I would guess it starts at 2am local time to mirror time of Haniyeh's assassination, Iran is symbolic like that
Reasonable conclusion
US would usually detect mass movement of hundreds of ballistic missiles. we haven't seen those indications yet, suggesting the response is not imminent. Which is a problem given Israel and the US are already working around the clock to prepare for the attacks.
They already said they have seen indications of unmistakable movement by HZ, Iran for attack preparations.
There is already a ton of US ships around Israel since July to protect against a HZ conflict.
Israel is signalling that if Iran attacks military targets it will assess the damage then decide how to respond (probably hit military facilities in Iran, scale and nature depends on damage suffered by Israel).
I think Iran will avoid energy and civilian infrastructure since it is much more vulnerable to counterattacks in that field. HZ and Houthi’s however may do such attacks. Israel might signal that is equivalent to Iran attacking their energy sector and attack Irans.
So very fluid situation. I expect Iran to stick to military targets in the opening waves.
If Iran hits civilians, Israel said it will strike back immediately. I don't think Khamenei will be the first target, unless Israel's ABMs have some random malfunction and Iran's attack causes huge damage that wasn't intended
There is very little PR value in hitting civilians especially for Iran.
The Khamenai comment is if the attack is another April 2024 or Al Assad 2020 like attack. Israel will feel emboldened and could strike at Khamenai to cause choas inside Iran and disorder and force the various factions to fight (infighting that is) each other for a new Supreme Leader.
Bibi is crazy like that. It’s like taking out Putin in Russia (even more so) the whole system goes into chaos while it seeks to stabilize itself.
If your Bibi you might make that (fatal judgment call). On 10/7 Bibi feared that HZ was preparing to also attack and considered a massive preemptive strike but backed down after realizing Axis isn’t getting directly involved.
So a lapse in judgment from Bibi thinking all your assassinations and sabotage haven’t gotten you hurt in return, may make him think Israel is invincible aka Icarus syndrome.
I am more disappointed in the lack of nuclear progress by Iran. We are under de facto economic blockade yet still limiting our nuclear program voluntarily. There is a good chance (50/50) Trump is next POTUS. This is the time (weak Biden, no appetite for war before election) for Iran to massively ramp up its nuclear program to build up additional leverage for the future. But outside of small numbers of IR-6s and very very slow accumulation of 60% HEU, it is not happening.
There is a long list of things to be disappointed by.
Iran sorely misses the leadership that Tehran Moghdam and Solemani (to name a couple) brought to the table.
Ghani is unremarkable.
The engineers at Shahrud don’t have the drive and passion that Tehrani’s team have had. One can see the leaps and bounds North Korea has made (albeit with Russian assistance and ToT) in last 10 years in BM space vs Iran that has largely focused on much more incremental improvements outside of accuracy.
