Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[ResurgentIran2]

They won't invade but escalate airstrikes even though the current pace suits their objectives just fine

They still appear uncertain about what they want to do

Since the ceasefire does not stipulate that Hezbollah disarm. It just required Hezbollah to withdraw to North of Litani.

Israel is coming to realization that Hamas + Hezbollah can't be eliminated

It's possible they come to this realization and find a different approach

Or they double down which isn't going to work and could get them into a regional war with everybody. They're losing public support in the West.

Nah, they'll invade sooner or later. They have no choice but to do that given their objective of disarming Hezbollah.

Unless the Lebanese military decide to take decisive action against Hezbollah (and risk a civil war), an Israeli invasion is inevitable. Plus disarmament isnt the only objective. They want southern Lebanon with its fertile land and water resources to occupy and include in their greater Israel project,

 

[Falcon29]

Nah, they'll invade sooner or later. They have no choice but to do that given their objective of disarming Hezbollah.

Unless the Lebanese military decide to take decisive action against Hezbollah (and risk a civil war), an Israeli invasion is inevitable. Plus disarmament isnt the only objective. They want southern Lebanon with its fertile land and water resources to occupy and include in their greater Israel project,

If US greenlights it, I agree. You'd think US is changing tone based on recent statements and Gaza 'peace deal'.

Now it's becoming clear the 'peace deal' is just them getting creative at disarming Gaza. Make it less controversial. After they allowed Israel to kill with impunity for two years straight.

If US greenlights then Israel and Arab/Muslim governments in region are going to collapse. 'Greater Israel' will not be able to cement itself. It will actually be the reason people fight back rather than stand by idle this whole time

 

[ResurgentIran2]

If US greenlights it, I agree. You'd think US is changing tone based on recent statements and Gaza 'peace deal'.

Now it's becoming clear the 'peace deal' is just them getting creative at disarming Gaza. Make it less controversial. After they allowed Israel to kill with impunity for two years straight.

If US greenlights then Israel and Arab/Muslim governments in region are going to collapse. 'Greater Israel' will not be able to cement itself. It will actually be the reason people fight back rather than stand by idle this whole time

I was always very skeptical of the so called peace deal. I never believed for a second it would halt the genocide. Perhaps a short paus at best.

However I think Hamas played it smart and made the right strategic choice. The hostages were perhaps becoming more of a burden than a bargaining chip. Had they held on to the hostages, the genocide would obviously continue and probably pick up pace. And Hamas could have seen themselves losing the narrative and lose politically.

As far as Israeli ambitions go. Its clear they are going to attempt to more expansion. Thats at the core of the Zionist ideology.

There is only one solution to this. War.
Israel needs to be militarilly defeated, occupied and denazified. That may bring mass casualities, but it is what it is.
Unfortunately there is no army in the region that can do this, as things currently stand. Hezbollah, while a strong militia, has been weakened and even if they werent, they are at the end of the day not a state but a milita. They dont have the manpower or resources to pose that kind of strategic challenge to Israeli hegemony. What they can do is to defend South Lebanon and make that the graveyard of Israels northern command. But that doesnt solve the underlying problem which is the existence of this satanic state.

Iran can lob missiles and do serious damage, but again it doesnt solve the problem. And Iran is too far away.
Forget about the Gulf states. They are simply an irrelevant (and obedient) actor in military terms, not to mention in the case of UAE a close ally to Israel.

Where I do see a chance is Egypt. They are a true nation state (and a very large one at that) with all the resources and manpower that entails.
Unfortunately for the time being, Egypt has been subdued by the Camp David accords and annual American aid.
But things can change. As Israel grows more crazy (which it is) Egypt will be left with few options but to confront their satanic neighbor to the north. Or alternatively they will risk regime destabilization or even collapse, as you alluded to.

 

[_Arabia_]

@mangekyo

You are living in your own alternative reality.

KSA and USA have been allies/on largely friendly terms before Israel even came into existence as a country.

Arabs, KSA included on 2 occasions (1948 and 1973), unlike Iranians and every other non-Arabs, actually fought actual large-scale wars with Israel.

You never fired even a single rocket at Israel for almost 50 years until 1-2 years ago, when Israel itself started bombing you freely. You replying to this has nothing to do with some imaginary claims of fighting for Palestinians or other Arabs as we have been hearing about (propaganda) for the past 46 years.

It was also KSA, not Iran or anybody else, that was behind the oil embargo of the 1970's which to this day was the most hostile economic action against the collective West and the action that hurt it the most.

1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

KSA is also the author of Arab Peace Initiative which is the most comprehensive peace proposal which is also supported by the entire Arab League, Hamas, Fatah and almost every single OIC member state.

Arab Peace Initiative - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Meanwhile from 1948 (Israel's creation) to 1979, Iran was the greatest Israeli ally in the region.

Even during the Mullah reign, Iran was happily receiving and accepting Israeli support (Iran-Contra affair) against Iraq.

Israeli support for Iran during the Iran–Iraq War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Same Iranian Mullah regime was happily aiding the US (which worked along with Israel which was the main regional country along with Iran that wanted the removal of Saddam Hussein and Taliban) to topple/invade Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan in 2001.

