Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

[Saudang]

In an intense war these supply lines will not matter. once you start lobbing cruise missiles at the Chinese, Indian Armed Forces will be finished. China will have more then enough stored supplies to outlast India, by a very very large margin. Of course Pakistan will help China if requested. India can in no way shape or form in it's current state take on both China and Pakistan. You are now entering into fantasy land talk

you are living in it for last 77 years ... In IOR, Indian navy is the dominant force, have our bases near the choak points and capable of blocking of any navy other than the US Navy.. in the entry point of Malacca Strait, we have Nicobar base and at the entry point of Sunda Strait, Australia has Christmas island.. off couse china can take a detour via south of Australia or through North pole..

 

[lightning f57]

Pakistan, which incapable of importing gas/fuel through Iran-Pakistan pipeline due to fear of US sanctions, will they allow China to transport fuel via Gwaddar ?

Ofcourse, China is investing in Pakistan through its belt and road initiative. US sanctions on Iran is a completely different thing.

 

[lightning f57]

A PLAN sortie to open those strait from a join US-AUS-INDIA blockade

What context will these three band together for a blockade? . Your basically talking about a WW3 event, blocking the straits will be the least of worries.

 

[Raiden]

What context will these three band together for a blockade? . Your basically talking about a WW3 event, blocking the straits will be the least of worries.

Yes exactly that kind. Especially if the PRC is led by PDF geopolitical strategists

 

[kmc_chacko]

Ofcourse, China is investing in Pakistan through its belt and road initiative. US sanctions on Iran is a completely different thing.

if I am not wrong Pakistan had tried to bring in China.

 

[Hendarto]

you are living in it for last 77 years ... In IOR, Indian navy is the dominant force, have our bases near the choak points and capable of blocking of any navy other than the US Navy.. in the entry point of Malacca Strait, we have Nicobar base and at the entry point of Sunda Strait, Australia has Christmas island.. off couse china can take a detour via south of Australia or through North pole..

They will be gone in a flash if the Indians are foolish enough to impede traffic in Strait of Melacca.

The DF-21D, a Chinese medium-range ballistic missile, has an estimated range of 1,035 to 1,726 miles(1,666 to 2,778 kilometers). It's also known as the "carrier killer" because it was designed to attack ships at sea, including U.S. aircraft carriers.

Here are some other features of the DF-21D:

Warhead: The DF-21D's warhead is likely maneuverable and may have an accuracy of 20 meters CEP (circular error probable).

• Guidance system: The DF-21D uses an inertial guidance system and terminal radar.
  
  
• Payload: The DF-21D can deploy a 600 kilogram payload.
  
  
• Mobility: The DF-21D is road mobile.
  
  
• Status: The DF-21D entered service in 2006 and is still in service.

China's growing missile capabilities, including the DF-21D, pose a significant threat to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers and other surface warships in the Indo-Pacific region.

 

[Hendarto]

The bay of Bengal will be infested with Chinese submarines like this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832045750047412290

 

[mythbuster]

you are living in it for last 77 years ... In IOR, Indian navy is the dominant force, have our bases near the choak points and capable of blocking of any navy other than the US Navy.. in the entry point of Malacca Strait, we have Nicobar base and at the entry point of Sunda Strait, Australia has Christmas island.. off couse china can take a detour via south of Australia or through North pole..

Stop flaunting your little one , if push comes to shove Persian gulf will be no go region for India ..... China will get all the energy and raw materials it needs from Russia and central Asia . China can do without middlle eastern oil but India can't .....Indian will need iron chaddi to protect herself

 

[Pingle]

The bay of Bengal will be infested with Chinese submarines like this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832045750047412290

Should I now say in your own words EVER HEARD OF TYRANNY OF DISTANCE?? Which you said in your post # 273??

Infesting BoB with submarines means you will be operating in Indian backyard....

Funny USA a world power capable of projecting power anywhere in the world has to learn about tyranny of distance when coming in China backyard but China doesn't need to learn any tyranny of distance while operating in India backyard..... note Chinese navy comes nowhere close to power projection far away from mainland the USN is capable of....

