Iranian UAVs | News and Discussions

[Mehdipersian]

Yes, you know what else is cheap to build? Arrows and cannon balls. Last I checked those aren’t used in warfare anymore.

You will [eventually] be wasting resources and wasting money as newer [defensive] technologies come online to combat older tech. This is natural evolution of warfare.

$20K-75K/drone for America is not a lot when it’s budget is 900B or China whose military budget is 300B or even Russia who is at 100B. For a sanctioned Iran that is still substantial at 15-20B.

15,000 drones costing average price of let’s say $50,000 is $750M USD. To put it in perspective, Iran’s S-300 deal with Russia was $800M

There is nothing wrong with swarm warfare especially if Iran is fighting Azeribajian or Saudi Arabia. But against a higher peer opponent (Israel or US), it becomes a lot less sustainable. If you cannot quickly and sufficiently degrade your opponents defenses then it becomes a war of attrition.

Look at Ukraine, look at the amount of ordnances that Russia has dropped on Ukraine it exceeds the amount of missiles Iran likely has in its inventory. Russia is firing over 10,000 artillery shells a day. That’s not even taking into the hundreds of thousands of KGs in FAB bombs it’s dropping.

Yet it has failed to gain air superiority due to NATO replenishment. So even a sub-tier military power can stand up to a mighty war machine if it has enough funding and replenishment despite getting pulverized by the air constantly.

And here is another problem. You fire 10,000 drones let’s say 25% get thru 2,500 drones with 20kg warheads aren’t going substantially degrade your opponent.

It’s going to take you months to rebuild that inventory. But unlike Russia where you can safely build a Shahed mega factory without worry about it being bombed, all of Iran’s drone manufacturing will be under constant attack meaning that replenishing supply of suicide drones will be hard against a peer to peer opponent.


My point: It’s important to begin investing in higher tier threat multiplier platforms. That includes high altitude supersonic VLO bomber drones, that includes stealth cruise missiles, that includes SuperSonics and eventually Hypersonics.

You don’t have to completely abandon the low cost swarm approach, but you shouldn’t be putting all your eggs in a basket thinking firing a volley after volley of arrows will eventually break thru a shield. You might run out of arrows by the time it does.

Even if the westerners can shoot down these drones at a reasonable cost, it is very important to reproduce cheap drones.

All of Iran's enemies do not have a strong defense like Israel. Even all US bases in the region do not have adequate defenses.

For example, expensive missiles should not be used to hit the base of a terrorist group. Cheap drones are the best option.

But I also agree that the supersonic cruise missile should be built. Both anti-ship and ground to ground.

 

[Immortals]

Even if the westerners can shoot down these drones at a reasonable cost, it is very important to reproduce cheap drones.

That is where laser comes in. Laser operates on power and not missiles. So western militaries will finally start to get cost parity with Iran.

Even Chinese researchers are building lasers to intercept future hypersonics by removing the thermal protection layer of the missile causing it to have runaway heat combustion.

All of Iran's enemies do not have a strong defense like Israel. Even all US bases in the region do not have adequate defenses.

Realistically Iran isn’t going to war with Pakistan or Azeribajian so it’s enemies are pretty non existent outside of Israel/US. Saudi Arabia is a minor problem but they are focused on growth and modernization not trying to enter a major war.

For example, expensive missiles should not be used to hit the base of a terrorist group. Cheap drones are the best option.

Iran’s missiles like Fath, Qiam, F-110 are likely pretty cheap to build. Drones simply cannot match the payload of these missiles. Unless you are talking a fully loaded Gaza drone or a swarm of Mohajer-6 with 6 PGMs. Then the cost actually probably becomes more than a f-110 older generation.

But I also agree that the supersonic cruise missile should be built. Both anti-ship and ground to ground.

Supersonic is the bare minimum moving forward. And hypersonic is the game changer. The goal is to hit your enemies most high valued assets (radars, critical nodes, air field hangers, and infrastructure) before they can prepare.

Right now Iran’s intial strike packages are easily detectable, where as Hypersonics (CMs and BMs) would give the enemy less than 5 mins reaction time.

The low cost approach should be a complement to a higher tier weapons strike package not the central core strategy

If it was 1990-2010 a entire low cost strategy would be very harmful to Iran’s enemies. But everyone is adapting and evolving. You can’t expect your enemy to leave its soft underbelly exposed forever. People here cite the infamous U.S. Millenium Challenge wargame of 2001 as evidence that their strategy works. That was 23 years ago. Come on now.

 

[jauk]

Seems like a waste.

All that money spent building non Radar evasion drone designs and using loud radiation prop powered drones could go towards building LO and VLO cruise missiles with supersonic microjet engines.

Then you don’t need to fire 500 drones so that 10-20% make it thru and can fire 50 high tier weapons and have 75-80% make it thru.

