Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[hyperman]

insult Iran and Hezbollah

I haven't insulted anyone.

 

[Watandar]

Why? does Hezbollah not have capacity without Syria? If thats true, then it would make what the Hezbollah haters in Lebanon say correct, that Hezbollah is not independent and not capable of being independent and reliant on patronage from Iran or Syria to function.

Can Hezbollah not be effective without HTS backing?


Whats all this Shia Crescent stuff? lol, whats that have to do with Syria? Why does a majority Sunni state have to be involved in this? Iran's strategy shouldn't be reliant on trying to subjugate or demographically manipulate a Sunni Majority state. thats not a reasonable outlook to have. Alternatively someone could say hey maybe Safavids were the ones who "broke up" the Sunni Continuity that goes from Khorasan/Hind to Palestine or even further.

Hezbollah cannot fight a nation state like Israel without support. In late 2000's, the IRGC did start a policy of training their allies in weapons making and you see the greatest success of that with the Houthis, however there are limits to what a group or even a militia can build.

You are not aware of "Shia crescent" ? That was the term the Israel/US/GCC were using in the 2010s to link Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon. It meant Iran had rock solid allies in these countries and was seen as a major threat, most of all by the GCC. Its why West got so involved in the Syrian civil war in the first place.

The rest of your comments about Iran forcing "demographic changes" in Syria is the usual Wahabi/Salafi BS. In ther warped worldview, its ok for foreign Sunni fighters from Chechnya and every other nook and cranny of the world to settle in Syria after the fighting, but anybody else does same and that is "forcing demographic changes".

 

[hyperman]

Yes I know Iraqi PMU fired a few drones at the Golan and then quit. I call that tokenism. After all Iran did for them against ISIS, and still does for them, it was a very poor return on investment. Now it is reported same PMU is playing Iran against the US/Iraqi govt to see where it gets most benefits.

Yep, the PMUs are by far the most disappointing faction of the "resistance", Even the Houthis under siege never stopped firing, Hezbollah fought extensively, but the one faction that has more manpower capacity than any faction and a literal border with Iran for supplies, refuses to fight, only doing local corruption.

 

[Falcon29]

Ridiculous. That would be a war on Israel's terms when Hezbollah is only starting to recover from the last war.

Every war would be a war on Israel's terms because Hezbollah stakeholders are corrupt people. Money corrupts people. They weren't prepared for a round of fighting with Israel despite having not fought from 2006 to 2023. It's not 4D chess or anything. We have to put aside ego and pride. Hezbollah doesn't have a master plan or know what's it's doing or it knows best. It doesn't know best.

If they weren't ready to fight for their terms after 17 years ceasefire then they will never be ready.

 

[hyperman]

Hezbollah cannot fight a nation state like Israel without support. In late 2000's, the IRGC did start a policy of training their allies in weapons making and you see the greatest success of that with the Houthis, however there are limits to what a group or even a militia can build.

Of course they can, they have the sea, If the Houthis can do it, Hezbollah with far larger resources can do it. Besides they have had a corridor from Iran for 20+ years since Saddan fell, surely they made some extensive infrastructure and tech upgrades, to produce in Lebanon.

The rest of your comments about Iran forcing "demographic changes" in Syria is the usual Wahabi/Salafi BS.

Yes famous "Wahabi" publication called "the Guardian". lol, there is literal demographics data before the war and during the end, showing the demographics changes that happened in Syria with the expulsion of refugees, the overwhelming amount of whom were sunnis, as well as documentation of Assad/Iran moving Twelves in to Damascus and the border regions between Syria and Lebanon.

Iran repopulates Syria with Shia Muslims to help tighten regime's control

New communities are settling in areas where Sunnis have fled or been forced out as Tehran seeks an arc of control stretching from its borders to Israel

www.theguardian.com

edit: More "wahabi" sources

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

https://www.syriahr.com/en/275292/

edit2:

MORE Wahabi Sources

The institutionalization of demographic change in Syria

Mass displacement is not merely a consequence of the war, but rather a specific goal of the regime and its allies’ strategy to regain control of Syria.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

edit3:

Even MORE Wahabi sources

Religion as a Soft Power Tool: Iran’s Export of Twelver Shia Islam to Syria

As part of its efforts to consolidate an ‘axis of resistance’ across the Middle East, Iran has been working to settle populations in Syria who subscribe to the Twelver branch of Shia Islam.

www.rusi.org

 

[hyperman]

If they weren't ready to fight for their terms after 17 years ceasefire then they will never be ready.

exactly, dare I say more. They have had a corridor since Saddam fell, and even before that, since their inception they have had the backing of Assad. If in that time they weren't able to build capacity, then they likely never will for anything against Israel.

