Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Navid09]

if Hezbollah's role is to act as a deterrent against Israeli bombing of Iran, did it succeed in that role? after decades of investment, it proved to be ineffective against Israel, and in fact required Iranian help to save it.

so, not a great investment. should we continue on this path again?

I do not suggest we abandon Hezbollah. they are our brothers. but we should be smarter about the costs we incur.


thankfully Israel's government is so retarded that the more they bomb Syria the more they make the 'rebels' realise Israel is their enemy and the more inclined they will be to work with iran.

we know back channel communications exist already.

Yes exactly what I was thinking about them in regards to bombing Syria. But maybe they want to provoke the rebels so they have the excuse to occupy more land?

In terms of Hezbollah, imagine iran never supported it from the start and if it was very weak like hamas, then all these years Israel/USA may have actually been even more aggressive towards Iran and bombed Iran's facilities in the earlier years (before Iran had better missiles) as they woudnt have feared a response from Hezbollah.

So Hezbollah may have saved Iran from strikes on its territory for the past few decades when Iran didn't have proper capability to strike Israel.

But now that Iran has better capabilities and other deterrences, the importance of Hezbollah somewhat drops.

So one could argue up until now they have been a good stop gap investment at roughly $700 million a year, around a few percent of the countries defence budget.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Why is Iran giving free oil to Iraq? That’s like giving free snow to Alaska or free weed to Jamaica wtf??

we give them electricity and gasoline on credit

if we are lucky the US lets them repay us several years later in a special restricted bank account from which we can only purchase food and medicine

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes exactly what I was thinking about them in regards to bombing Syria. But maybe they want to provoke the rebels so they have the excuse to occupy more land?

In terms of Hezbollah, imagine iran never supported it from the start and if it was very weak like hamas, then all these years Israel/USA may have actually been even more aggressive towards Iran and bombed Iran's facilities in the earlier years (before Iran had better missiles) as they woudnt have feared a response from Hezbollah.

So Hezbollah may have saved Iran from strikes on its territory for the past few decades when Iran didn't have proper capability to strike Israel.

But now that Iran has better capabilities and other deterrences, the importance of Hezbollah somewhat drops.

So one could argue up until now they have been a good stop gap investment at roughly $700 million a year, around a few percent of the countries defence budget.

that is plausible but we don't have the counterfactual so we can't say

but if they were an effective deterrent before, it's clear that is no longer the case and we need to find alternatives

our missiles did not work as we hoped. IRGC knows it. hence no response after 6 weeks and plan to create GNSS network to improve accuracy of missiles

 

[mangekyo]

better solution is to retain as much of existing program as possible and then make capitulation deal with the west and wait out decline of the West (can take centuries, not decades)

we have 5th most natural resources in the world, better to exploit it and invest it while we can and bide our time

You mean JCPOA 2.0? Its not going to work in the long run unless we abandon proxies completely and adopt a neutral foregin policy which IRI is not willing to do.

5th most natural resources in the world that gets wasted on aliexpress and wish items through barter deals with China. Or sent for free to Syria and Hezbollah.

I just can't comprehend how Iran which is not really affluent can afford to spend so many resources on other countries for seriously questionable ideological reasons. What good (to Iran) can ever come out of Syria or Iraq?

Nothing

so, not a great investment. should we continue on this path again?

I do not suggest we abandon Hezbollah. they are our brothers. but we should be smarter about the costs we incur.

We need to find a middle ground where israel doesnt commit genocide and our own people doesnt die from lack of medicine, flee the country because of poverty or run out of water

 

[mangekyo]

Yes exactly what I was thinking about them in regards to bombing Syria. But maybe they want to provoke the rebels so they have the excuse to occupy more land?

In terms of Hezbollah, imagine iran never supported it from the start and if it was very weak like hamas, then all these years Israel/USA may have actually been even more aggressive towards Iran and bombed Iran's facilities in the earlier years (before Iran had better missiles) as they woudnt have feared a response from Hezbollah.

So Hezbollah may have saved Iran from strikes on its territory for the past few decades when Iran didn't have proper capability to strike Israel.

But now that Iran has better capabilities and other deterrences, the importance of Hezbollah somewhat drops.

So one could argue up until now they have been a good stop gap investment at roughly $700 million a year, around a few percent of the countries defence budget.

Why would Israel or US have any beef with us if we didnt arm proxies?

 

[Garcia Sea]

Negotiating because you don't think you can win is the wrong approach.
No one wants to negotiate with a weak opponent, only to demand surrender.
Negotiations are only possible when your country has the power to bring the other side to the negotiating table.
It amazes me how many people do not understand this kind of realism.
What happened as a result of Iran signing the JCPOA when it had no power to make the US keep its promises?
If Iran dared to go nuclear, Trump would negotiate, just as he praised Kim Jong-un.
But Trump will never negotiate with Khamenei because he looks down on him for not having the courage.

 

[Shawnee]

Nobody has ever gone nuclear in public.
NK was also part of NPT but secretly built it.

If Iran builds nukes, it would be in secret facilities unrelated to what we know.

 

[StrategicBear]

that is plausible but we don't have the counterfactual so we can't say

but if they were an effective deterrent before, it's clear that is no longer the case and we need to find alternatives

our missiles did not work as we hoped. IRGC knows it. hence no response after 6 weeks and plan to create GNSS network to improve accuracy of missiles

But the Nevatim airbase was accurately hit?

Or maybe CEP between 50-100 meters is not enough for most objectives?

Need CEP between 10-30 meters for some targets in Israel that Iran wants to hit?

But Iran supposedly has "thousands of missiles", so can't the lack of accuracy be substituted by sheer numbers?

 

[Navid09]

Why would Israel or US have any beef with us if we didnt arm proxies?

Because of not having a control of Iran's resources.

Similar to Venezuela, Libya and other countries who were not really a threat to them but they still want a regime change

 

[Lulldapull]

Turkey/israel plan for syria
View attachment 87508

There should be a corridor also where poor people and afghani can walk to the coast and then continue their journey to Europe as migrants. Escaping poverty in all their failed states.

Straight corridor must be shown.

 

[Immortals]

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The incompetence by Iran to save any of this equipment in the months before collapse. The Syrian Air Force was the only man military branch that was fighting till the near end and Iran abandoned them too.

 

[Immortals]

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Sunnis gonna Sunni

 

[Immortals]

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Look at this clown.

 

[Tijani]

Millions of people in Iran are ready to sacrifice their lives for the Islamic Republic. They still don't understand this after 50 years. You will see waves of volunteers in Iran who wish to fight and become martyrs. Saddam experienced this 30 years ago.

Now Iran also owns military technology. No country, not even America, has the courage to attack Iran

Not only in Iran Millions more outside Iran are willing and able to fight to the death if called upon by the IRI. This is what has changed since the war of Sacred Defence.

 

[Tijani]

Its getting ridiculous.

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Most likely faked