Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

[Hendarto]

Sometimes, thinking about it, your Chinese compatriot should thank god that YOU are not in charge of the political and military affairs of the PRC and the PLA.

Because if you are one, there's a very high risks that your country is running towards disaster.

China never invades any country and has not get involved in a war for the last 40 years. Who does? and always invade other countries on a slightest pretense. But you Singaporeans are drinking their cool aid and think you are honorary West pathetic completely forgotten their roots . I lived in Singapore in the past can't stand it

 

[Raiden]

China never invades any country and has not get involved in a war for the last 40 years. Who does? and always invade other countries on a slightest pretense. But you Singaporeans are drinking their cool aid and think you are honorary West pathetic completely forgotten their roots . I lived in Singapore in the past can't stand it

I'm not even Singaporean...

 

[Hendarto]

I'm not even Singaporean...

Indian? or White No wonder

 

[Raiden]

Just to give an idea how hard it is to slip undetected through Malacca strait



Singapore ? No need more explanation, an entire nation's air force and navy is based there. Singapore is US main ally in SE Asia, USN ships usually refuels in SG.

Tanjung Pinang is Indonesian Navy main air base for Western Indonesia with CN-235 MPA and NC-212 MPA

Pekanbaru is Indonesian air force fighter base with currently 2 sqn (F-16/Hawk) soon to be replaced with 2 sqn of Rafale F4. if situation needs, F-16s could be forward deployed to Medan's Soewondo AB or Aceh's Iskandar Muda AB

Kelantan is home to RMAF Gong Kedak homebase of the Su-30MKM

GeorgeTown, Penang is home to Butterworth AB homebase of RMAF F-18 and also co-run with the Australia's RAAF, because Malaysia (Australia and Singapore) is FPDA and Butterworth happens to be HQ of FPDA. There's a possibility if tensions arise RAAF F-35 and F/A-18, E/A-18 will be stationed there or their E-7s

Even if these respective fighters fly in their nation's respective airspace, the wake of such a large PLAN grouping will be detected from afar, if not by the MK1 eyeball than using sophisticated long range FLIR that all air force in the region are equipped with (Thales Damocles, Sniper pod etc)

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From top to bottom a PLAN threat assessment would be :

1. Singapore
2. Malaysia
3. Indonesia

• Singapore is as earlier mentioned, a staunch ally of the US,
• Malaysia, even though having differences is part of the commonwealths FPDA,
• Indonesia will simply report the presence of ships of countries crossing the Malacca strait which I bet will find their way to the INDOPACOM by official or un-official means.

IIMS, Indonesian integrated maritime surveillance system dotted the strait, am sure Malaysia has their own as well.

This is what a China Research Ship Yang Hao 2 ship looks like from one of the surveillance system in Sunda strait, similar systems are installed across the Sumatra coast.

And once the PLAN exits the strait, the Indians are waiting.

I simply don't see how the PLAN is sortieing out of the Malacca strait like this. The Japanese Kido Butai only attacks Pearl Harbor using the vast Pacific ocean as cover and using unused sea lanes.

The Malacca strait at its closest distance is less than 40 km across.

This is not to say that China will automatically lose the war, but some comments are so delusional here they need a reality slap.

 

[Hendarto]

It is not China who is getting hurt in embargo It is most likely those countries that you mention. Spore staunch ally not sure about that. Spores are 70% Chinese blood is thicker than water. Spore economy depends on free flow of ships imagine just one rocket hitting a ship Insurance rate will skyrocket! Malaysia will sit out any conflict less they get invaded.

Indonesia with 90% Muslim there is no love for the West after the Gaza massacre

Those countries will scream and yell if the strait is blocked.

The only staunch ally are the Japanese and Australian even the Korean will have to think twice to antagonize China since China can lashes back by supporting Noko

 

[Pingle]

Professionals talk about logistics while amateurs talk about equipment and strategy. Watch the Ukro-Russo war, the West threw everything they got and yet they can't win in Ukraine war. the Russians are gaining with every day. Because Russia has robust industry and technology. Think of China as Russia on steroids China can manufacture Thousands of missiles every day with automated factories while The west will run out of missiles within 2 weeks according to the simulation. Talking about simulation the Pentagon did that and China won every possible scenario

You are only thinking one sided scenario where China will be hitting American bases at will, bases in south Korea and Japan will be gone and China all peacefully keep churning out missiles with no attacks on her.....

 

[Hendarto]

You are only thinking one sided scenario where China will be hitting American bases at will, bases in south Korea and Japan will be gone and China all peacefully keep churning out missiles with no attacks on her.....

Nope but China has the densest IAD in the world and Ukraine war proved that IAD coupled with EW can protect countries. BY 2030 China will have the largest air force in the world counting 2100 modern fighters as she churned out 250 fighters per year. China's air force is spread out widely one brigade one airport and heavily guarded and reinforced. US bases are cluster and can be counted by hand

 

[Hendarto]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1822254170105086036

 

[lightning f57]

Malacca strait is a double edged sword, block that and it affects all south asian nation economies. When was the last time that happened?

China relies on oil imports they can use Gwadar in times of any tensions.

Also if this is a conflict due to Taiwan or south china sea border disputes you wont get all south asian nations banding together to go to war. Also India will highly unlikey get involved dispite being in the quad or whatever. Only time such thing could happen if there was all out war with China, not over some martime dispute of a third, fourth country.

