Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

[Pingle]

Well with the opening of the canal, China can bring reinforcement into Cambodia which is just across the straits of Malacca. Men, war materials, equipment, etc. Remember China has a naval base in Siem Reap with their radar and EW facilities. And a big airport in Sihanoukville that is civilian but in the war they can be used to base Chinese fighters and jets to hammer any attempt to choke off the straits of Malacca. Use your logic before posting

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/07/asia/cambodia-ream-naval-base-chinese-warships-us-analysis/index.html

Heightened concerns​

The unprecedented presence of Chinese navy ships at the Ream Naval Base, which occupies a strategic position near the southern tip of Cambodia close to the South China Sea, is likely to deepen long-standing concerns among US officials that China is seeking a military outpost in the Gulf of Thailand.

Such concerns were already heightened in June last year, when Chinese and Cambodian officials presided together over a ground-breaking ceremony for a project to renovate the port with grant aid from China.

Cambodian officials have repeatedly denied the facility would be used by China as a naval base, insisting the project is in line with Cambodia’s constitution, which bars foreign military bases on its territory. Chinese officials, meanwhile, have described the base as an “aid project” to strengthen Cambodia’s navy and called assertions otherwise “hype” with “ulterior motives.”

For the US, the Chinese-funded expansion at Ream is particularly troubling as it involved the demolishing of a US-funded facility there — a development that served as something of an analogy for Cambodia’s closer ties with Beijing and growing distance from Washington, according to Bradford at the Yokosuka Council.

Russia fired and hammered Ukraine with lacs of missiles and bombs till date.... still Ukraine is not only fighting but managed to capture few 1000s kms area of Russia..... do you think USA and allies will sit idle while you hammer them? War is never one sided man.... Cambodia too won't allow you use their land in case of full scale war as for no fault of them they will be bombed too....

 

[Hendarto]

The one who will block the strait of Malacca is either the Americans or Indians. But your movement will be relayed the moment Chinese surface group entered the mouth of the Malacca strait.

The idea of some people here that China could simply come surprise the Americans and 'control' the strait is ridiculous, I sincerely hope they buy a map, even more ridiculous is the idea that Japan and SG is 'all in China camps' when it's clear that is not the case.

Also from Cambodia, you actually needed to pass through Thailand, which will put Bangkok in a hard situation.

If Singapore relays the information She will be party to the war and face the consequence. China can make an offer that Thailand cannot refuse either "free passage " or your country will be invaded. Knowing Thailand she will relent.She did that during WWII allowing Japanese troop movement

 

[Hendarto]

Russia fired and hammered Ukraine with lacs of missiles and bombs till date.... still Ukraine is not only fighting but managed to capture few 1000s kms area of Russia..... do you think USA and allies will sit idle while you hammer them? War is never one sided man.... Cambodia too won't allow you use their land in case of full scale war as for no fault of them they will be bombed too....

And you think American bases will be spared of destruction. Ever heard of the tyranny of distance? China will be fighting in her backyard but the US will have to transport from the Pacific once their bases in Japan and Korea are gone. Cambodia is quasi Chinese ally and she just can't refuse.

Ukraine is a relatively large country and they have a land border with NATO countries and easily resupply. Russia does not have the intention to widen the war It is a special military operation with only 300000 strong army. But blocking strait of Malacca is WW III.

China is building infrastructure of rail and road to straits of melacca as we speak halfway there. The Laos portion is done Thailand should be halfway through in couple of years.

China is not as vulnerable as you think watch that video it explains everything. China is self-sufficient in grain, mineral and most of the oil is used for transportation and chemicals. But at the rate of transport electrification in a couple of years, that vulnerability is vaporized too.

I doubt that Malaysia or Spore will get involved in the blockade. They can't choose their neighbor and they can't risk the wrath of China

 

[Raiden]

If Singapore relays the information She will be party to the war and face the consequence. China can make an offer that Thailand cannot refuse either "free passage " or your country will be invaded. Knowing Thailand she will relent.She did that during WWII allowing Japanese troop movement

Not that easy, China would have to have an undeniable proof that Singapore, Malaysia or Indonesia that it's actively relayed the information to the US that is to the detriment of China.