 

[Watandar]

Of course they can, they have the sea, If the Houthis can do it, Hezbollah with far larger resources can do it. Besides they have had a corridor from Iran for 20+ years since Saddan fell, surely they made some extensive infrastructure and tech upgrades, to produce in Lebanon.



Yes famous "Wahabi" publication called "the Guardian". lol, there is literal demographics data before the war and during the end, showing the demographics changes that happened in Syria with the expulsion of refugees, the overwhelming amount of whom were sunnis, as well as documentation of Assad/Iran moving Twelves in to Damascus and the border regions between Syria and Lebanon.

Iran repopulates Syria with Shia Muslims to help tighten regime's control

New communities are settling in areas where Sunnis have fled or been forced out as Tehran seeks an arc of control stretching from its borders to Israel

www.theguardian.com

edit: More "wahabi" sources

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

https://www.syriahr.com/en/275292/

Houthis are ruling Yemen, Hezbollah has never ruled Lebanon. Hezbollah also got into a direct war with Israel and had most of its facilities and ammunition destroyed. To expect that group to now resume fighting Israel without any outside support is non-feasible.

The articles you mention are Western propaganda about the "Shia crescent" via publications and NGOs. What actually happened is that some members of Fatimeyoun and Zainabiyoun militias who were recruited from Afghanistan/Pakistan were allowed to settle in Syria after the fighting ended. This was portrayed by Westerners as "forcing demographic changes". No such allegations are made about the Chechens or North Caucus fighters who did the same.

 

[hyperman]

Houthis are ruling Yemen, Hezbollah has never ruled Lebanon.

No, they are not, you are unfamiliar with the Dynamics of Yemen. Houthis are largely restricted to the Zaidi Areas of Yemen, just like Hezbollah is restricted to the largely Shia areas of Lebanon. They are only ruling their areas, which defacto Hezbollah also does in its areas. Arguably Hezbollah has more control as it has a presence in Beirut in Dahiya specfically.

most of its facilities and ammunition

Most of Hezbollah's facilities underground and in the mountains of lebanon are intact. So you are wrong again.

The articles you mention are Western propaganda about the "Shia crescent" via publications and NGOs. What actually happened is that some members of Fatimeyoun and Zainabiyoun militias who were recruited from Afghanistan/Pakistan were allowed to settle in Syria after the fighting ended. This was portrayed by Westerners as "forcing demographic changes". No such allegations are made about the Chechens or North Caucus fighters who did the same.

Again, it shows you didn't read the articles I linked. There is literal demographics data showing the amount of expelled and displaced Syrian and them being disproportionately sunni, It shows that the land they left behind was taken by the state under assad, confiscated and given to "more loyal people", both internally in Syria, as well as Iran moving people into those lands. The effect was enough so that, the demographics data was showing the trend that Sunnis were no longer a majority and only a plurality or at 50% depending on the different sources of information. This is from the pre war period where they were vastly higher.

The articles I linked also detail the culture of damascus changing, it even spoke of Twelver proselytization and Iran literally paying people to convert. Foreign Policy mag for example interviews several sunnis in the Dier Ez Zor area that had converted out of a need for money.

Iran Is Trying to Convert Syria to Shiism

Ten years after entering Syria’s civil war, Tehran is using religion to make its influence there permanent.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Watandar]

No, they are not, you are unfamiliar with the Dynamics of Yemen. Houthis are largely restricted to the Zaidi Areas of Yemen, just like Hezbollah is restricted to the largely Shia areas of Lebanon. They are only ruling their areas, which defacto Hezbollah also does in its areas. Arguably Hezbollah has more control as it has a presence in Beirut in Dahiya specfically.



Most of Hezbollah's facilities underground and in the mountains of lebanon are intact. So you are wrong again.



Again, it shows you didn't read the articles I linked. There is literal demographics data showing the amount of expelled and displaced Syrian and them being disproportionately sunni, It shows that the land they left behind was taken by the state under assad, confiscated and given to "more loyal people", both internally in Syria, as well as Iran moving people into those lands. The effect was enough so that, the demographics data was showing the trend that Sunnis were no longer a majority and only a plurality or at 50% depending on the different sources of information. This is from the pre war period where they were vastly higher.

The articles I linked also detail the culture of damascus changing, it even spoke of Twelver proselytization and Iran literally paying people to convert. Foreign Policy mag for example interviews several sunnis in the Dier Ez Zor area that had converted out of a need for money.

Iran Is Trying to Convert Syria to Shiism

Ten years after entering Syria’s civil war, Tehran is using religion to make its influence there permanent.

foreignpolicy.com

Foreign Policy magazine ?? That is the paper of the The Blob (foreign policy establishment) of the US. It is going to write articles supporting the Western policy of intervening in Syrian civil war and bringing a Western puppet to power there. I dont think you understand how Western media discreetly supports the foreign policy of its govts....and also how NGO's are utilized in pursuit of same foreign policy. Occasional dissenting articles are allowed to maintain image of a free press.

