]

Israel openly threatening to attack civilian targets. Big surprise.

If such a thing happen, Israelis (civilians) should also be massacred. Simple logic

But everyone knows they wouldn't dare trying to do what they do to Palestinians to Iran without massive reprisals

Im not muslim but i still pray for Tehrani Moghaddam for never ever letting that happen

 

[Nuffle]

We are not military experts or tacticians and politicians with decades of experience on the field, most of us and this forum don't have any diploms in engineering or in the army as tacticians and decision making

All we know is that the settings for retaliating here is a hard one, and this is certainly not us that will think of the right one

But I didn't ask for any of that. I just asked for personal opinion.

 

[Nuffle]

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Israeli publication Ynet alleges that the IDF and Mossad approved a plan to attack Iran

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POLITICO: The CIA says Iran's response will happen in the next 3 days.
Now instead of 48 hours it’s 72 hours

 

[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

These “intelligence leaks” are becoming blatant sensationalism. As if any source that MIGHT exist inside Khameani’s office would leak his thought process to anyone other than MI6/Mossad/CIA handlers. As if those same handlers would risk their source by telling a newspaper.

Leaking to a newspaper is a great way for Iran’s counter intelligence to locate the leaker/mole by feeding the suspect(s) bogus “Intel” and seeing which version gets leaked.

Then there’s also the act of Iranpurposely leaking fake Intel so that the enemy doesn’t know their true cards.

Very complex spy v spy game. Unlikely WSJ has any Intel that highly classified inside Khamenai inner circle. Reminds me of when they said Putin had cancer and his inner circle of doctors were following him everywhere.

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[Xerxes22]

Right now there is $14B aid bill for Israel stuck in Congress. An Iranian strike would get that approved immediately.

So either way Israel will be happy with an Iranian strike. They get $14B and they know Iran has to pick it’s target extremely carefully. So for Israel it’s a win win situation.

At this point it’s clear Iran boxed itself into a corner that it doesn’t want to be in. All these leaks and bravado statements warning of the Revenge attack does is increase hype for what undoubtedly will be a underwhelming Iranian response.

Well then they shudnt have done that. I am not going to defend the leadership on this. The truth is the truth. And as I said, the highest leadership lacks the decisiveness to react properly to situations. They dont seem to have the courage to confront the enemy and deal with the dynamics as they shud.

 

[Xerxes22]

I do. But not going to jinx it. The time it’s taking is very telling. To me.

I believe any retaliation is either not going to satisfy the Lollipop Guild (I.e Iran unnecessarily bowing to irrational public opinion) or it’s going to be dramatic to an extent not discussed here.

Hint.

Are you hinting towards declaring nuclear deterrence or sumthing?