You have several Iranian high-ranking Mullahs and the likes of Ahmadinejad (President) openly claiming and bragging about it.

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Thank you for confirming what I am saying. All those ARAB groups (Houthis, PMU, Hezbollah) did not come into existence due to Iran (although aided and supported by Iran) but they are mostly organic movements, which I have always claimed.

You must live in some serious alternative reality if you believe that KSA (or any Arab nation state or Muslim nation state for that matter) has the ability, will etc. to act like the regional cop and solve all the domestic/local problems in each Arab country.

Would be amazing if there were such an Arab country out there that had the ability to do so but I am afraid that even the US cannot keep law and order in their neighborhood (Mexico, Central America, South America, Caribbean).

The problem is not Iranian support for those groups by itself. The problem is their hypocrisy and the entire fake "axis of resistance" which has nothing to do with fighting Israel or the US. It is about those militias consolidating their own rule, Iran destabilizing their host countries etc.

Iran gains influence in the region (which they otherwise could not do), those groups get a patron and keep their fiefdoms/groups intact. Both benefit from this. Not sure the host countries and people do. The answer is obviously a big no.

Otherwise why is Iran itself not accepting foreign-backed militias to operate within Iran itself, often at odds with official Iranian institutions? So far no Iranian has ever been able to answer this simple question which we all know the answer to.

Case in point Iranian/Hezbollah support for secular Ba'ath Arab Nationalist Al-Assad regime while both claiming to be Islamist forces.

So not only are those groups backward, operating only in failed and unstable countries, not interested in leaving power for the sake of the unity of their host countries, but they are often prioritizing Iranian regime policies which are contrary to the interests of their own people and nations.

In short the Iranian regime has not been a positive in this regard.

Personally I don't really care that much anymore, it does not impact KSA much or 90% of all 500 million Arabs, but if those Arab countries prefer being failed states and do not learn from their mistakes, I cannot do much and I will just wait until things naturally return to normal. The youth in those countries are not interested and are smarter than that.

And no, showing you a concrete example of the negative influence of Iranian-aligned Shia militias in Iraq for Iraq and ordinary Iraqis is very much on topic.

‘This Is Colonialism, Not Investment’: Iran-Aligned Bloc Stalls Iraq–Saudi Deal - The Media Line

Despite the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in 2023, after the […]

themedialine.org

 

[Shags101]

I don't understand why Hezbollah isn't doing anything to respond to the Israeli attacks and daily assassinations?

After what happened I don’t think a year or longer to to reorganize rearm and find out what caused all of their security failures for Israel to have to be able to know much about their inner workings and I’m definitely thinking the same goes for Iran don’t think it’s over just because they haven’t rallied their men to south Lebanon we know they’re there Israel knows they’re there but even they don’t know the exact locations because they would be bombing every house cave and tunnel right now

 

[Sarhang]

@mangekyo

You are living in your own alternative reality.

KSA and USA have been allies/on largely friendly terms before Israel even came into existence as a country.

Arabs, KSA included on 2 occasions (1948 and 1973), unlike Iranians and every other non-Arabs, actually fought actual large-scale wars with Israel.

You never fired even a single rocket at Israel for almost 50 years until 1-2 years ago, when Israel itself started bombing you freely. You replying to this has nothing to do with some imaginary claims of fighting for Palestinians or other Arabs as we have been hearing about (propaganda) for the past 46 years.

It was also KSA, not Iran or anybody else, that was behind the oil embargo of the 1970's which to this day was the most hostile economic action against the collective West and the action that hurt it the most.

1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

KSA is also the author of Arab Peace Initiative which is the most comprehensive peace proposal which is also supported by the entire Arab League, Hamas, Fatah and almost every single OIC member state.

Arab Peace Initiative - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Meanwhile from 1948 (Israel's creation) to 1979, Iran was the greatest Israeli ally in the region.

Even during the Mullah reign, Iran was happily receiving and accepting Israeli support (Iran-Contra affair) against Iraq.

Israeli support for Iran during the Iran–Iraq War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Same Iranian Mullah regime was happily aiding the US (which worked along with Israel which was the main regional country along with Iran that wanted the removal of Saddam Hussein and Taliban) to topple/invade Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan in 2001.

You have several Iranian high-ranking Mullahs and the likes of Ahmadinejad (President) openly claiming and bragging about it.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Thank you for confirming what I am saying. All those ARAB groups (Houthis, PMU, Hezbollah) did not come into existence due to Iran (although aided and supported by Iran) but they are mostly organic movements, which I have always claimed.

You must live in some serious alternative reality if you believe that KSA (or any Arab nation state or Muslim nation state for that matter) has the ability, will etc. to act like the regional cop and solve all the domestic/local problems in each Arab country.

Would be amazing if there were such an Arab country out there that had the ability to do so but I am afraid that even the US cannot keep law and order in their neighborhood (Mexico, Central America, South America, Caribbean).

The problem is not Iranian support for those groups by itself. The problem is their hypocrisy and the entire fake "axis of resistance" which has nothing to do with fighting Israel or the US. It is about those militias consolidating their own rule, Iran destabilizing their host countries etc.

