Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Immortals]

at this rate IRI will lose Iran by increasing the price of everything and not increasing the salary , with the questionable law like " Hejab law " and wide spread curroption and incompetency...

If you increase salaries you increase inflation which leads to increases price of goods. Which leads to a negative feedback loop that never ends and you get runaway inflation.

Iran’s failure in building its economy is rooted in Neither East nor West failed political philosophy and over reliance on stability of oil income. Coupled with significant corruption and lack of economic reform and your left few good options to fix this. The “resistance economy” is largely a failure. The global inflation wave of 2022 only further hurt Iran.

The “China strategic deal” was a flop. Propaganda. Chinese think tanks rightfully criticized Iran when China came back with an offer for strategic cooperation in 2015-2019 for its Great Silk Road project with Iran at the center they didn’t get a strong response. Iranian policy makers lead by liberal Rouhani and Co. banked on Europeans rescuing Iranian economy and trade with West.

Well China then began working with Arabs and regional countries instead and so by the time Iran came crawling back for a economic deal, China had made a lot of investments and Iran was simply not that critical anymore. So it was a Chinese deal on Chinese terms and it became a water downed piece of non committal guarantees outside of its routine oil purchases.

This is why Russia and China don’t trust Iran. Because Iran has historically also used them to get better deals from the West. So they always worry Iran is one liberal uprising away from swinging back to Western orbit. Thus they will likely never going to commit strategic capital to Iran. Even Russia chose North Korea over Iran and China chose deeper ties with Africa, Pakistan, and PGCC over iran.

Now Iran hopes MBS (Saudi Arabia) and Qatar investment dollars can help build up the Iranian economy.

It’s quite simple, Iran needs massive capital investment ($250B+ dollars over next decade for energy sector alone) to be competitive on world stage. Iranian capital markets simply cannot supply that level of need even if all corruption was magically eliminated overnight. Only international markets can.

It’s either nukes Or capitulation (a deal). Status quo of sitting in no man’s land for America or Europeans to come begging for a deal is not a strategy.

 

[Immortals]

I was against this so called " Strategic patient" , I raised my words against it , but even in a forum like military.ir that I was one of the oldest member, the pro IR did unofficially ban me ...

It was " Strategic cowardice" ....

I agree.

“Strategic patience” was code for “Happy with status quo”.

Because if you are Iran in 2020, you look back and you see the following:

HZ at all time strength with capture of seats in parliament.

Hamas at all time strength with its military domestic rocket and ATGM capability.

You saved Assad from Arab Spring and the Western regime change war machine. Never done before in the history of the Middle East I might add. And now have extensive military influence throughout the country and in Assad’s security structure and when historically it was much balanced relationship.

So you are CONTENT at your gains because compared to a decade earlier (2020 -> 2010) you are largely AHEAD in many areas. So what’s a few airstrikes here or there in Syria? Water under the bridge IRGC thought, or the equivalent of an hyena trying to annoy a Lion.

Attacking back could have met upsetting the Apple cart of gains Iran had made.

However, those gains as quickly as they come can be taken away. We have seen (2020 -> 2025) HZ at its weakest, Hamas obliterated, and Assad back in trouble with an hegemonic Turkey stretching the Turkic Crescent from Syria thru Azerbaijan to Tajikistan. Iran lost Raisi and tens of commanders including Solemani, it is back under social discontent and China and Russia have their own problems.

I think Sinwar and Deif caught on to Arabs normalizing relations with Israel and Iran potentially normalizing relations with US under a new agreement and Palestine being forgotten. So they did 10/7 to throw a hammer into everyone’s plans, but it ended up a back firing on all parties (Arabs, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Palestinian resistance all came out weaker). The only way iran could protect Palestine cause was by being stronger itself and that meant solving the nuclear issue once and for all.

Now we are at impasse once again nukes or deal. EU is going to recommend Iran back to UN Security council for snap back sanctions in 2025. While Iran has much more nuclear leverage in 2025 vs 2020 by expanding its nuclear enrichment, it also has noticeably less geopolitical leverage (Hamas, Syria, HZ) than 2020.

It’s certainly going to be an interesting 2025.

 

[mulj]

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Find this hard to believe, but let’s see

Nice fairy tails, no russian airstrikes and scorched earth no military gains. Infantry wise assad troops and any of their allies are inferior to rebels.
What we witnessed in past 10 days is great manifestation of how quickly rebels adapted and rectified all military mistakes from past and implemented modern technological assets on tactical level which went trough assad forces like they are sitting ducks.
Iran itself could learn thing of two from it.

 

[vmro]

Nice fairy tails, no russian airstrikes and scorched earth no military gains. Infantry wise assad troops and any of their allies are inferior to rebels.
What we witnessed in past 10 days is great manifestation of how quickly rebels adapted and rectified all military mistakes from past and implemented modern technological assets on tactical level which went trough assad forces like they are sitting ducks.
Iran itself could learn thing of two from it.

