Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[Falcon29]

Without a response, they are going to be in constant degradation, its impossible to build capacity while being continuously bombed. There is no deterrent, neither a diplomatic one, not a military one. I don't think they are "waiting for Iran" to be attacked, I think the Israelis are doing what they always do, which is constant aggression.

Yeah they will be in degradation. But they key is to establish intelligence division then rebuild communications network. They should be able to store/replenish rockets faster than Israel can destroy them.

The only option for a military escalation here is to renegotiate the ceasefire terms. Which is unlikely to happen unless they're willing to fight it out for months. It's similar to what they agreed to in 2006. But with time the ceasefire terms became irrelevant. Hezbollah will try waiting it out for a few years then bring up ceasefire violations of Israel as to why they've deployed in the South again.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[925boy]

Pretty big statement for someone who doesn't have details. He is a random MP, no one important, he wouldn't know this stuff.

That said, I have seen rumblings that Israel is preparing to relaunch a larger war against Hezbollah/Lebanon. But that doesn't make sense given they are assassinating Hezbollah fighters on a daily basis without facing any consequences.

I strongly feel that about now or NOW is the best time for the Axis of Resistance to bombard Israel- now is just the best time to hit Israel because Israel's military is the weakest its been now (because of toll of the war from Oct. 7 to now), and its allies are also distracted and less-resourced (to support Israel) because of the Ukraine war.

But even if we accept that maybe Hezbollah or/and most of the AoR are not in "good shape "to fight Israel, then not hitting Israel now will be accepted soon as one of the biggest missed opportunities for the AoR to take back regional control from Israel.

Also, AoR,especially Hezbollah, is concluding now that not fighting Israel brings no benefits, and actually involves taking slow and sustained losses, so if that continues, that means that the chance that Hezbollah goes back to firing projectiles at Israel is increasing over time.

Or is Iran ready and planning to continue fighting Israel through proxies for another 1-3 decades instead of cranking up the heat on Israel now given its the best time to try to crack and break Israel and its military capabilities. Timing matters, so just wondering what sort of timeline and timing the AoR is on now vis-a-vis the war against Israel (at least started because of the Gaza war).

 

[925boy]

It would seem Hezbollah has decided to die silently, they are bombing above the Litani.

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Because Hezbollah is staying quiet doesnt mean its dying. I mean, if Israel still can't kill off Hamas in Gaza, which is still smaller and less capable than Hezbollah , how could it cause Hezbollah "die silently"?

Israel at best has destroyed 30% of Hezbollah's capabilities.

Israeli airpower performed quite badly against Hamas and its tunnels, so why would be believe it was more effective against Hezbollah and its tunnels which were more complex and quality built with help from North Koreans?

*Related to posters who go along with the - "Hezbollah is dead and defeated" angle..*
I guess some people with surface level knowledge can't really have below surface level of understanding. These issues are quite complex and multi-layered, so concluding off visble, obvious and simple perceptions will fail in understanding the real trajectory of the regional war against Israel.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israel has killed 180 Hezbollah members since the 'ceasefire' took effect 6 months ago

1 martyr per day

 

[Falcon29]

The issue is if important people are getting killed (that aren't expendable), then eventually a deterrence equation has to be established.

I don't think Hezbollah will allow this to go on into 2026. They're waiting now to see if the Gaza war ends this year or not, after which it's likely Israel deescalates in Lebanon as well.

Now it's possible that doesn't happen. Syrians will also lose patience 3-5 years from now if sanctions aren't being removed and Israel starts bombing Syria more aggressively. 2028-2030 people are gonna fed up with Israel and it will be open season on Israel if Israel doesn't change course.

 

[Watandar]

Israel has killed 180 Hezbollah members since the 'ceasefire' took effect 6 months ago

1 martyr per day

Hezbollah is truly between a rock and a hard place. The supply line from Syria has been cut and its personnel and communications is so compromised they dont know what to do. The new Lebanese govt is also a puppet of the US envoy, Morgan Ortaganus. They are in survival mode and will have to be for some years until the climate hopefully improves. For Hezbollah to give up its armed wing would be utter foolishness.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah is truly between a rock and a hard place. The supply line from Syria has been cut and its personnel and communications is so compromised they dont know what to do. The new Lebanese govt is also a puppet of the US envoy, Morgan Ortaganus. They are in survival mode and will have to be for some years until the climate hopefully improves. For Hezbollah to give up its armed wing would be utter foolishness.

Israel is claiming that Hezbollah is constantly trying to restore known sites, so they are a bit more than "in survival mode", but I agree with the rest of your post.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

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Lebanese army shows up and removes an Israeli flag

Almost forgot they existed

 

[Sultan Baybars]

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Lebanese army shows up and removes an Israeli flag

Almost forgot they existed

The Lebanese Army needs investments, training, weapons and money.

I wish Turkey and the GCC invest in the Lebanese Army. A strong Lebanon is a big problem for Israel.

What if Lebanon had a Air Defence or a big Navy to protect their gasfields?

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

Israel warns of imminent bombings of 8 buildings in Beirut, claims they host underground drone manufacturing sites

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[Persian Gulf]

Israel is bombing Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, West Bank, and Yemen, with no consequences.