Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[mangekyo]

That is incuestionable. But the correct question is, how many fighters are able Trump to loose because Netanyahu's plan?.

Why do you think US will lose fighters when Iran didn’t even come close to downing a single Israeli plane?

 

[Flotilla]

They will lose 0.

US Airforce has 600 F-35s and 180 F-22’s and 19 B-2 bombers. Without even using any 4++ gen, they can absolutely level Iran’s critical infrastructure.

Dont look at Yemen. U.S. simply doesn’t have as much intel assets on the ground or years of databanks and spies in Yemen like it does in Iran which it has actively been planning for over 40 years.

It’s wild some of you think there is still cards to play without Hz, Syria, Hamas, Iraqi PMU. Iran bet its entire deterrence on being able to start a regional war with its proxies by it side.

2000-7000 missiles ain’t gonna win a war. It’s over. Unless China backs Iran or U.S. magically economically collapses, Iran is toast until Trump leaves office.

Have you read about problems of F35 in Yemen because Houthies were able to lock some of them.

Also it is said during 12 day war some israelí F35 were at least detected. Of course all of them are just rumors.

But this week. Pentagon asked urgently some active ECCM deceivers for the F35. If Pentagon are asking same ECM system that israelí F35 are using that points unequivocally that at least F35 It is "detectable" (if not "lockable").

In a long serial campaign to destroy or minimize ballistic missile infraestructure Will be required weeks of Air operations.

Are you sure that Israel and US can afford just one F35 lost inside Iranian airspace?. What would say all Lockheed Martín and Pentagon related industry?.

Even if no one fighter is lost (I am telling you that even F35 will eventually be lost) how much damage can afford US Pentagon?. How many bases hit?. How many casualties?. Will IRGC call before an attack if a large Air campaign It is started?.

Trump has NO money and has NO support from his people.

A hypothetical US victory would be phyrric.

 

[Flotilla]

Why do you think US will lose fighters when Iran didn’t even come close to downing a single Israeli plane?

How many fighters crossed Iranian airspace?.
How much drones were shoot down. Maybe first days IADS failed miserably (all evidences point so), but let's be honest. Air Defense after that first week started to kill painstically every drone inside Iranian Air Space.
To the point that even israelí media said that Irán got millions of invaluable technology for reverse-ingeenering

 

[Immortals]

I agree it has no value for Iran. But there is no clean exit. IRI crossed a threshold by building proxies and directly challenging the US and Israel. Things do not reset just because the Axis is dead. Challenging the US and Israel has consequences. Once that threshold is crossed, simply backing off is no longer possible. This kind of conflict does not reverse. Even if a president distances himself from AIPAC, IRI cannot rebuild its proxies fast enough before US policy swings back. Without Syria, that door is closed.

What we are seeing now is a real war of attrition. And even China cannot outlast the US in a war of attrition. In practice, pressure continues until one side is eliminated. There is absolutely no way US backs down until either Iran or Israel is eliminated.

It might sound too extreme. But Iran is a big country with oil, gas, people, and pride. Capability itself is the problem. I just don’t see a future where the Israelis shake hands with any Iranian government. The genie is out of the bottle. IRIs only bet is to eliminate Israel or get eliminated. But it’s a bit too late to build the bomb now.

The problem is when IRI revolution happened they were basically taken over by religious fanatics who had little state building and geopolitical experience. Not much different than the Taliban in some aspects, just somewhat less propensity to resort to violence to suppress dissent.

Then over time, the government of iran they moderated and became more pragmatic to realities on the ground. Slowly becoming more and more liberal.

However, at the start of IRI Revolution they built their entire foundation and identity on fighting America and Israel, which was very short sighted. They denounced the Europeans. This naturally made it hard to decouple from this reality without going against the fundamentals of your own revolution. As you said, you don’t get too “back out” after you pick a fight with these two powers (America/Us).

Now Iran is facing an identity crisis, if it caves to Western demands it risks the entire system collapsing on itself. If it doesn’t cave to western demands the system may still collapse within itself either

1) Economically

2) Socially

3) Militarily

The problem in the end is Iran built up tremendous power only to never use it to break free of the status quo.