During WW2 the German Battleship Bismarck was spotted by Swedish coastal defense ship while transiting the Baltics. It was relayed to the Swedish military HQ, which then relayed the information through the Swedish embassy to the Brits.

And then there's the fact that for going kinetic against those countries, as a retaliation for a mere information is basically playing to the US interests, the US actually wants these countries to fight and die so that the US could contain China. If these countries are attacked the US will be operating from their lands. So instead having to worry about a Taiwan sized military operation, the Chinese military planner would now add another concern that the American military machine will sortie from the territory of Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia which combined is larger and more vast than Europe. That's a losing move.

Thailand will likely not relent, because between forced to let China a free passage while having the Americans and Indians as the 'second option' is simply not an option, on the contrary, seeing that Cambodia is now a staging ground for a Chinese land invasion, will likely compel the Vietnamese and Thailand to neutralize Cambodia first. Without Cambodia there's a not that many route to invade continental SE Asia. That is if China actually have that many spare soldier to send.

+ that threats to Thailand basically burn the only 'friendly' major ASEAN nation to China, which again the US will happily agitate.

 

[Pingle]

And you think American bases will be spared of destruction. Ever heard of the tyranny of distance? China will be fighting in her backyard but the US will have to transport from the Pacific once their bases in Japan and Korea are gone. Cambodia is quasi Chinese ally and she just can't refuse.

Ukraine is a relatively large country and they have a land border with NATO countries and easily resupply. Russia does not have the intention to widen the war It is a special military operation with only 300000 strong army.

Firstly America is very very settled with huge bases all over Pacific and along with its allies like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Taiwan etc.... now they have quad too with India in... and they are settled here since 60s and hence this is no more a distant region for USA as everything from supply chain, logistics, manufacturing of weapons into allied countries is in place.... so don't think that distance is any disadvantage to USA...

What do you mean by once bases in south Korea and Japan are gone?? Is it a child's play you underestimate these counting to this level?? They are armed to teeth with one of the best American weapons, training to deal with you.... how if I say once bases in China are gone or once Chinese navy is sunk??

Ukraine is large country but still Russia shares land with it and that land is not as difficult as Himalayan border with India and China and still Russia is struggling..... here you will be fighting war over sea and air that too directly against a super power possibly.... think over it.....

Cambodia, Thailand you will threat so they provide you access.... how many powers you want to pick a fight with when you already facing USA and allies??

 

[Hendarto]

Not that easy, China would have to have an undeniable proof that Singapore, Malaysia or Indonesia that it's actively relayed the information to the US that is to the detriment of China.

During WW2 the German Battleship Bismarck was spotted by Swedish coastal defense ship while transiting the Baltics. It was relayed to the Swedish military HQ, which then relayed the information through the Swedish embassy to the Brits.

And then there's the fact that for going kinetic against those countries, as a retaliation for a mere information is basically playing to the US interests, the US actually wants these countries to fight and die so that the US could contain China. If these countries are attacked the US will be operating from their lands. So instead having to worry about a Taiwan sized military operation, the Chinese military planner would now add another concern that the American military machine will sortie from the territory of Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia which combined is larger and more vast than Europe. That's a losing move.

Thailand will likely not relent, because between forced to let China a free passage while having the Americans and Indians as the 'second option' is simply not an option, on the contrary, seeing that Cambodia is now a staging ground for a Chinese land invasion, will likely compel the Vietnamese and Thailand to neutralize Cambodia first. Without Cambodia there's a not that many route to invade continental SE Asia. That is if China actually have that many spare soldier to send.

+ that threats to Thailand basically burn the only 'friendly' major ASEAN nation to China, which again the US will happily agitate.

Did you ever read history? During the Vietnam War. US dropped more bombs in Laos than all the bombs in WW II and yet she didn't relent and allowed Vietminh to use their territory to resupply the south.

You make it as if Thailand and Vietnam are 10 feet tall They are minnows when it comes to military. And they all have a border with China. The present Vietnam government is China-friendly and they will forever have a border with China and can't risk antagonizing China. China is a steadfast Cambodia ally any attack will incur Chinese retaliation. They will stay or of any conflict!