 

[Hendarto]

Well Gwadar port is just across the Indian subcontinent. It is nuclear power I am sure that in an emergency Pakistan will lend its hand or Hambantota port lease by the Chinese. Recently Spotted


There are many way to bypass Straits of Melacca thru the straits of Bali, Lombok

 

[Raiden]

There are many way to bypass Straits of Melacca thru the straits of Bali, Lombok
View attachment 63432

Even more precarious. Check my post #298

Using route 3 and 4 also meant that the PLAN must have broken the US air, naval and missile ring in the first Island chain or have secured Taiwan/Luzon in the Phillippines.

Because if NOT. The PLAN task force sailing in those route will be at the mercy of US fast jets sortieing from Guam and the Philippines.
Whatever survived the aerial onslaught will be sailing straight into the path of RAAF Darwin, where American + Australian jets will also be waiting.

RAAF Darwin is large enough to host this year's Pitch Black 24 which hosted 140 jets from 20 countries.

And beyond that is RAAF Christmas Island. Also a military airport run by the RAAF where American + allied jets will be sortieng.

I=

 

[Hendarto]

Even more precarious. Check my post #298

Using route 3 and 4 also meant that the PLAN must have broken the US air, naval and missile ring in the first Island chain or have secured Taiwan/Luzon in the Phillippines.

Because if NOT. The PLAN task force sailing in those route will be at the mercy of US fast jets sortieing from Guam and the Philippines.
Whatever survived the aerial onslaught will be sailing straight into the path of RAAF Darwin, where American + Australian jets will also be waiting.

RAAF Darwin is large enough to host this year's Pitch Black 24 which hosted 140 jets from 20 countries.

And beyond that is RAAF Christmas Island. Also a military airport run by the RAAF where American + allied jets will be sortieng.

I=

Christmas Island is a small island It will be incinerated in no time The same with Diego Garcia. But we are talking about submarines here How are they going to detect submarines in vast ocean?

My point is No Indian or any other navy doesn't have free hand in blocking the Straits of Malacca There are other ways to frustrate any attempt to block it. Chinese bomber and J 16 fly from Yunnan will make mince meat out of Indian navy

The ocean is vast I don't think US or any other nation has the resources to police all the waterways.

 

[mythbuster]

Should I now say in your own words EVER HEARD OF TYRANNY OF DISTANCE?? Which you said in your post # 273??

Infesting BoB with submarines means you will be operating in Indian backyard....

Funny USA a world power capable of projecting power anywhere in the world has to learn about tyranny of distance when coming in China backyard but China doesn't need to learn any tyranny of distance while operating in India backyard..... note Chinese navy comes nowhere close to power projection far away from mainland the USN is capable of....

Your backyard is way too loose , it can't squeeze a trespasser

 

[Raiden]

But we are talking about submarines here How are they going to detect submarines in vast ocean?

The route #2 is optimal for fast and heavy SSN, something like the USN Seawolf or the SSN-AUKUS under construction and the PLAN Type 95. Because unlike the Malacca strait (part of the Sunda Shelf), the Banda sea is very DEEP.

Problem for China is:

1. China doesn't have that many SSN, and from the look of it prefers to invest in SSKs for near sea denial
2. China's SSN will be out of reach of PLAAF/PLAN air power while Western forces ASW planes operating in route #2,3 and 4 will be enjoying unmatched freedom in patrolling, detecting and hunting hostile enemy sub. Because they could fly from either Darwin or Papua Nugini and the small Pacific states.

 

[Raiden]

The ocean is vast I don't think US or any other nation has the resources to police all the waterways.

I think the US will sacrifice on one front to bolster the other, for example in such scenario, we'll be seeing less and less US activity in the AMERICOM area patrolling against drug trafficking from Latin America because the US coast guard would be forward deployed to SE Asia.

Also while the ocean is sure vast, most of the sipping lane used is compressed into those tiny chokepoint like in Malacca or route #2 and #3.

Will Chinese cargo ship attempt the longer route to reach China? They will, but the traffic and speed will be severely reduced compared to using those traditional lanes.