No negotiations
No nukes
No war

It was the most foolish military build up and unraveling in the 21st century. History books will remember Khamenai and the leadership as ones too afraid of going to war to achieve long lasting peace. They thought they could expand across the Middle East, intefere in Arab countries affairs, conduct attacks on Israel, and just get away with it for decades until one day Israel or America simply decayed away as empires do.

Dumb strategy with no endgame.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

The problem is when IRI revolution happened they were basically taken over by religious fanatics who had little state building and geopolitical experience. Not much different than the Taliban in some aspects, just somewhat less propensity to resort to violence to suppress dissent.

Then over time, the government of iran they moderated and became more pragmatic to realities on the ground. Slowly becoming more and more liberal.

However, at the start of IRI Revolution they built their entire foundation and identity on fighting America and Israel, which was very short sighted. They denounced the Europeans. This naturally made it hard to decouple from this reality without going against the fundamentals of your own revolution. As you said, you don’t get too “back out” after you pick a fight with these two powers (America/Us).

Now Iran is facing an identity crisis, if it caves to Western demands it risks the entire system collapsing on itself. If it doesn’t cave to western demands the system may still collapse within itself either

1) Economically

2) Socially

3) Militarily

The problem in the end is Iran built up tremendous power only to never use it to break free of the status quo.

No negotiations
No nukes
No war

It was the most foolish military build up and unraveling in the 21st century. History books will remember Khamenai and the leadership as ones too afraid of going to war to achieve long lasting peace. They thought they could expand across the Middle East, intefere in Arab countries affairs, conduct attacks on Israel, and just get away with it for decades until one day Israel or America simply decayed away as empires do.

Dumb strategy with no endgame.

West is decaying as an empire, that's why it's using violence to keep its power. Population is old, no birthrate, economy and technology is no more innovative. China already passed them on all levels and rest of Asia is rising.
For west, it's use it or lose it situation, zero sum game and gambling. In Russia they lost this gambling and lost a lot of money with it. Now they try to win in Iran.

 

[Bharatah]

Things are not as simple as Zionist propaganda wants to portray them. In the 1970s, there was no Ayatollah revolution in Iran, no Hezbollah, nor anyone who hit "Israel" with missiles; today there is. And this happened as a reaction to what they did in the past.

What they are doing now will have repercussions for decades and even centuries. The Palestinian Holocaust will be denounced eternally, and a moment will come when someone will reach the following conclusion: to defeat "Israel," it is not enough to defeat the country called "Israel," but to defeat an entire world order controlled by Zionist Jews. That is when these resistant people will work to create a rival order to theirs, and technological advancements with powerful weapons of the future will facilitate the creation of local resistance (in each nation) to confront the Zionist elite.

Ayatollahs, mullahs and sheikhs will never accept the defeat and destruction of Islam. Anyone who is in Muslim-majority countries and works for Zionism is either a spy, a Zionist crypto-Jew, or a secular puppet politician. Muslims will never accept it.

Forget the concept of "country," the war here is to destroy Islam and allow the Zionist Jewish elite to dominate everything. They are the ones who created communism, Hollywood, globalism, and control media and social networks, etc.

We are talking about wars for the next millennia

 

[StrategicBear]

I think the USA will collapse waaaaay before Iran collapses. This may be a race against time, but I'm willing to bet the US will collapse first before Iran... If not by economy, then by some sort of Natural Disaster of epic Yellowstone Proportions... Or even a catastrophic war with China that causes them to lose minimum 3 aircraft carriers. What do you guys think?

 

[PakAl]

Currently Iran has 2000 medium-range ballistic missiles and 2000 shorter range missiles - 4000 missiles in total.

Recent reports say that Iran currently produces 200 missiles per month or 2400 missiles per year.

Iran should increase its missile arsenal to 14.000 missiles by 2030 and 20.000 missiles by 2035 and accelerate its nuclear program.

If US starts intercepting ammonium perchlorate shipments from China, Iran should intercept Western oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

I didnt want to post on Iranian section since some Iranian members get irritated but I remember we talked a few years ago and we had a good chat, I wanted to ask you regarding the missiles, as you mentioned reports are saying Iran has 2000 medium range missiles, and 2000 short range, enough to strike Israel or closer to border targets, and now Iran is building 2400 missiles a year. Is this accurate, it seems like its western propaganda, to create some kind of Iranian emerging threat type of propaganda.