Did you ever read history China attacked Vietnam just because of it and Vietnam finally sued for peace in 1989 and withdrew from Cambodia. I don't think they want a repeat of history.

All those Southeast Asian countries are basket cases Read WWII history the Japanese conquered them in no Time . China has overwhelming material superiority when it comes to men, weapons, etc. It is 2 million standing army soon with the largest navy and airforce and try to fight them good luck!

 

[Hendarto]

Firstly America is very very settled with huge bases all over Pacific and along with its allies like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Taiwan etc.... now they have quad too with India in... and they are settled here since 60s and hence this is no more a distant region for USA as everything from supply chain, logistics, manufacturing of weapons into allied countries is in place.... so don't think that distance is any disadvantage to USA...

What do you mean by once bases in south Korea and Japan are gone?? Is it a child's play you underestimate these counting to this level?? They are armed to teeth with one of the best American weapons, training to deal with you.... how if I say once bases in China are gone or once Chinese navy is sunk??

Ukraine is large country but still Russia shares land with it and that land is not as difficult as Himalayan border with India and China and still Russia is struggling..... here you will be fighting war over sea and air that too directly against a super power possibly.... think over it.....

Cambodia, Thailand you will threat so they provide you access.... how many powers you want to pick a fight with when you already facing USA and allies??

Professionals talk about logistics while amateurs talk about equipment and strategy. Watch the Ukro-Russo war, the West threw everything they got and yet they can't win in Ukraine war. the Russians are gaining with every day. Because Russia has robust industry and technology. Think of China as Russia on steroids China can manufacture Thousands of missiles every day with automated factories while The west will run out of missiles within 2 weeks according to the simulation. Talking about simulation the Pentagon did that and China won every possible scenario

 

[Parmanu]

Professionals talk about logistics while amateurs talk about equipment and strategy. Watch the Ukro-Russo war, the West threw everything they got and yet they can't win in Ukraine war. the Russians are gaining with every day. Because Russia has robust industry and technology. Think of China as Russia on steroids China can manufacture Thousands of missiles every day with automated factories while The west will run out of missiles within 2 weeks according to the simulation. Talking about simulation the Pentagon did that and China won every possible scenario

you mean, in those scenarios, China won in defending itself from US ?

how about a scenario of US defending it's homeland from Chinese forces ?

Will they still win ?

 

[DDG-80]

Firstly America is very very settled with huge bases all over Pacific and along with its allies like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Taiwan etc.... now they have quad too with India in... and they are settled here since 60s and hence this is no more a distant region for USA as everything from supply chain, logistics, manufacturing of weapons into allied countries is in place.... so don't think that distance is any disadvantage to USA...

What do you mean by once bases in south Korea and Japan are gone?? Is it a child's play you underestimate these counting to this level?? They are armed to teeth with one of the best American weapons, training to deal with you.... how if I say once bases in China are gone or once Chinese navy is sunk??

Ukraine is large country but still Russia shares land with it and that land is not as difficult as Himalayan border with India and China and still Russia is struggling..... here you will be fighting war over sea and air that too directly against a super power possibly.... think over it.....

Cambodia, Thailand you will threat so they provide you access.... how many powers you want to pick a fight with when you already facing USA and allies??

China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.

Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait.

Making Sense of Xi’s Claim That the US Is ‘Goading’ China to Invade Taiwan

Xi Jinping’s statement reflects long established and now widely held Chinese elite perceptions of U.S. motives in the “Taiwan question.”

thediplomat.com

 

[Raiden]

Did you ever read history? During the Vietnam War. US dropped more bombs in Laos than all the bombs in WW II and yet she didn't relent and allowed Vietminh to use their territory to resupply the south.

So your argument is because the US drops bombs in Laos (a weak country barely able to hold its periphery against a guerilla force of communists) will automagically apply to Thailand? An industrialized country which doesn't have an insurgency problem and its army is quite capable for its size ?

And the Thais will just let you in and in turn getting blasted by the US? the same way Bangkok was once blasted by the US.