Especially once laser air defense systems start becoming more and more common, swarms of slow moving and detectable objects will be easily disposed of by a cost efficiency laser jet beam that cost Pennies on the dollar vs today’s $100K-$3M interceptors. It will be the “AA” gun of the 22nd century.

View attachment 37746

As for today, the cost effectiveness is undeniable. As for tomorrow, I'm sure solutions are being considered if not in place already.

 

[Flames In The Desert]

Here we see the drones supplied to hezbollah at its museum
Whats interesting is that one of the ababil 2 drones is jet powered.We`d seen pics of this before being tested in iran but it didnt appear to be used by the iranians and did seem to be an odd choice as the range with this sort of engine would be far more limited.
It now seems probable that it was intended for hezbollah to attack israeli targets at short range.

 

[Immortals]

As for today, the cost effectiveness is undeniable. As for tomorrow, I'm sure solutions are being considered if not in place already.

If tommorrow is anything like the space program, we will be waiting for some time.

 

[jauk]

If tommorrow is anything like the space program, we will be waiting for some time.

In college there was a popular and frequented sandwich shop. A favorite of mine too. There was an ever present big sign above the payment counter :

“Free Sandwiches Tomorrow” .

The humor was endless. Hopefully, the humor will end in this case.

 

[jauk]

 

[jauk]

Behold these weapons of war:

 

[jauk]

 

[Flames In The Desert]

 

[That_Guy]

Seems like a waste.

All that money spent building non Radar evasion drone designs and using loud radiation prop powered drones could go towards building LO and VLO cruise missiles with supersonic microjet engines.

Then you don’t need to fire 500 drones so that 10-20% make it thru and can fire 50 high tier weapons and have 75-80% make it thru.

Especially once laser air defense systems start becoming more and more common, swarms of slow moving and detectable objects will be easily disposed of by a cost efficiency laser jet beam that cost Pennies on the dollar vs today’s $100K-$3M interceptors. It will be the “AA” gun of the 22nd century.

View attachment 37746

Laser air defense is still in its early development phase, aka experimental phase, and not in wide spread use by any military.

It has shown promise, but we're still a good decade or two away from viable directed energy weapons, and directed energy air defense platforms.

 

[Immortals]

It has shown promise, but we're still a good decade or two away from viable directed energy weapons, and directed energy air defense platforms.

This is false. Iron Beam has already been deployed in small numbers and will be deployed in larger numbers in 2025. US has also begun installing anti drone laser systems.

Will certarinrky not take 10-20 years for laser air defense weapons to become more common. More like 5-7. Even Iran has a viable prototype.

As for the cost savings:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-laser-missile-shield-cost-just-2-per-interception-2022-06-01/

 

[That_Guy]

This is false. Iron Beam has already been deployed in small numbers and will be deployed in larger numbers in 2025. US has also begun installing anti drone laser systems.

Will certarinrky not take 10-20 years for laser air defense weapons to become more common. More like 5-7. Even Iran has a viable prototype.

As for the cost savings:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-laser-missile-shield-cost-just-2-per-interception-2022-06-01/

"In small numbers"

"Has also begun"

You are literally proving my point.

 

[Immortals]

"In small numbers"

"Has also begun"

You are literally proving my point.

No, you said 10-20 years. In 20 years you will have large scale quantum radar (US been working on it since 1990) and high Qbit (Qbyte possibly) s quantum computing with low error rates inside most militaries. Laser based systems are not that crazy anymore in 2024, Air Force One is said to have it and that’s been around years in its current set up.

The 6th gen USAF fighter is rumored to have direct energy based weaponary for defensive purposes (possibly offense as well).

The tech is there and ready, but you need buyers. Cheap Drone swarms and $500 rockets are not the main concern of most countries outside of Israel/Ukraine/US right now. CRAM works great, Iran’s Majid works great, Pantsir works fine, etc. Chinese are experimenting to see if lasers can be used to melt the heat shield of a hypersonic cruise missile causing it to suffer structural failure.

The main benefit right now is long term cost savings. Which we know is the least concern of the bloated US and Israel militaries.

 

[mulj]

No, you said 10-20 years. In 20 years you will have large scale quantum radar (US been working on it since 1990) and high Qbit (Qbyte possibly) s quantum computing with low error rates inside most militaries. Laser based systems are not that crazy anymore in 2024, Air Force One is said to have it and that’s been around years in its current set up.

The 6th gen USAF fighter is rumored to have direct energy based weaponary for defensive purposes (possibly offense as well).

The tech is there and ready, but you need buyers. Cheap Drone swarms and $500 rockets are not the main concern of most countries outside of Israel/Ukraine/US right now. CRAM works great, Iran’s Majid works great, Pantsir works fine, etc. Chinese are experimenting to see if lasers can be used to melt the heat shield of a hypersonic cruise missile causing it to suffer structural failure.

The main benefit right now is long term cost savings. Which we know is the least concern of the bloated US and Israel militaries.

Did not the coating of missiles make rendered whole laser thing useless as the beam can not catch on target?