Iran gains influence in the region (which they otherwise could not do), those groups get a patron and keep their fiefdoms/groups intact. Both benefit from this. Not sure the host countries and people do. The answer is obviously a big no.

Otherwise why is Iran itself not accepting foreign-backed militias to operate within Iran itself, often at odds with official Iranian institutions? So far no Iranian has ever been able to answer this simple question which we all know the answer to.

Case in point Iranian/Hezbollah support for secular Ba'ath Arab Nationalist Al-Assad regime while both claiming to be Islamist forces.

So not only are those groups backward, operating only in failed and unstable countries, not interested in leaving power for the sake of the unity of their host countries, but they are often prioritizing Iranian regime policies which are contrary to the interests of their own people and nations.

In short the Iranian regime has not been a positive in this regard.

Personally I don't really care that much anymore, it does not impact KSA much or 90% of all 500 million Arabs, but if those Arab countries prefer being failed states and do not learn from their mistakes, I cannot do much and I will just wait until things naturally return to normal. The youth in those countries are not interested and are smarter than that.

And no, showing you a concrete example of the negative influence of Iranian-aligned Shia militias in Iraq for Iraq and ordinary Iraqis is very much on topic.

‘This Is Colonialism, Not Investment’: Iran-Aligned Bloc Stalls Iraq–Saudi Deal - The Media Line

Despite the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in 2023, after the […]

themedialine.org

While its true that the mullah regime -not Iran itself- plays a negative role in neighboring states you cant pin everything on them. The reality isnt so black and white; there are countless internal factors at play in each of these situations.

Take Iraqs Hashd Shaabi for example, its an Iraqi organization born from Iraqi society. The blame falls on them and their political leaders who willingly act as puppets for a bunch of illiterate mullahs.


The same applies to Yemen, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rest, they are all native to their own countries. If you want to reduce the influence of the IR regime the only real solution is to strengthen the state. Look at Lebanon: the country is paralyzed and unsure what to do with an armed militia operating freely inside its borders. How can any state function like that?


My point is this: Arab countries and societies must rise up and free themselves from the grip of the IR regime. While the Iranian people are fighting the regimes head you are facing its weakened tentacles and the last few years have already shown that those tentacles can be cut.

About Israels support for the IR, yes, it did happen, but it was very limited and only took place in the early 1980s.

 

[_Arabia_]

While its true that the mullah regime -not Iran itself- plays a negative role in neighboring states you cant pin everything on them. The reality isnt so black and white; there are countless internal factors at play in each of these situations.

Take Iraqs Hashd Shaabi for example, its an Iraqi organization born from Iraqi society. The blame falls on them and their political leaders who willingly act as puppets for a bunch of illiterate mullahs.


The same applies to Yemen, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rest, they are all native to their own countries. If you want to reduce the influence of the IR regime the only real solution is to strengthen the state. Look at Lebanon: the country is paralyzed and unsure what to do with an armed militia operating freely inside its borders. How can any state function like that?


My point is this: Arab countries and societies must rise up and free themselves from the grip of the IR regime. While the Iranian people are fighting the regimes head you are facing its weakened tentacles and the last few years have already shown that those tentacles can be cut.

About Israels support for the IR, yes, it did happen, but it was very limited and only took place in the early 1980s.

Whether we like it or not we tend to equal entire countries and all of their people due to the actions of a few people (the leadership of a country). That was always the case throughout all of recorded history. Iran is no different here. It should not be like that, in particular in our region where people (ordinary) have little say but nevertheless that is how it is everywhere.

I never claimed that Iran Is to blame for everything (lol). My point is just that Iranian regime policies in the Arab world (mostly support for pro-Iran/Iran-aligned militias/terrorist groups/whatever you want to call them in mostly only failed/unstable/war torn Arab countries) has not been a positive thing for those countries and their people by large. The negatives far outweigh the few positives.

Otherwise I agree with you fully.

I mean, what I wrote earlier confirms this. In no sane/healthy/stable state in the first place, are you going to accept ANY foreign-aligned/supported militias to act against your own state institutions or to act like a state within a state like the case with those militias. That is self-evident. Which is also why you don't see that in countries like KSA, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, UAE etc. in the region. Say whatever you want to say about those countries and their leadership but they have not fallen this low to tolerate/enable such a thing to occur.

The situation in Iran is different from the situation in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. The situation in Lebanon is different from the situation in Yemen and Iraq and vice versa etc.

All of those groups/militias will survive the fall of the Iranian regime (most likely, although they will be weaker).

The reality though is that most Shia Arab Lebanese in Southern Lebanon (probably due to their experience with Israeli actions, the disunity of Lebanon since the very beginning and its collapse as a nation) support them for various reasons. Same story with many Iraqi Shia Arabs and Zaydi Yemenis.

But to be honest, we all know that those groups/leaderships are incredibly backward, failures by large and that they have not provided even the basics to their people.

