the vicious kind
Registered Member
Okay, reluctantly, I am going to have to explain this to you like a kindergarten teacher.
Pakistan established the Kahuta enrichment programme in 1976. By the time the reported Israeli Indian strike plans were being discussed around 1983 and 1984, the enrichement programme had already existed for eight years.. Pakistan had rapidly approached the nuclear threshold. The U.S. intelligence was already assessing during this period that Pakistan was moving toward the ability to produce a nuclear explosive device in weeks. Thats exacltly what is meant by "Nuclear Threshold" and if you think that didnt figure in Israeli calculas than your just plain dumb.
Pakistan had also begun receiving its first Peace Gate F 16s in 1983. Those aircraft subsequently became associated with Pakistan’s nuclear delivery mission, alongside the Mirage III and Mirage V. So the idea that Israel and India were looking at some completely defenceless, strategically irrelevant Pakistan is nonsense. The possibility of retaliation and uncontrolled escalation was already part of the calculation.
My comments about mountains were made specifically in response to your claim that Israel could somehow decapitate Pakistan’s strategic capability as easily as it attacked Iran.I am not going to start discussing sensitive locations on an internet forum simply because you demand evidence that obviously would not be public in the first place.
And this mythology surrounding an almost supernatural Israeli Air Force vs TuAF, RSAF and PAF.. needs some perspective. Yes Israel possesses advantages in areas such as its F 35Is. But outside its stealth fleet, a large part of the IAF still consists of older F 15 and F 16 derivatives. Many of these aircraft lack AESA radars, while several of the older F 16 Netz and even some Barak variants are dated by modern standards.
Türkiye, meanwhile, operates one of the largest F 16 fleets in the world (larger than israels) , is moving toward acquiring F 35s again, is augmenting its force with Eurofighters and is simultaneously developing KAAN. The 4 turkish E-7 AWACS are much larger and more modern than the Israeli G550s of which israel only has 2.
Saudi Arabia already fields a highly capable combat fleet based around the F 15SA and F 15S, with the F 15SA in particular being one of the most advanced Eagle variants in service, alongside 72 Eurofighter Typhoons.
Pakistan operates J 10Cs, JF 17 Block IIIs, F 16s and a substantial AEW&C fleet while pursuing next generation fighter options, including the J 35. Personally, I find the J 35 a much cleaner and more slender design than the rather bulky F 35, known as “Fat Amy” in U.S. defence circles.
You keep mentioning Israeli ALBMs like LORA as if they are some sort of magic bullet. Is that because of the Qatar attack? Do you realize it missed the building and Israel still failed to kill the Hamas negotiators it was targeting?
Technically, something like LORA is also a big, juicy target for systems such as Pakistan’s HQ 9, Saudi Patriot batteries or Türkiye’s SİPER air defence network. Heck, even Israeli SPICE 2000 and SOM type precision weapons have failed to achieve their intended effects before, including during the 2019 Balakot strike when India used Mirage 2000s against Pakistan. You can go through a plethora of videos of failed Israeli CMs in Iran.
And if we are going to compare stand off strike inventories, Saudi Arabia literally possesses around 450 Storm Shadows and has ordered 650 SLAM ERs. Pakistan possesses hundreds of Taimoor and Ra’ad I and II cruise missiles, while Türkiye has its own extensive inventory of air launched cruise missiles.
So no, Israeli ALBMs are not some magical, unstoppable weapon that suddenly makes everyone else’s offensive and defensive capabilities irrelevant.
Israel has some qualitative advantages, but pretending that every aircraft in its inventory is somehow generations ahead of everything fielded by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan is simply kool aid rather than serious force comparison.
And against Pakistan there is one additional variable that simply did not exist against Iran: an established nuclear arsenal. You can call nuclear deterrence “nonsense” as many times as you like. Israeli planners would not have that luxury. You keep denying that , but that doesnt change the equation
Sindoor did not “break” nuclear deterrence. India carried out limited strikes, Pakistan retaliated conventionally, both sides carefully controlled escalation, and the conflict stopped well short of existential war. That is deterrence operating, not disappearing.