Mind to tell you that Bangkok is the only 'friendlies' of China among the major state of ASEAN. For basically a gamble (which will likely get rejected), China risks a Thailand that is suddenly hostile to Beijing and in turn would even seeks US or Indian military protection.

You make it as if Thailand and Vietnam are 10 feet tall They are minnows when it comes to military. And they all have a border with China. The present Vietnam government is China-friendly and they will forever have a border with China and can't risk antagonizing China. China is a steadfast Cambodia ally any attack will incur Chinese retaliation. They will stay or of any conflict!

Thailand doesn't have a border with China.

The last time a major Asian power uses their land under threat is the Japanese, and back then what is today Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam was known as Indo-China, ruled by the Vichy, which are allies to the Nazis, that allowed Japan to use the Vichy Indo China territory to demand Bangkok to let it move.

Today, if the Chinese would want to secure Thailand (a country of 71 million) they would have to make sure that Cambodia allows them to basically become the US military equivalent of Singapore, and this will attract worry from not only Thailand, but Vietnam a country of 100 million next door. The last time the Vietnamese are anxious about a China friendly Cambodia, they invaded it

Cambodian–Vietnamese War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Did you ever read history China attacked Vietnam just because of it and Vietnam finally sued for peace in 1989 and withdrew from Cambodia. I don't think they want a repeat of history.

See link above, they occupy the country until the 90s. They will do it again, this time with Thailand, and if the Chinese do something about it, the Americans and the Indians is all to happy to 'widen' the front on which could potentially divert China's focus and resources away from Taiwan.

All those Southeast Asian countries are basket cases Read WWII history the Japanese conquered them in no Time . China has overwhelming material superiority when it comes to men, weapons, etc. It is 2 million standing army soon with the largest navy and airforce and try to fight them good luck!

Certainly is not the same, when the Japanese conquered SE Asia, it is nothing in terms of populations, mostly rural and unindustrialized. Nowadays if you want to neutralize lets say Indonesia, you have to fight your way and actually PHYSICALLY occupy their cities and prevent the use of their lands to hostile forces.

The fact that Chinese Ultranationalists simply came up with words like:

• I will invade Thailand
• I will invade Singapore
• I will invade India
• I will invade Indonesia
• I will invade Malaysia

Shows just how detached they are from reality. the combined population of these countries DWARFED China. Especially if you count in the fact that while China is big, they couldn't move all of those population by ships in one go. So not only China is facing sophisticated Western army, now another concern came along, our population is dwarfed the same way the German population was dwarfed by the Brits, French and Russians in WW1.

If ALL Chinese transport ships are used for the invasion of of SE Asia, once they landed, they will still be outnumbered by the local military in size. Because ships have finite number of the men they could carry and even more finite if you factor the fact that these men will need food, drink, ammo, and those things will come with them, further decreasing the amount of space for the men .

Unlike the Russo-Ukrainian war, you actually have to use ship to land here, and once you land, bet your entire yearly pay, that those ships that is allocated to supply these men once they landed will be targeted heavily. Once you get in, there's no guarantee that your ammo will be replenished tomorrow.

Everyday your troops stayed, the lesser ammo they have, the more the will fire sparely.

If these situation happened, whomever in charge of China's military planning will be given a medal by the US for making the US containment easier

 

[Raiden]

Am not even a fan of the West but the Chinese ultranationalists are a sight on its own.

My suggestion to you is. Book a flight from Medan, Indoensia to Malacca or from Pekanbaru, Indonesia to Kuala Lumpur. You'll understand just how vulnerable you are inside that strait.

Basically you could not do a Japanese Kido Butai surprise on Pearl Harbor in such a confined waters.

Forget about surprising the US or even control it, the moment you enter the mouth of the strait the Americans will be ready at the other end of the strait.

 

[Hendarto]

So your argument is because the US drops bombs in Laos (a weak country barely able to hold its periphery against a guerilla force of communists) will automagically apply to Thailand? An industrialized country which doesn't have an insurgency problem and its army is quite capable for its size ?

And the Thais will just let you in and in turn getting blasted by the US? the same way Bangkok was once blasted by the US.