But among the religious Shia Arabs (in particular) due to the Twelver doctrine (which is completely different to Sunni Islam) in this regard, blind/following of their leadership, they are required to follow a Marja and even to give 20% of their money away to them. So those groups/leadership always take a religious/angle (Black Turbans) and the Houthi family have taken huge advantage of that, Hezbollah leadership similarly and more than anybody else all of those militia leaders among Shias in Iraq the most. But due to this open corruption, hypocrisy and lack of development for the people, the youth in all of those places are waking up and not much different from the Iranian youth by large in this regard. I don't think that those groups and their leadership can survive for much longer. I will give it at the most 20 years before they are gone and hopefully replaced by something better and more intelligent.

 

[Sarhang]

Whether we like it or not we tend to equal entire countries and all of their people due to the actions of a few people (the leadership of a country). That was always the case throughout all of recorded history. Iran is no different here. It should not be like that, in particular in our region where people (ordinary) have little say but nevertheless that is how it is everywhere.

I never claimed that Iran Is to blame for everything (lol). My point is just that Iranian regime policies in the Arab world (mostly support for pro-Iran/Iran-aligned militias/terrorist groups/whatever you want to call them in mostly only failed/unstable/war torn Arab countries) has not been a positive thing for those countries and their people by large. The negatives far outweigh the few positives.

Otherwise I agree with you fully.

I mean, what I wrote earlier confirms this. In no sane/healthy/stable state in the first place, are you going to accept ANY foreign-aligned/supported militias to act against your own state institutions or to act like a state within a state like the case with those militias. That is self-evident. Which is also why you don't see that in countries like KSA, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, UAE etc. in the region. Say whatever you want to say about those countries and their leadership but they have not fallen this low to tolerate/enable such a thing to occur.

The situation in Iran is different from the situation in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. The situation in Lebanon is different from the situation in Yemen and Iraq and vice versa etc.

All of those groups/militias will survive the fall of the Iranian regime (most likely, although they will be weaker).

The reality though is that most Shia Arab Lebanese in Southern Lebanon (probably due to their experience with Israeli actions, the disunity of Lebanon since the very beginning and its collapse as a nation) support them for various reasons. Same story with many Iraqi Shia Arabs and Zaydi Yemenis.

But to be honest, we all know that those groups/leaderships are incredibly backward, failures by large and that they have not provided even the basics to their people.

But among the religious Shia Arabs (in particular) due to the Twelver doctrine (which is completely different to Sunni Islam) in this regard, blind/following of their leadership, they are required to follow a Marja and even to give 20% of their money away to them. So those groups/leadership always take a religious/angle (Black Turbans) and the Houthi family have taken huge advantage of that, Hezbollah leadership similarly and more than anybody else all of those militia leaders among Shias in Iraq the most. But due to this open corruption, hypocrisy and lack of development for the people, the youth in all of those places are waking up and not much different from the Iranian youth by large in this regard. I don't think that those groups and their leadership can survive for much longer. I will give it at the most 20 years before they are gone and hopefully replaced by something better and more intelligent.

Obviously, as time goes on and science and technology advance people will naturally become more educated and civil- even in poorer nations. I just hope we get to see a civilized Middle East in our lifetime; one where religious extremism stays inside peoples homes and not out on the streets; and where the state protects its citizens instead of terrorizing them.

That said, the general sentiment among Iranians today toward Saudi Arabia is actually positive thanks to recent developments. (Ignore the IR voices, they are a small minority.) The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has acted wisely and pragmatically following its national interests. As we say in Persian: when the king is absent, chaos will ensue. Both Saudi Arabia and Morocco are stable monarchies and I genuinely hope they remain that way as examples for others to learn from.

We are now in a situation that even Hamas is more rational than the mullah regime. Interesting times ahead.

 

[_Arabia_]

Obviously, as time goes on and science and technology advance people will naturally become more educated and civil- even in poorer nations. I just hope we get to see a civilized Middle East in our lifetime; one where religious extremism stays inside peoples homes and not out on the streets; and where the state protects its citizens instead of terrorizing them.

That said, the general sentiment among Iranians today toward Saudi Arabia is actually positive thanks to recent developments. (Ignore the IR voices, they are a small minority.) The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has acted wisely and pragmatically following its national interests. As we say in Persian: when the king is absent, chaos will ensue. Both Saudi Arabia and Morocco are stable monarchies and I genuinely hope they remain that way as examples for others to learn from.

We are now in a situation that even Hamas is more rational than the mullah regime. Interesting times ahead.

If I am to be honest with you, the fault for many of the problems in our region is not Islam (maybe how it has been implemented in various countries and by whom - often hypocritically and falsely if you ask me) or religion for that matter. There are many factors at play here from corruption, zero-sum game, power games between ethnic, religious, regional groups, weak state institutions, outside interference/colonization, lack of stability, generally the Middle East losing power/influence for the past many centuries (if not almost 800 years by now) compared to previous heights where it otherwise was the leading region or one of the leading regions of the world for millennia on most fronts.

It is a combination of all of the above. Authoritarianism is another huge problem regardless in which form (religious, nationalist etc.).

Many intelligent people from the region and outside of it, have been writing about this topic for decades/centuries and there are all kind of theories floating out there.