Regarding Yemen, the Houthis control its most important parts and rule over the majority population. Only the South which is out of their control and has Aden is significant. Eastern Yemen is empty and irrelevant. Houthis have also been the most successful in IRGC policy of enabling its allies to build its own weapons. That does not mean every other group can be just as successful.

hezbollah has never ruled Lebanon or even the areas where the Shia live. Its prominent of course but not a ruler. Hezbollah never had more than a certain share of seats in the Lebanese parliament and has to practice politics the same way as everybody else. You believe a few underground facilities in Bekaa or South Lebanon is enough to fight Israel but in reality, thats not the case.

 

[Watandar]

Hezbollah remains a potent political force, but its military and humanitarian arms were badly damaged in recent war with Israel.

Hezbollah holds firm in Lebanon’s municipal elections

Establishment parties, including Hezbollah, emerge as the biggest winners in the first municipal polls since 2016.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yep, the PMUs are by far the most disappointing faction of the "resistance", Even the Houthis under siege never stopped firing, Hezbollah fought extensively, but the one faction that has more manpower capacity than any faction and a literal border with Iran for supplies, refuses to fight, only doing local corruption.

even the most 'disappointing' faction of the Resistance is a million times less disappointing than Turkey

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes I know Iraqi PMU fired a few drones at the Golan and then quit. I call that tokenism. After all Iran did for them against ISIS, and still does for them, it was a very poor return on investment. Now it is reported same PMU is playing Iran against the US/Iraqi govt to see where it gets most benefits.

they fired a large number of drones for months, they were mostly intercepted given the distance

PMU does not have ballistic missiles and are part of the Iraqi state which is heavily controlled by the USA

 

[Persian Gulf]

Every war would be a war on Israel's terms because Hezbollah stakeholders are corrupt people. Money corrupts people. They weren't prepared for a round of fighting with Israel despite having not fought from 2006 to 2023. It's not 4D chess or anything. We have to put aside ego and pride. Hezbollah doesn't have a master plan or know what's it's doing or it knows best. It doesn't know best.

If they weren't ready to fight for their terms after 17 years ceasefire then they will never be ready.

they were prepared for 2023 but Israel was better prepared since it is a state with the full and unconditional backing of a world superpower

you are pathetic for insulting them. money corrupted Hamas and led them to sacrifice 2 million Gazan Arabs, focus on that.

 

[hyperman]

Foreign Policy magazine ?? That is the paper of the The Blob (foreign policy establishment) of the US. It is going to write articles supporting the Western policy of intervening in Syrian civil war and bringing a Western puppet to power there. I dont think you understand how Western media discreetly supports the foreign policy of its govts....and also how NGO's are utilized in pursuit of same foreign policy. Occasional dissenting articles are allowed to maintain image of a free press.

I linked you several sources, you decided to focus on Foreing Policy, btw, They didn't randomly invent the people they interviewed, there are also corroborating reports in the other articles like with the SOHR.

Regarding Yemen, the Houthis control its most important parts and rule over the majority population. Only the South which is out of their control and has Aden is significant. Eastern Yemen is empty and irrelevant. Houthis have also been the most successful in IRGC policy of enabling its allies to build its own weapons. That does not mean every other group can be just as successful.

They actually don't control the majority areas, if you look at the control of areas, you will see they are largely restricted to the Zaidi majority areas and zaidis are not the majority of Yemen, the other areas are held by other factions.

hezbollah has never ruled Lebanon or even the areas where the Shia live. Its prominent of course but not a ruler. Hezbollah never had more than a certain share of seats in the Lebanese parliament and has to practice politics the same way as everybody else. You believe a few underground facilities in Bekaa or South Lebanon is enough to fight Israel but in reality, thats not the case.

Hezbollah runs the areas it controls, the govt in beirut doesn't have defacto power there. Hezbollah runs things from the civil society stuff all the way to the local police and the militia itself.

They don't have "a few facilities" they have similar tunnels and networks to Hamas. underground launch facilities and a whole lot more. Again, there is a reason why Israel despite doing decapitation strikes failed to advance into Lebanon significantly, b/c the rank and file structure is quite entrenched. Israel if the fighting restarted would not be able to make significant headway into Lebanon, atleast outside of the areas Hezbollah voluntarily abandoned.

 

[hyperman]

even the most 'disappointing' faction of the Resistance is a million times less disappointing than Turkey

Is Turkey saying they will wipe out Israel and doing marches with Soldiers with Missiles taking about sending them to tel aviv?

They talk a big game, but so far only the Houthis delivered on promises. Hezbollah I will give partial credit for under Nasrallah, but then Naim Qasim abandoned Nasrallah's promise.