Mind to tell you that Bangkok is the only 'friendlies' of China among the major state of ASEAN. For basically a gamble (which will likely get rejected), China risks a Thailand that is suddenly hostile to Beijing and in turn would even seeks US or Indian military protection.



Thailand doesn't have a border with China.

The last time a major Asian power uses their land under threat is the Japanese, and back then what is today Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam was known as Indo-China, ruled by the Vichy, which are allies to the Nazis, that allowed Japan to use the Vichy Indo China territory to demand Bangkok to let it move.

Today, if the Chinese would want to secure Thailand (a country of 71 million) they would have to make sure that Cambodia allows them to basically become the US military equivalent of Singapore, and this will attract worry from not only Thailand, but Vietnam a country of 100 million next door. The last time the Vietnamese are anxious about a China friendly Cambodia, they invaded it

Cambodian–Vietnamese War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

See link above, they occupy the country until the 90s. They will do it again, this time with Thailand, and if the Chinese do something about it, the Americans and the Indians is all to happy to 'widen' the front on which could potentially divert China's focus and resources away from Taiwan.




Certainly is not the same, when the Japanese conquered SE Asia, it is nothing in terms of populations, mostly rural and unindustrialized. Nowadays if you want to neutralize lets say Indonesia, you have to fight your way and actually PHYSICALLY occupy their cities and prevent the use of their lands to hostile forces.

The fact that Chinese Ultranationalists simply came up with words like:

• I will invade Thailand
• I will invade Singapore
• I will invade India
• I will invade Indonesia
• I will invade Malaysia

Shows just how detached they are from reality. the combined population of these countries DWARFED China. Especially if you count in the fact that while China is big, they couldn't move all of those population by ships in one go. So not only China is facing sophisticated Western army, now another concern came along, our population is dwarfed the same way the German population was dwarfed by the Brits, French and Russians in WW1.

If ALL Chinese transport ships are used for the invasion of of SE Asia, once they landed, they will still be outnumbered by the local military in size. Because ships have finite number of the men they could carry and even more finite if you factor the fact that these men will need food, drink, ammo, and those things will come with them, further decreasing the amount of space for the men .

Unlike the Russo-Ukrainian war, you actually have to use ship to land here, and once you land, bet your entire yearly pay, that those ships that is allocated to supply these men once they landed will be targeted heavily. Once you get in, there's no guarantee that your ammo will be replenished tomorrow.

Everyday your troops stayed, the lesser ammo they have, the more the will fire sparely.

If these situation happened, whomever in charge of China's military planning will be given a medal by the US for making the US containment easier

Nope China can use the land route to invade South East Asia if the need arise and there is no power in the world that can stop them So as rational people know where their interest is. If Minow Spore wants to play with the big guy they will get burned badly!

Remember the history of Chinese expansion always been southward and the arrival of the west temporarily halted the course of history

 

[Raiden]

Nope China can use the land route to invade South East Asia if the need arise and there is no power in the world that can stop them So as rational people know where is their interest. If Minow Spore wants to play with the big guy they will get burned badly!

This is a very simple argument, I could come with the same argument.

A combined Indian-American expeditionary forces could use those land under the threat of war an no once could stop them.

+ S'pore is not even the main character in this hypothetical war. they get burned, yes. Your army get stretched and prolly lose the chance to occupy Taiwan.

If I'm the Americans that's a good trade.

 

[Hendarto]

This is a very simple argument, I could come with the same argument.

A combined Indian-American expeditionary forces could use those land under the threat of war an no once could stop them.

+ S'pore is not even the main character in this hypothetical war. they get burned, yes. Your army get stretched and prolly lose the chance to occupy Taiwan.

If I'm the Americans that's a good trade.

Give it a try blockade Straits of Melacca see what is coming!

India ? don't make me laugh. US is overstretch right now

 

[Raiden]

Give it a try blockade Straits of Melacca see what is coming!

Sometimes, thinking about it, your Chinese compatriot should thank god that YOU are not in charge of the political and military affairs of the PRC and the PLA.

Because if you are one, there's a very high risks that your country is running towards disaster.