I share your sentiment about hoping that things will improve.

As for KSA/Arabs and Iran and people to people relations, in the real world, historically speaking, Arabia (Eastern Arabia in particular) and Iraq and Iran have had long-term cultural, linguistic, ancestral, people to people, geographical, cuisine, music, architecture, religious, civilizational etc. ties since recorded history began (basically).

My problem (and that of 99.99% of all Saudi Arabians and Arabs as a whole) was never ordinary non-hostile Iranians. Same thing the other way around. Both of our people are welcoming people to outsiders. Of course there is rivalry, competition, historical events (not that many actually when you read history) that have shaped events as well. But overall no reason for any permanent hatred/rivalry.

The competition should be in how our countries/leadership can best serve our people and in general work towards mutual benefits and most importantly peace/stability which is the requirement for everything else.

BTW, nothing against Shia Muslims or any other sect, but the reality is that Shias have a very "top down" religious system. I also believe that every Shia Twelver is required to follow a Grand Ayatollah and his rulings. Sunnis don't have this system which is why you don't see many (very few) Muslims outside of Turkiye follow the Grand Mufti of Turkey or foreign Sunnis follow the Grand Mufti of KSA etc. Barely any Sunnis outside of Egypt are even following the Al-Azhar. Sunnis were always more about following the Qur'an, the Sunnah and the Ijma of the scholars (as a whole) rather than following specific religious figures/scholars. Nowadays among the younger generation I rarely see anybody follow 1 specific scholar but they are listening to numerous and taking the best parts/what they agree with most from them. Probably "Muslim influencers" online are more popular nowadays than any scholar to begin with, lol.

This is probably the main difference between Sunni and Shias (Twelvers) in practical terms.

Ironically Iranian regime policies within Iran has just lead to more Iranians leaving Islam and religion and have a counterproductive effect. But you know that already as an Iranian.

As for KSA-Iran people to people relations (there is much ignorance from both sides - I do not claim to be an expert on Iran either and as I am yet to visit I am even less of an authority - met many Iranians in KSA, GCC countries and even other Arab countries, West) and overall there are more similarities than the opposite but this goes for all people of the region, including the Arab/Middle Eastern Jews.

But the few Iranian influencers online who have visited KSA or interacted with locals seem to have a rather positive view:

Discovered him a few days ago after reading this interesting post of his:

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(you can check his Twitter history by searching his profile)

There is also this guy, probably one of the most "famous/followed" online Iranians out there (or one of them):

His most viewed series was when he visited KSA:

https://www.youtube.com/@themrtaster/videos (most visited video from KSA)

but somehow I cannot see his KSA playlist.

He has visited other regional countries, including other Arab countries too.

Seems like a great and funny guy, I liked watching his videos in KSA and elsewhere.

Same way the other way around which frankly does not surprise me much, but those are all in Arabic (Saudi Arabians visiting Iran, not only Saudi Arabian Shias) but material is in Arabic.

We are a bit off-topic but I don't know where to have such debates which are necessary for the region and people.

 

[Sarhang]

If I am to be honest with you, the fault for many of the problems in our region is not Islam (maybe how it has been implemented in various countries and by whom - often hypocritically and falsely if you ask me) or religion for that matter. There are many factors at play here from corruption, zero-sum game, power games between ethnic, religious, regional groups, weak state institutions, outside interference/colonization, lack of stability, generally the Middle East losing power/influence for the past many centuries (if not almost 800 years by now) compared to previous heights where it otherwise was the leading region or one of the leading regions of the world for millennia on most fronts.

It is a combination of all of the above. Authoritarianism is another huge problem regardless in which form (religious, nationalist etc.).

Many intelligent people from the region and outside of it, have been writing about this topic for decades/centuries and there are all kind of theories floating out there.

I share your sentiment about hoping that things will improve.

As for KSA/Arabs and Iran and people to people relations, in the real world, historically speaking, Arabia (Eastern Arabia in particular) and Iraq and Iran have had long-term cultural, linguistic, ancestral, people to people, geographical, cuisine, music, architecture, religious, civilizational etc. ties since recorded history began (basically).

My problem (and that of 99.99% of all Saudi Arabians and Arabs as a whole) was never ordinary non-hostile Iranians. Same thing the other way around. Both of our people are welcoming people to outsiders. Of course there is rivalry, competition, historical events (not that many actually when you read history) that have shaped events as well. But overall no reason for any permanent hatred/rivalry.

The competition should be in how our countries/leadership can best serve our people and in general work towards mutual benefits and most importantly peace/stability which is the requirement for everything else.

BTW, nothing against Shia Muslims or any other sect, but the reality is that Shias have a very "top down" religious system. I also believe that every Shia Twelver is required to follow a Grand Ayatollah and his rulings. Sunnis don't have this system which is why you don't see many (very few) Muslims outside of Turkiye follow the Grand Mufti of Turkey or foreign Sunnis follow the Grand Mufti of KSA etc. Barely any Sunnis outside of Egypt are even following the Al-Azhar. Sunnis were always more about following the Qur'an, the Sunnah and the Ijma of the scholars (as a whole) rather than following specific religious figures/scholars. Nowadays among the younger generation I rarely see anybody follow 1 specific scholar but they are listening to numerous and taking the best parts/what they agree with most from them. Probably "Muslim influencers" online are more popular nowadays than any scholar to begin with, lol.