They have nato instructors and logistics support...and many allies of Iran were ready to change sides, depending on what they think is more useful in that moment...

We can start with some random country, like Bosna, Alija went to Tehran for gaining support, Iranians were only willing...and few years later, Bosna changed sides, using first chance...but you know that better than me...

 

[mulj]

They have nato instructors and logistics support...and many allies of Iran were ready to change sides, depending on what they think is more useful in that moment...

We can start with some random country, like Bosna, Alija went to Tehran for gaining support, Iranians were only willing...and few years later, Bosna changed sides, using first chance...but you know that better than me...

i think they have in abundant instructors among their own forces but probably some technical support from external factors were necessary, nevertheless impressive outcome of their efforts against on paper superior adversary.

yep, something like that, strange moment in history where iran had free hand and being undisrupted by west to help oppressed people.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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@Immortals

some pro-HTS accounts talk about mass withdrawal of SAA forces to Damascus

 

[OldTwilight]

If you increase salaries you increase inflation which leads to increases price of goods. Which leads to a negative feedback loop that never ends and you get runaway inflation.

Iran’s failure in building its economy is rooted in Neither East nor West failed political philosophy and over reliance on stability of oil income. Coupled with significant corruption and lack of economic reform and your left few good options to fix this. The “resistance economy” is largely a failure. The global inflation wave of 2022 only further hurt Iran.

The “China strategic deal” was a flop. Propaganda. Chinese think tanks rightfully criticized Iran when China came back with an offer for strategic cooperation in 2015-2019 for its Great Silk Road project with Iran at the center they didn’t get a strong response. Iranian policy makers lead by liberal Rouhani and Co. banked on Europeans rescuing Iranian economy and trade with West.

Well China then began working with Arabs and regional countries instead and so by the time Iran came crawling back for a economic deal, China had made a lot of investments and Iran was simply not that critical anymore. So it was a Chinese deal on Chinese terms and it became a water downed piece of non committal guarantees outside of its routine oil purchases.

This is why Russia and China don’t trust Iran. Because Iran has historically also used them to get better deals from the West. So they always worry Iran is one liberal uprising away from swinging back to Western orbit. Thus they will likely never going to commit strategic capital to Iran. Even Russia chose North Korea over Iran and China chose deeper ties with Africa, Pakistan, and PGCC over iran.

Now Iran hopes MBS (Saudi Arabia) and Qatar investment dollars can help build up the Iranian economy.

It’s quite simple, Iran needs massive capital investment ($250B+ dollars over next decade for energy sector alone) to be competitive on world stage. Iranian capital markets simply cannot supply that level of need even if all corruption was magically eliminated overnight. Only international markets can.

It’s either nukes Or capitulation (a deal). Status quo of sitting in no man’s land for America or Europeans to come begging for a deal is not a strategy.

not when the average salary is 100$ per month ....
You are just repeating what pro capitalist and pro government economists are selling to people in past 10 years while every passing year , more Iranians are falling to poverty ... now almost 70% iranians are living under poverty by fair accounts.

 

[OldTwilight]

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@Immortals

some pro-HTS accounts talk about mass withdrawal of SAA forces to Damascus

Well, IRI is losing in every corner , this happen when a governments prioritize the proxy over its own army and people ....

Now, they don't know who is the new commanders f Hezbollah , The Iraqi militias are not reliable and our army is weak due years of spending on proxy and not modernizing it ...

 

[Immortals]

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@Immortals

some pro-HTS accounts talk about mass withdrawal of SAA forces to Damascus

They reached even further than Rastan

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I’m still not seeing confirmation on Hama from either side. Do you have any videos?

 

[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

Israel attacked a border crossing Lebanon/Syria allegedly targeting HZ forces

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[jauk]

SAA failed counteroffensive:

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[BigMela2onin]

not when the average salary is 100$ per month ....
You are just repeating what pro capitalist and pro government economists are selling to people in past 10 years while every passing year , more Iranians are falling to poverty ... now almost 70% iranians are living under poverty by fair accounts.

You can institute price controls on domestic products like the Nixon shock. But this would have to be followed by measures to prevent capital flight and in the long run transition to state run command economy which the government is too incompetent for. And you can't price control any imports.

 

[OldTwilight]

well, this happening when IRI was losing high ranking commanders left and right and did nothing to protect them ...

Without capable commanders and generals , nothing is going to change.

 

[Garcia Sea]

One thing is for sure: do not negotiate with Israel, terrorists, or the United States in any way.
How many times have we seen surprise attacks from false ceasefires repeated?
The peace agreement in Syria was also a clear mistake, and the country is now on the verge of destruction because of that blunder.
If the reformist regime tries to negotiate peace at this late stage, it will mean not only the destruction of Syria, but also the next battlefield will be the Iranian mainland.
The only way to protect the country, the only way to protect the lives of the people, is to fight.
In just one month, Trump will be in office, our enemies will have full support, and Iran will be in its greatest predicament.
So far, only North Korea has survived unscathed after being targeted by the US.
Only their never giving in attitude has been right.