Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

unless Hezbollah have a special plan to target civilians only and in mass (do a massacer by aiming at shelters and crowded areas)

so we are back to promoting war crimes and massacres of civilians

 

[tsunset]

so we are back to promoting war crimes and massacres of civilians

I only said if they have such a plan to revenge the plausible carpet bombing, which i doubt they have, Hezbollah since 1982 never targeted civilians on purpose to get them dead, and from the drone footages inside Haifa, this proves that if Hezbollah wanted to massacre civilians, it would have been done a very long time ago

Hezbollah proven to have discipline and basic ethics in its fights

I dont adhere with a civilian massacre plan even if Lebanon stand with massive casualties, this would then turn into a war of terror and massively cost PR for Hezbollah by employing the same techniques as IDF

 

[Immortals]

But you don´t build 1.200 IR6 centrifugees just for Khamenei´s ban because religious matters. You have all of those for building nukes.

Do you you been attention to the world?

AI, EV, etc is incredibly energy taxing. Iran is signatory to Paris accords. The world of the future is solar, fusion, wind, and fission power, maybe Hydrogen. Maybe helium3 if the moon is mined.

Iran wants a MASSIVE nuclear program to feed that energy independent program. It’s population is incredibly energy intensive. It consumes most of the natural gas it produces decides being a top 4 power in natural gas production it isn’t even a top 10 in exporting.

That future nuclear program requires fuel. Fuel requires centrifuges. Iran needs something like 100,000 SWU+ for Busherer alone. By 2030 Iran wants to be at 120,000 and will likely need north of 500,000 by 2050.

1200 IR6 is not even 6,000 SWUs….a drop in the bucket.

That is why iran is trying to reach IR-10+ models which are close 70+ SWU/centrifuge and eventually laser enrichment which is 100 SWU/centrifuge (ie 1 centrifuge = 100 IR-1’s) There are only 3 nations in the world that have centrifuges that powerful….Russia, US, and EU. Most countries don’t need that level for nuclear weapons program it’s beyond overkill. AQ Khan’s old centrifuges designs is fine for such a weapons program.

But for example with laser enrichment based centrifuge: 60 centrifuges can do more work than 1200 IR-6’s. Think about that for a second.

So for Iran to have 500,000 SWU program to feed its nuclear energy cycle it will need to move 70-100 SWU/centrifuges like IR-10,11,12 models. IR-6 is merely a stop gap.

 

[Immortals]

Do we think Israel is bluffing?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Do we think Israel is bluffing?

Unfortunately not

I remember in the early weeks of the Gaza war a lot of respected analysts predicted Israel wouldn't even launch a ground invasion of Gaza because it was too risky, yet now they have been there for more than 7 months

so far we have seen that everything Netanyahu and the far right in Israel have said they will do (fight for months, enter Rafah, not care about diplomatic pressure) has come true

Iran cannot let Hezbollah fall and should enter the war directly. Israel will try to permanently disturb the equation with the Axis of Resistance by removing Hamas from Gaza and removing Hezbollah from south Lebanon. Even if Iran doesn't want to, Israel's attacks in Syria will likely lead to further Iranians killed and this will increase the pressure on the IRGC to respond. At the very least I hope we have stored hundreds of SRBMs across Syria ready to launch into Israel

 

[ThirdFaculty]

In an event of a war how does hezbollah receive supplies when Israel will control the skies over Lebanon and impose a naval blockade? In the initial few weeks Israel will sustain casualties but when there is No resupply how do you even sustain an armed conflict? Even if the IRGC send troops how can they get supplies in when the skies are controlled by the IOF.
Hezbollahs best bet is to hit Israel hard for the first 2-3 weeks until the international community step in. If they throw a few hard shots and the casualty levels become very high there’s a chance a ceasefire will take place

The idea that hamas is still fighting effectively is BS initially Israel took losses now a few soldiers are getting killed here and there.

 

[Persian Gulf]

In an event of a war how does hezbollah receive supplies when Israel will control the skies over Lebanon and impose a naval blockade? In the initial few weeks Israel will sustain casualties but when there is No resupply how do you even sustain an armed conflict? Even if the IRGC send troops how can they get supplies in when the skies are controlled by the IOF.
Hezbollahs best bet is to hit Israel hard for the first 2-3 weeks until the international community step in. If they throw a few hard shots and the casualty levels become very high there’s a chance a ceasefire will take place

The idea that hamas is still fighting effectively is BS initially Israel took losses now a few soldiers are getting killed here and there.

two main factors you are overlooking, besides Hezbollah's massive inventories that can sustain itself for a long time without resupplies

1) Hezbollah produces much of what it needs locally, so it doesn't need external resupplies
2) Lebanon has a large land border with Syria, so resupplies can come by sea, air or land

 

[lightning f57]

If Israel invades southern Lebanon, I dont see why Iran cant hit their troop positions in Lebanon with IRBMs given Israel does the same in Lebanon and Syria by using their warplanes.