This is probably the main difference between Sunni and Shias (Twelvers) in practical terms.

Ironically Iranian regime policies within Iran has just lead to more Iranians leaving Islam and religion and have a counterproductive effect. But you know that already as an Iranian.

As for KSA-Iran people to people relations (there is much ignorance from both sides - I do not claim to be an expert on Iran either and as I am yet to visit I am even less of an authority - met many Iranians in KSA, GCC countries and even other Arab countries, West) and overall there are more similarities than the opposite but this goes for all people of the region, including the Arab/Middle Eastern Jews.

But the few Iranian influencers online who have visited KSA or interacted with locals seem to have a rather positive view:

Same way the other way around which frankly does not surprise me much.

I completely agree with your points.. there isnt a single one Id argue with to be honest.


Let me clarify something: Islam itself is a complete religion with a vast global following. Its up to each person to read the Quran and interpret it in their own way. The real issue begins when someone tries to force their personal interpretation onto others. In this regard KSA and other stable Arab states have made commendable progress and that deserves recognition and praise.


The problem in Iran isnt about Islam nor is it about people abandoning religion. Its about a state that uses religion as a pretext to justify whatever it wants..oppression, corruption, and control. Pre1979 Iran had a much more sincere and spiritual Muslim society, precisely because religion wasnt being exploited as a political weapon.


Even among anti-religion Iranians, the issue has never really been with Islam itself (the Sunnah). Their fight is with Shia ideology, especially the distorted, authoritarian version pushed by the IR regime. Many Iranians actually criticize the mullahs for being fake Muslims who hijacked Islam for propaganda and power.


That said, Im not pessimistic about the future. As you mentioned, our peoples have interacted for centuries and will continue to do so. What truly matters now is that we educate one another and treat each other with civility and respect. Its crucial. The same “classy” Europeans we see today were decapitating each other just a few centuries ago.

Once you possess the power of knowledge, everything else follows naturally.


Just wanted to clarify my thoughts about Islam in Iran among Iranians. I think we are now fully on the same page.

 

[mangekyo]

@mangekyo

You are living in your own alternative reality.

KSA and USA have been allies/on largely friendly terms before Israel even came into existence as a country.

Arabs, KSA included on 2 occasions (1948 and 1973), unlike Iranians and every other non-Arabs, actually fought actual large-scale wars with Israel.

You never fired even a single rocket at Israel for almost 50 years until 1-2 years ago, when Israel itself started bombing you freely. You replying to this has nothing to do with some imaginary claims of fighting for Palestinians or other Arabs as we have been hearing about (propaganda) for the past 46 years.

It was also KSA, not Iran or anybody else, that was behind the oil embargo of the 1970's which to this day was the most hostile economic action against the collective West and the action that hurt it the most.

1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

KSA is also the author of Arab Peace Initiative which is the most comprehensive peace proposal which is also supported by the entire Arab League, Hamas, Fatah and almost every single OIC member state.

Arab Peace Initiative - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Meanwhile from 1948 (Israel's creation) to 1979, Iran was the greatest Israeli ally in the region.

Even during the Mullah reign, Iran was happily receiving and accepting Israeli support (Iran-Contra affair) against Iraq.

Israeli support for Iran during the Iran–Iraq War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Same Iranian Mullah regime was happily aiding the US (which worked along with Israel which was the main regional country along with Iran that wanted the removal of Saddam Hussein and Taliban) to topple/invade Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan in 2001.

You have several Iranian high-ranking Mullahs and the likes of Ahmadinejad (President) openly claiming and bragging about it.

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Thank you for confirming what I am saying. All those ARAB groups (Houthis, PMU, Hezbollah) did not come into existence due to Iran (although aided and supported by Iran) but they are mostly organic movements, which I have always claimed.

You must live in some serious alternative reality if you believe that KSA (or any Arab nation state or Muslim nation state for that matter) has the ability, will etc. to act like the regional cop and solve all the domestic/local problems in each Arab country.

Would be amazing if there were such an Arab country out there that had the ability to do so but I am afraid that even the US cannot keep law and order in their neighborhood (Mexico, Central America, South America, Caribbean).

The problem is not Iranian support for those groups by itself. The problem is their hypocrisy and the entire fake "axis of resistance" which has nothing to do with fighting Israel or the US. It is about those militias consolidating their own rule, Iran destabilizing their host countries etc.

Iran gains influence in the region (which they otherwise could not do), those groups get a patron and keep their fiefdoms/groups intact. Both benefit from this. Not sure the host countries and people do. The answer is obviously a big no.

Otherwise why is Iran itself not accepting foreign-backed militias to operate within Iran itself, often at odds with official Iranian institutions? So far no Iranian has ever been able to answer this simple question which we all know the answer to.

Case in point Iranian/Hezbollah support for secular Ba'ath Arab Nationalist Al-Assad regime while both claiming to be Islamist forces.

