Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hamas is far more damaged and decimated than Hezbollah and in far more dire condition but still they dont give a up and fight.

Hamas has no choice but to fight because Israel doesn't want peace

I understand the concerns for IDF airstrikes, but NO WAY the IDF can flatten Libanon like they do with Gaza. No way.

Have you seen south Lebanon lately? It is already flattened like Gaza and Israel is not allowing any reconstruction to happen

Lebanon is a different story. A independant sovereign nation with a UN-seat. A country with a great Christian minority and hundreds of churches. They have connections with the Orthodox and the Catholic Church worldwide.

If Lebanese government wants to launch this war, then Hezbollah will surely support them

But Hezbollah cannot make the decision to drag a state to war against its will. That UN seat and international backers belong to Lebanon not Hezbollah.

 

[Falcon29]

Wiam Wahhab: There is a storm brewing for Hezbollah, but I don't have the details.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Persian Gulf]

Wiam Wahhab: There is a storm brewing for Hezbollah, but I don't have the details.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Pretty big statement for someone who doesn't have details. He is a random MP, no one important, he wouldn't know this stuff.

That said, I have seen rumblings that Israel is preparing to relaunch a larger war against Hezbollah/Lebanon. But that doesn't make sense given they are assassinating Hezbollah fighters on a daily basis without facing any consequences.

 

[Falcon29]

Pretty big statement for someone who doesn't have details. He is a random MP, no one important, he wouldn't know this stuff.

It's his brand, he will say stuff that gets headlines to remain relevant as a political analyst. In the video he can't make up his mind if it's about Syria or Israel. The journalist questioned him hard and called him out.

That said, I have seen rumblings that Israel is preparing to relaunch a larger war against Hezbollah/Lebanon. But that doesn't make sense given they are assassinating Hezbollah fighters on a daily basis without facing any consequences.

Yeah, Israel will keep at this pace because it makes economic sense for them and poses least risk to their security. They certainly won't stop anytime soon as they try to push their vision for Lebanon and make it gain traction internationally and domestically.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israeli media finally given permission to publish photos of some of the damage suffered in north Israel from war with Hezbollah for the first time

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

new round of Israeli airstrikes across south Lebanon

secondaries are very visible, suggesting a rocket launcher / warehouse was hit

Hezbollah trying to re-establish itself in south Lebanon?

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Hezbollah publishes defiant video, "we are not defeated"

Hezbollah has lost political clout and has moved underground, but constant IDF strikes reflect Hezbollah working to reestablish itself

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Hezbollah publishes video of fighters preparing heavy rocket launchers for strikes on Haifa from the war

These were supposed to be part of large-scale coordinated launches, but the compromised communications networks, pager attacks, leadership losses and constant assassinations of key individuals meant that launch crews had to work independently and were thus far less effective

Though they did manage a direct hit in Tel Aviv in the final days of the war which caused significant damage

25 November 2024:

"The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said a direct hit on one neighbourhood [in Tel Aviv] had left "houses in flames and ruins".

Rockets fell in Petah Tikva, near Tel Aviv, and in some northern areas: Haifa, Nahariya and Kfar Blum, Israeli media reported."

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[hyperman]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[hyperman]

It would seem Hezbollah has decided to die silently, they are bombing above the Litani.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Falcon29]

It would seem Hezbollah has decided to die silently, they are bombing above the Litani.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

It could be that Hezbollah preserved it's weapons for a greater conflict and Israel is trying to bait them before a US led or Israeli attack on Iran.

Or they weren't prepared well and need to reorganize and recover. Which means they will absorb these strikes for as long as there isn't a ground offensive in southern Lebanon or strikes causing civilian casualties.

^^

In that case they don't really have a choice. They have to invest time in figuring out best ways to conceal/acquire weapons and deploy them against Israel. And figure out their internal security situation by creating a cyber task force and investing in a intelligence division. Which will take a long time. They need about two years to get into a acceptable state.

Of course they can some fire rockets but it won't deter Israel. And then Lebanese domestic population and parties will blame them for sabatoging ceasefire agreement.

I think if they go back to their military roots and invest in intelligence division, they will be like 2006 era Hezbollah, but with more advanced weapons and better firepower. Though unlikely whatever Israel was hyping them to be (200,000 missiles and 3,000 rockets a day, anti-ship missiles, etc ....).

 

[Persian Gulf]

In that case they don't really have a choice. They have to invest time in figuring out best ways to conceal/acquire weapons and deploy them against Israel. And figure out their internal security situation by creating a cyber task force and investing in a intelligence division. Which will take a long time. They need about two years to get into a acceptable state.

Of course they can some fire rockets but it won't deter Israel. And then Lebanese domestic population and parties will blame them for sabatoging ceasefire agreement.

I think if they go back to their military roots and invest in intelligence division, they will be like 2006 era Hezbollah, but with more advanced weapons and better firepower. Though unlikely whatever Israel was hyping them to be (200,000 missiles and 3,000 rockets a day, anti-ship missiles, etc ....).

good objective analysis not designed to troll (unlike others we see in this thread with a pathological obsession with Iran/Hezbollah)

they need to go underground again while they recover

constant Israeli assassinations at known Hezbollah sites indicate constant efforts to restore capabilities by Hezbollah (both sides in violation of ceasefire in that case)

Israel infiltrated Hezbollah very deeply and this will take time to assess and rectify and to promote new leaders and command structure and communications network

but even in the last days before the ceasefire they were still firing heavy rockets at Tel Aviv, they likely still have significant capabilities but the leadership assassinations disrupted all their pre-war plans and units had to act solo without the desired effectiveness

 

[hyperman]

It could be that Hezbollah preserved it's weapons for a greater conflict and Israel is trying to bait them before a US led or Israeli attack on Iran.

Or they weren't prepared well and need to reorganize and recover. Which means they will absorb these strikes for as long as there isn't a ground offensive in southern Lebanon or strikes causing civilian casualties.

^^

In that case they don't really have a choice. They have to invest time in figuring out best ways to conceal/acquire weapons and deploy them against Israel. And figure out their internal security situation by creating a cyber task force and investing in a intelligence division. Which will take a long time. They need about two years to get into a acceptable state.

Of course they can some fire rockets but it won't deter Israel. And then Lebanese domestic population and parties will blame them for sabatoging ceasefire agreement.

I think if they go back to their military roots and invest in intelligence division, they will be like 2006 era Hezbollah, but with more advanced weapons and better firepower. Though unlikely whatever Israel was hyping them to be (200,000 missiles and 3,000 rockets a day, anti-ship missiles, etc ....).

Without a response, they are going to be in constant degradation, its impossible to build capacity while being continuously bombed. There is no deterrent, neither a diplomatic one, not a military one. I don't think they are "waiting for Iran" to be attacked, I think the Israelis are doing what they always do, which is constant aggression.