It would be a good time for good old fashioned payback with all the IRGC personnel they have killed.

 

[tsunset]

If Israel invades southern Lebanon, I dont see why Iran cant hit their troop positions in Lebanon with IRBMs given Israel does the same in Lebanon and Syria by using their warplanes.

It would be a good time for good old fashioned payback with all the IRGC personnel they have killed.

srbm launch from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, not forcibly from Iran, the closer, the better accuracy (way better accuracy compared to MRMB from Iran or Yemen), and harder time to intercept

 

[Ali_Baba]

In an event of a war how does hezbollah receive supplies when Israel will control the skies over Lebanon and impose a naval blockade? In the initial few weeks Israel will sustain casualties but when there is No resupply how do you even sustain an armed conflict? Even if the IRGC send troops how can they get supplies in when the skies are controlled by the IOF.
Hezbollahs best bet is to hit Israel hard for the first 2-3 weeks until the international community step in. If they throw a few hard shots and the casualty levels become very high there’s a chance a ceasefire will take place

The idea that hamas is still fighting effectively is BS initially Israel took losses now a few soldiers are getting killed here and there.

That is the problem - what ever Hezbollah starts with - it will finish with for the most part. It does depend on how much Syria is prepared to allow to transit across its country aswell as Iraq for resupplies of course.

That is why I do think the Lebanese Goverment needs to officially and forceably resist - and ask for international help. Israel wont limit its destruction of Lebanon at all - it will flatten everything - so they are better off resisting - then letting them get away with anything.

Yes, Lebanon is in a bad way - but it wont get better until it raises it deterrence level against Israel and raises the cost for Israel. Lebanon should mobilise its whole country the same way Israel does. Look at how little Hamas has, and their level of resistance - do you think whatever Lebanon has, they cant do better ?

Israel is looking to permanently annex southern lebanon this time - they wont be going back.

 

[Nuffle]

Unfortunately not

I remember in the early weeks of the Gaza war a lot of respected analysts predicted Israel wouldn't even launch a ground invasion of Gaza because it was too risky, yet now they have been there for more than 7 months

so far we have seen that everything Netanyahu and the far right in Israel have said they will do (fight for months, enter Rafah, not care about diplomatic pressure) has come true

Iran cannot let Hezbollah fall and should enter the war directly. Israel will try to permanently disturb the equation with the Axis of Resistance by removing Hamas from Gaza and removing Hezbollah from south Lebanon. Even if Iran doesn't want to, Israel's attacks in Syria will likely lead to further Iranians killed and this will increase the pressure on the IRGC to respond. At the very least I hope we have stored hundreds of SRBMs across Syria ready to launch into Israel

The Iranian leadership and Hezbollah must be confident enough to predict a military defeat for Israel if it attacked southern Lebanon, considering the strong statements. But if this is all a bluff, with Hezbollah falling, Iran will suffer its biggest strategic defeat in two decades, which will directly impact the entire Axis of Resistance.

 

[Hack-Hook]

That is the problem - what ever Hezbollah starts with - it will finish with for the most part. It does depend on how much Syria is prepared to allow to transit across its country aswell as Iraq for resupplies of course.

That is why I do think the Lebanese Goverment needs to officially and forceably resist - and ask for international help. Israel wont limit its destruction of Lebanon at all - it will flatten everything - so they are better off resisting - then letting them get away with anything.

Yes, Lebanon is in a bad way - but it wont get better until it raises it deterrence level against Israel and raises the cost for Israel. Lebanon should mobilise its whole country the same way Israel does. Look at how little Hamas has, and their level of resistance - do you think whatever Lebanon has, they cant do better ?

Israel is looking to permanently annex southern lebanon this time - they wont be going back.

Don't you think Hamas weapon arsenal lasted far more than what anybody taught was possible

 

[Immortals]

Waiting for confirmation

 

[tsunset]

I'm asking myself why can't we mention war crimes when the vast majority of people here functions with "the more you kill, the more you win"

 

[Immortals]

I'm asking myself why can't we mention war crimes when the vast majority of people here functions with "the more you kill, the more you win"

Advocating war crimes makes you no different than Zionists or Nazis or Facists.

Considering how many of you are supposedly “religious”, it begs the question where you will end up after death when you get so excited over innocent human life being taken because they are on the “other side”. This isn’t Tractor Sazi vs Persepolis, it’s human lives.