So not only are those groups backward, operating only in failed and unstable countries, not interested in leaving power for the sake of the unity of their host countries, but they are often prioritizing Iranian regime policies which are contrary to the interests of their own people and nations.

In short the Iranian regime has not been a positive in this regard.

Personally I don't really care that much anymore, it does not impact KSA much or 90% of all 500 million Arabs, but if those Arab countries prefer being failed states and do not learn from their mistakes, I cannot do much and I will just wait until things naturally return to normal. The youth in those countries are not interested and are smarter than that.

And no, showing you a concrete example of the negative influence of Iranian-aligned Shia militias in Iraq for Iraq and ordinary Iraqis is very much on topic.

‘This Is Colonialism, Not Investment’: Iran-Aligned Bloc Stalls Iraq–Saudi Deal - The Media Line

Despite the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in 2023, after the […]

themedialine.org

Look, this is exactly what’s annoying about your replies. Every time someone lays out a simple point, you go off on long off topic tangents and throw in a dozen irrelevant Wikipedia links to look “objective.” My point was clear from the start and you’ve dodged it every time. If you are worried about “Iranian meddling,” then maybe you should ask your own government to support the same Arab causes that Iran supports. Because the only reason Iran gained influence in the first place is that the “Arab leadership” was too busy doing business with the zionists.

You even admit these groups are “mostly organic” Arab movements, so your own words destroy your claim that Iran is “destabilizing” the region. Iran didn’t "create" Hezbollah, the PMU, or the Houthis out of thin air. Those movements emerged in societies under siege or occupation. Iran just stepped into the space others abandoned. If Saudi had supported those people militarily, politically and economically, Iran’s influence would be zero.

You can keep quoting Wikipedia, but on the ground, it’s Iran-backed groups that are actually confronting Israel militarily. Whether you like them or not, that’s the reality. Even the Houthis, the same people your government has been bombing for almost a decade are taking action. That irony speaks for itself.

Saying Iran “never fired a rocket at Israel until recently” while completely ignoring why just exposes your agenda. Israel didn’t suddenly decide to strike Iran out of boredom. Those attacks were part of Israel’s long campaign to weaken any actor that challenges its occupation. So yes, Iran responded directly after being hit first, but the reason Israel hit Iran in the first place is exactly because of Iran’s role in championing the Palestinian and Arab cause, while Saudi policy enables the very system committing genocide. That’s the context you deliberately keep skipping.

I know you don't like it, but Iran is supporting and championing the Arab cause. We’ve paid a heavy price for it, sanctions, assassinations, sabotage, isolation, war, and we’re still paying it.

That said, I don’t want Iran to have anything to do with the Arab cause or with resistance groups. But I’m exposing why this situation exists in the first place. The problem is, you can’t seem to comprehend that, because acknowledging it would shatter the narrative you’re so desperate to protect.

 

[_Arabia_]

Look, this is exactly what’s annoying about your replies. Every time someone lays out a simple point, you go off on long off topic tangents and throw in a dozen irrelevant Wikipedia links to look “objective.” My point was clear from the start and you’ve dodged it every time. If you are worried about “Iranian meddling,” then maybe you should ask your own government to support the same Arab causes that Iran supports. Because the only reason Iran gained influence in the first place is that the “Arab leadership” was too busy doing business with the zionists.

You even admit these groups are “mostly organic” Arab movements, so your own words destroy your claim that Iran is “destabilizing” the region. Iran didn’t "create" Hezbollah, the PMU, or the Houthis out of thin air. Those movements emerged in societies under siege or occupation. Iran just stepped into the space others abandoned. If Saudi had supported those people militarily, politically and economically, Iran’s influence would be zero.

You can keep quoting Wikipedia, but on the ground, it’s Iran-backed groups that are actually confronting Israel militarily. Whether you like them or not, that’s the reality. Even the Houthis, the same people your government has been bombing for almost a decade are taking action. That irony speaks for itself.

Saying Iran “never fired a rocket at Israel until recently” while completely ignoring why just exposes your agenda. Israel didn’t suddenly decide to strike Iran out of boredom. Those attacks were part of Israel’s long campaign to weaken any actor that challenges its occupation. So yes, Iran responded directly after being hit first, but the reason Israel hit Iran in the first place is exactly because of Iran’s role in championing the Palestinian and Arab cause, while Saudi policy enables the very system committing genocide. That’s the context you deliberately keep skipping.

I know you don't like it, but Iran is supporting and championing the Arab cause. We’ve paid a heavy price for it, sanctions, assassinations, sabotage, isolation, war, and we’re still paying it.

That said, I don’t want Iran to have anything to do with the Arab cause or with resistance groups. But I’m exposing why this situation exists in the first place. The problem is, you can’t seem to comprehend that, because acknowledging it would shatter the narrative you’re so desperate to protect.

Covered most of your points earlier in this thread and many others. Prefer not to repeat myself but allow me to disagree with some of your points.

Anyway what is the "Arab cause" exactly? Palestine is a small part of this.