 

[FuturePAF]

Not only the Malacca Dilemma (which is partially dealt with a PLAN base in Cambodia), but the Indian bastion strategy in the Bay of Bengal, China will NEED a sub and frigate base in Myanmar. Couple this with instability in Myanmar and the need to encircle and contain India on all land borders, China needs to make a big move to convince Myanmar to side with China in a comprehensive and strategic manner (I.e. large economic projects that assuage both the formal government and various rebel factions).

Even still, the Myanmar option is still an option, under the nose of Indian and the rest of Quad forces. Another option to supplement, not instead of, is the rail route directly between Pakistan and China. Oil and LNG can be transported via rail car and goods can also be transported the same way, but this time all the way to Gwadar (via Karachi along the coast via a new rail line), with considerable initial investment, but giving a comprehensive secure corridor once it’s built.

Considering economies of scale, even if Pakistan can’t pay for its side of the railway, having the route open for Chinese cargo, should be seen as an insurance policy for China, as well as a way to get to and from the Middle East/African market quicker than any competitors, over shipping by sea. China could also re-export goods and services between Russia/Central Asia and the Middle East/Africa via this route, capturing a new market (blue ocean strategy) for China, such as grain exports, not done now via East Asian shipping. Grain ships could be going from Gwadar, skipping the Suez Canal and Middle East politics. China could also use this route as a trans-shipment route for goods that may not be globally exported directly to Russia.

For Pakistan, having a strategically important trade route for China run through Gilgit-Baltistan will further tie in China into ensuring GB is safeguarded form Indian designs; an attack on the railroad and GB will be seen as an attack on a vital Chinese interest and China by extension. Also, via this kind of investment and increase in business, Pakistan can quickly and independently raise the funds to build up the infrastructure to improve conditions in Baluchistan and help solve that issue as well of meeting the economic demands of Baluchistan in a sustainable and equitable manner.

Furthermore, for Pakistan, having this kind of a railway line running through Pakistan would also make it more likely for China to shift some manufacturing to Pakistan in the form of SEZs (once input costs like electricity are properly dealt with), and thereby also showing other countries in BRI that working with China on large projects is still viable (albeit after a large Chinese investment).

Pakistan has to be smart to properly prepare itself (fix its internal problems) and then quickly market itself to China as one of the answer to its Malacca Dilemma.

 

[Raiden]

Malacca strait is a double edged sword, block that and it affects all south asian nation economies. When was the last time that happened?

China relies on oil imports they can use Gwadar in times of any tensions.

Also if this is a conflict due to Taiwan or south china sea border disputes you wont get all south asian nations banding together to go to war. Also India will highly unlikey get involved dispite being in the quad or whatever. Only time such thing could happen if there was all out war with China, not over some martime dispute of a third, fourth country.

The most hurt will be Singapore and Malaysia.

Port of Singapore and M'sia Port Klang will see a dramatic reduction of ships visiting port.

Indonesia's Belawan Port in the Malacca strait will be affected, but Belawan is not the only port in Sumatra, ships could enter into Teluk Bayur Port in Padang or sail directly to Tanjung Priok Port in Jakarta.

But yes, China, Malaysia and Singapore will be heavily affected.

Japan and SK bound ship could sail in the waters north of Australia, but I think China bound ship will be detained by the coalition ship. Australian base in Darwin and the Christmas Island will be the main port to ensure which ships pass through the Bali strait.

 

[FuturePAF]

It is not China who is getting hurt in embargo It is most likely those countries that you mention. Spore staunch ally not sure about that. Spores are 70% Chinese blood is thicker than water. Spore economy depends on free flow of ships imagine just one rocket hitting a ship Insurance rate will skyrocket! Malaysia will sit out any conflict less they get invaded.

Indonesia with 90% Muslim there is no love for the West after the Gaza massacre

Those countries will scream and yell if the strait is blocked.

The only staunch ally are the Japanese and Australian even the Korean will have to think twice to antagonize China since China can lashes back by supporting Noko

There are also the Indians, waiting on the other side, in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

 

[Raiden]

Basically maritime SE Asia is a no go for ships bound for China. The Malacca strait is next to impossible to control due to the heavy presence of military sites in the region which will be reinforced in war.

A PLAN sortie to open those strait from a join US-AUS-INDIA blockade will put the PLAN CSG out of reach of PLAAF land based escort, they are on their own. And the risk is likely too big because of the physical constraint of the Malacca strait.

They will be under constant harassment from US planes flying from the Philippines,

The Philippines and Australia which is a US treaty ally will make sure that second route of Sumatra West Coast ---> Java Southern Coast ---> Bali Strait ---> Makassar strait ---> Second Island chain completely closed.

Because near in that route is RAAF Darwin, rumored to be future base for USAF B-21. A significant portion of RAAF fast jets is also stationed there.

The land route is China's most realistic route if they wanted oil and gas from the Middle East and Russia/Central Asia. Many of China's coastal cities will be severely affected by this and so is countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Viet Nam.


On the + side, those ships will likely port in either Jakarta or Surabaya before they sail into the relative safety of the 2nd Island chain still controlled by the US en route to either Japan or SK.

 

[kmc_chacko]

China relies on oil imports they can use Gwadar in times of any tensions.

Pakistan, which incapable of importing gas/fuel through Iran-Pakistan pipeline due to fear of US sanctions, will they allow China to transport fuel via Gwaddar ?

 

[kmc_chacko]

If Malacca Strait blocked, then how many front will China fight and are they capable of it ? what about internal resistance incase of more fighting fronts open ups & losses mounts.