Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

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30% increase in number of advanced centrifuges over last 6 months



Highlights from the IAEA's latest quarterly report from August 2024:

• Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU per weapon, for nine nuclear weapons in one month, 12 in two months, 13 in three months, 14 in four months, and 15 in five months.
• The installation of eight more IR-6 cascades at the deeply buried Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) since the last report means that Fordow alone could allow Iran to break out within days. With careful planning in advance and placement of all the stocks of 20 and 60 percent enriched uranium at the FFEP, it could produce enough WGU for four nuclear weapons in about two weeks and enough for almost six in a month.
• As of August 17, Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent HEU in the form of uranium hexafluoride was 164.7 kg (as measured in U mass) or 243.6 kg (hex mass). This represented a net increase in the stock in the form of uranium hexafluoride of 22.6 kg (U mass) since the previous reporting period. This form of enriched uranium allows for a more rapid breakout.
• With total production of 60 percent enriched uranium at 28.6 (U mass) during this reporting period, the average production rate of 60 percent HEU was about 8.85 kg (U mass) per month, or 0.295 kg (U mass) per day, higher than the average rate of 6.4 kg (U mass) during the previous reporting period. At this rate, Iran can produce about 108 kg of 60 percent HEU (U mass) annually.
• Iran now has nearly 10,600 advanced centrifuges installed at Natanz and Fordow, where most are deployed at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) (see Figure 1). The FEP now has all near-term planned centrifuge cascades installed, pending less firm Iranian plans.
• Including the installed IR-1 centrifuges at the FEP and FFEP brings the total number of installed centrifuges to about 16,900. It should be noted that many advanced centrifuges are deployed but not enriching uranium, and the IR-1 centrifuges have a reduced ability to enrich uranium.
• During the reporting period, Iran installed eight new IR-6 cascades at Fordow, for a total of 10 IR-6 cascades, two of which are currently operating. Iran plans to install a total of 16 IR-6 cascades at Fordow. Iran installed ten new IR-2m cascades at the Natanz FEP, for a total of 31 IR-2m cascades. Fifteen of those are now enriching. Iran also started enriching in nine of 12 previously installed IR-4 cascades at the FEP.
• Iran has a total installed enrichment capacity of roughly 48,800 SWU/year.
• The IAEA again reports that Iran has not started commissioning the Arak reactor, now called the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor (KHRR), or IR-20. Iran previously informed the IAEA that it expected to commission the reactor in 2023 and start operations in 2024. The IAEA reports that minor civil construction work was ongoing on the reactor. During design information verification (DIV) activities on August 10, Iran informed the IAEA “that commissioning was now expected to take place in 2026,” and Iran would provide an updated design information questionnaire (DIQ).