You are too obsessed about KSA, nowhere has "Saudi Arabian policy" enabled Israel anywhere. KSA has been championing the Palestinian cause since 1948 (unlike Iran) and to this day politically it was KSA and France that was behind major Western European countries (for the first time) recognizing Palestine (UK, France etc. itself). The most pro-Palestinian concrete change in the past 2 years.

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France among six more countries to formally recognise Palestinian statehood

France, Andorra, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco join diplomatic push as Israel unleashes fierce attacks on Gaza.

www.aljazeera.com

Due to mostly Saudi Arabian lobbying.

Anyway fine, let us assume your logic is correct.

What has "Iran championing" Palestine amounted to or given the Palestinians if not utter humiliation, defeat and the worst loss of live in the entire conflict?

If we go by your logic, the whole Iranian agenda has failed miserably. Hezbollah destroyed/South Lebanon, Gaza leveled to the ground etc. Some even say that 7th of October was coordinated with Iran in order to stop more Arab states normalizing with Israel and trying to find a diplomatic solution by engaging with Israel/Israelis for the first time in history directly and opening up more people to people relations in order (partially) also to help sway Israeli opinions in more pro-Arab directions. We don't really know what could/would have occurred long-term. Some pragmatics could easily say that it would be worth a try given that the alternatives (hostility, no ties at all) did not work or change status quo, rather the contrary, more settlements were being built each year.

The Houthi vs Yemen/KSA/Arab coalition war ended in 2020 by large. You were off by half (decade claim).

The backward Houthis are just opportunists, using the conflict for their own gains while achieving nothing (yet to kill more than 1 Israeli). If that is victory in your world, so be it. In return Israel has killed 100's of Yemenis.

Just cheap useless rhetoric that does not amount to anything. The military solution is not going to work against a nuclear armed Israel fully backed by the US/West/NATO. Even Russia supports it and China has excellent ties with it. This delusion will just continue to kill more Palestinians and people of the region.

I am happy that KSA is not engaging in this low IQ rhetoric/politics but tries to first unify Palestinian ranks (KSA brokered the Hamas/Fatah civil war), offer a concrete realistic peace proposal (Arab Peace Initiative) and is lobbying heavily for a Palestinian state which amounted to major Western European states officially recognizing a Palestinian state for the first time.

Anyway KSA/Arabs/Muslims/outsiders can only do so much, at the end of the day Palestinians and Israelis (in particular the Israelis) need to figure out a peaceful coexistence/just end to the conflict/solution and the most important outsider here is the US who holds the most sway over Israel.

BTW, some of your points would have more value if Iranian regime and Iran-aligned groups actually had amounted to something in regard to defeating Israel. Not the case which the entire world has already seen. Nor were you capable of preventing the genocide in Gaza (nobody was). My point is, the military solution has been tried (long before that) and has largely (not largely, failed completely) since 1948. Unlikely to change. Call me defeatist or whatever (don't really care) but I am pragmatic and focused on facts on the ground rather than wishful thinking or empty slogans.

And if it was so easy to solve this conflict, it would not have lasted so long and somebody would have solved it by now some way or another by forcing the hand of both, in particular Israel.

And no, personally I am not in favor of having any kind of relations with Israel (the state) but my opinion does not matter (yours neither) in this region and for the leaderships of this region. Nor do we know if "normalization"/genuine people to people interactions and trying the diplomatic solution (seriously) long-term will/would have any effects as that has never been tried before by the region collectively with outside support from relevant powers.

What I do know is that everyone in the region is tired of this conflict, including those involved directly (naturally) and that we want to see an end to this madness once and for all in one form or another that can realistically satisfy both parties because neither of them are going anywhere. The region has been hijacked long enough already by this nonsense, largely (99.99%) the fault of Israel/Jews. No sane person wants any wars or conflicts in the first place with anybody but wants to have peace, stability and development. I don't want for my sons and children to grow up in a region that Is permanently at war or in a region where the next war/conflict is just a question of time.

 

[hyperman]

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Zios seem to be plotting, alleging Hezbollah is receiving weapons shipments via Syria.

If they do attack Lebanon with a ground invasion, would Iran and Iraq help?

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Zios seem to be plotting, alleging Hezbollah is receiving weapons shipments via Syria.

If they do attack Lebanon with a ground invasion, would Iran and Iraq help?

did Hezbollah help Iran when Israel attacked Iran? did Turkey help Syria when Israel attacks and invades Syria?

the help is what we do already now, give them weapons and logistics and help them reorganise

 

[hyperman]

did Hezbollah help Iran when Israel attacked Iran? did Turkey help Syria when Israel attacks and invades Syria?

the help is what we do already now, give them weapons and logistics and help them reorganise

Hezbollah didn't need to help in that case, Iran wasn't going to fall after the first few days when things stabalized, and it wasn't isolated. Hezbollah is isolated, its a very different scenario.

It would be a mistake for the IRGC to not help, this is same foolish "strategic patience" that cost them these couple of years. They are picking off the fronts, one at a time, b/c the cowardice is preventing them from fighting back as a collective. After they wipe out Hezbollah, they will come for Iran eventually.