PakFactor
Elite Member
I still don't know how/why the unraveling of the Resistance happened so quickly. I don't think Hezbollah was defeated and if anything they were exacting some cost to Israel in Lebanon and keeping Israelis in disarray where even Tel Aviv was being targeted a little bit. The Gazans were still blowing up Israeli vehicles. Iran was supposed to launch its 'retaliatory strike'. I didn't even believe that Hezbollah would agree with the ceasefire, especially the terms like withdrawal to the Litani River. And then the biggest surprise was the rapid dismantling of the Assad regime--and that has basically stopped the conflict. Even seasoned analysts like Colonial Outcasts proved wrong when he downplayed the fall of Aleppo.
There is some kind of behind the scene deals: Assad's ouster, Iran pulling back, Syrian rebels giving almost a general amnesty, Trump's involvement via Jared Kushner. I will look up Chas Freeman who, to me, is the most reliable analyst to explain the recent major changes.
From my speaking with people with relatives in Lebanon in the area Hezbollah is known to operate in, they've been heavily penetrated, and it wasn't shown much on the news, but the Israelis were pounding them away through air strikes. Besides the occasional engagements and blowing up vehicles and tanks, not much damage was inflicted on Israel's manpower. Secondly, Israelis mostly went for higher grounds (hilltops), surveyed the area, established a grid map strategy, and pounded lower positions.
My gut feeling is the Israelis didn't penetrate Lebanon in a few months. They've had years and have slowly worked up their network since the 2006 conflict.
The Assad regime, I do feel there were behind-the-scenes talks. The fool was becoming a liability; his brutality did him in, too, but his leaving also destabilized Syria for the future.