What i mean is Iran has been facing threats of Usa Israeli attack since the 1980s, and after Iraqi war we all knew it is expected anytime soon, they made open threats, called it axis of evil etc. Iran had secret missile program in the 1980s and 1990s but let's say Iran started full mass production of short and medium range missiles in 2002, today after 24 years, they should have minimum 30,000 ballistic missile inventory, at a approx rate of 100 missiles per month , and maximum 60,000 missiles at approx 200 missiles a month. Keep in mind this was Iran main defence plan and they spent billions upon billions on missiles technologies and production, so how is it possible after all this Iran has only total 4000 missiles in stock. Today the propaganda is Iran will have 30,000 in 2035 etc, but Iran should already be at this level right now.

 

[Immortals]

Have you read about problems of F35 in Yemen because Houthies were able to lock some of them.

Also it is said during 12 day war some israelí F35 were at least detected. Of course all of them are just rumors.

No because it didn’t happen, just rumors and possible psych ops.

The F-35 isn’t invisible, it can be picked up by certain wavelength high powered radars but the probability you detect it (based on its frontal RCS) is somewhere around 35KM from the radar, which from a battlefield sense is kind of useless since it would drop its payloads well before you can get a lock. So what makes detecting the F-35 challenging is not detecting it, but detecting it at far enough range to actually prevent it from attacking your radars/defenses/completing its mission.

So hypothetically if Houthi’s detected it 10km from the radar installation, it’s not impressive. Its physics.

This is without F/35 engaging in avoiding radar envelopes or jamming or ECW from AWAC planes.

But this week. Pentagon asked urgently some active ECCM deceivers for the F35. If Pentagon are asking same ECM system that israelí F35 are using that points unequivocally that at least F35 It is "detectable" (if not "lockable").

Again it’s physics.

Radar wavelength vs object meant to absorb or distort as much of the wavelength as possible to avoid flowing back to the radar. None of this means anything we don’t already know.

Iran struggled shooting down Heron drones with RCS well north of 2.0 m^2 that Hezbollah was shooting down with large success in South Lebanon. But now you think it can go up against even 100 F-35’s?

In a long serial campaign to destroy or minimize ballistic missile infraestructure Will be required weeks of Air operations.

Are you sure that Israel and US can afford just one F35 lost inside Iranian airspace?. What would say all Lockheed Martín and Pentagon related industry?.

You are making the F-35 some secret weapon. As if one F-35 is lost it ends American air dominance. It is getting replaced in 5-10 years as the next gen 6th gen fighters roll out.

F-22 and B-2’s would be used on high risky targets and F-35’s would be used on softer targets or once air dominance has been established.

You are doing mental gymnastics to justify why U.S. won’t strike Iran.

Even if no one fighter is lost (I am telling you that even F35 will eventually be lost) how much damage can afford US Pentagon?. How many bases hit?. How many casualties?. Will IRGC call before an attack if a large Air campaign It is started?.

So far US bombed Iran’s entire nuclear program and Iran fired some missiles at one base doing small damage.

You seriously think IRGC is going to go sink an aircraft carrier or level military command in Bahrain/Qatar? When they didn’t even do that to Israel? When they didn’t do that when their entire nuclear program went up in flames?

Trump has NO money and has NO support from his people.

The US is building F-15’s package for Israel at the cost of $8B dollars. It has plenty of money to throw at war. Just look at Ukraine.

The amount of money they will make from controlling Iranian oil, gas, and natural resources once a puppet government is installed will be well worth it.

 

[OldTwilight]

We should have nukes ...

even from economic stand point, building nukes are far cheaper and more effective than trying to compete with USA in convectional warfare (which we can't )

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

Why do you think US will lose fighters when Iran didn’t even come close to downing a single Israeli plane?

Don't get hung on playing defense! It will be decided on what you can reciprocate in zion peoper. They'll only let you survive if they can make sure that it doesn't become an unviable for them...
Mounting costs will ensure ones with prospects to ditch the sinking project and let the people in Mideast be!

 

[PakistanLVR]

You must be joking if you think that Turkey will ever lay a finger on their Zionist masters.

Yes I think they will. Modern warfare isn't all rhetoric and emotions. The Turks are building a world class military - something that Iran should have done instead of antagonizing vastly superior economic and military powers in its region.
The Turks unlike the Persians do not issue poetic words of retribution while neglecting preparation and strategy. They are quietly building up their military and it will come to head in the future over Syria. You can mark my words here. You guys are so busy waging some notional holy war against the Israelis and can't see the trees from the forest.
I used to think just like you, but countries act in their strategic calculus even against so called "allies." This has been one constant thing of our world. The Soviets and Nazis were allies to get rid of a common threat. The Turks gave you an out to come to terms with the Syrian issue but you chose to ignore them, when the smart money would have been to patch things up with the Sunnis while tackling the Israelis - but you rather befriend the Hindus and the Orthodox scums to fight against your own co-coreligionists, and look where it got you. You were beaten like a dead horse across the region, your allies depleted and defeated, and your influence no longer there. Even so that it seems the Israelis are regretting beating you because now they have to deal with a much more powerful and clever enemy backed by real military power [Pakistan], with access to modern weapons and tactics. The Israelis will come to peace with the AoR in order to have them be the counter-balance against the ascending Sunni powers of the region ie Saudi-Turkey. Was it worth it? You couldn't even deal with counter-intel at home letting the enemy set up shop right under your noses. Best to take a knee now and get rid of the idiotic system that's basically Shah in Islamic garb. This is me - A Shia saying it.
You could have just concentrated on being a Middle Eastern Germany, but had to start beef with everyone, thereby allowing outsiders to enter the region and divide it up.
@Persian Gulf - don't ban me for saying the above - it seems like some of your countrymen haven't learned a damn thing over the past two years. Iran is light years behind Israel and America. All that rhetoric of confronting them, and couldn't even set up effective strategy.

 

[PakistanLVR]

well Hamas and PIJ are Sunni are they not ? and most of the Sunni Arabs went to full scale war with Israel repeatedly from 1948-1973. they just lost the wars very badly and basically conceded defeat and decided 'if you can't beat them, join them'.

These guys need to learn the lessons of Carthage and Rome.

 

[PakAl]

well Hamas and PIJ are Sunni are they not ? and most of the Sunni Arabs went to full scale war with Israel repeatedly from 1948-1973. they just lost the wars very badly and basically conceded defeat and decided 'if you can't beat them, join them'.

The real Sunnis were the Ottomans, who replied to the Zionist world with this message but Palestine was taken, over their dead bodies. The Mughals were also destroyed, so we lost all power in the world and ended up with puppet states. Those who came after the Ottomans sold Palestine. Today we are rock bottom but so are all the Muslims.

 

[Kyussis]

Yes I think they will. Modern warfare isn't all rhetoric and emotions. The Turks are building a world class military - something that Iran should have done instead of antagonizing vastly superior economic and military powers in its region.
The Turks unlike the Persians do not issue poetic words of retribution while neglecting preparation and strategy. They are quietly building up their military and it will come to head in the future over Syria. You can mark my words here. You guys are so busy waging some notional holy war against the Israelis and can't see the trees from the forest.
I used to think just like you, but countries act in their strategic calculus even against so called "allies." This has been one constant thing of our world. The Soviets and Nazis were allies to get rid of a common threat. The Turks gave you an out to come to terms with the Syrian issue but you chose to ignore them, when the smart money would have been to patch things up with the Sunnis while tackling the Israelis - but you rather befriend the Hindus and the Orthodox scums to fight against your own co-coreligionists, and look where it got you. You were beaten like a dead horse across the region, your allies depleted and defeated, and your influence no longer there. Even so that it seems the Israelis are regretting beating you because now they have to deal with a much more powerful and clever enemy backed by real military power [Pakistan], with access to modern weapons and tactics. The Israelis will come to peace with the AoR in order to have them be the counter-balance against the ascending Sunni powers of the region ie Saudi-Turkey. Was it worth it? You couldn't even deal with counter-intel at home letting the enemy set up shop right under your noses. Best to take a knee now and get rid of the idiotic system that's basically Shah in Islamic garb. This is me - A Shia saying it.
You could have just concentrated on being a Middle Eastern Germany, but had to start beef with everyone, thereby allowing outsiders to enter the region and divide it up.
@Persian Gulf - don't ban me for saying the above - it seems like some of your countrymen haven't learned a damn thing over the past two years. Iran is light years behind Israel and America. All that rhetoric of confronting them, and couldn't even set up effective strategy.

You can think what ever you want. Turkey will never fire a single bullet towards at Israel. Never have. Never will.