Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

[Raiden]

all backed by a fleet of six or more C-295s armed with BrahMos ALCMs. This setup would give us massive range and strike capability across the Indian Ocean.

C-295 with Brahmos? Am I reading this correct?

 

[j_hungary]

The chance, Big country in war with another Big country is very very low

The possible future war is the Big/much Stronger country make aggression to the smaller and weaker country like Russia vs Ukraine, Israel vs Palestine and Lebanon

If China for example attack Taiwan, I doubt US will enter the war directly. And no, India will also not join. India will not even send any ammunition to Taiwan, trust me.....

It REALLY depends on initial phase.

2 things had to happen for China to invade Taiwan.

1.) Increased hostilities gradually over time.
2.) Military build up.

While I will say US probably will not intervene directly when China invade Taiwan, but the American will very likely in the build up stage transfer advance US weaponry to Taiwan, the one that Taiwan asked for and US not willing to sell (F-35 Tomahawk, AEGIS and so on) and the Taiwanese will have the money to buy it unlike Ukraine.

The war will depend on how deep the Taiwanese pocket goes and how much the US is willing to supply the Taiwanese, both before and during the war.

One funny thing I should point out, 4 out of 5 known war game from famous thinktank between Taiwan and China, including the one I myself participated in, ends with China preempted US base in Japan and South Korea and bring US into the war.

 

[Indos]

It REALLY depends on initial phase.

2 things had to happen for China to invade Taiwan.

1.) Increased hostilities gradually over time.
2.) Military build up.

While I will say US probably will not intervene directly when China invade Taiwan, but the American will very likely in the build up stage transfer advance US weaponry to Taiwan, the one that Taiwan asked for and US not willing to sell (F-35 Tomahawk, AEGIS and so on) and the Taiwanese will have the money to buy it unlike Ukraine.

The war will depend on how deep the Taiwanese pocket goes and how much the US is willing to supply the Taiwanese, both before and during the war.

One funny thing I should point out, 4 out of 5 known war game from famous thinktank between Taiwan and China, including the one I myself participated in, ends with China preempted US base in Japan and South Korea and bring US into the war.

Actually I dont think China will attack Taiwan, with slowing economic growth, low fertility rate, China in my opinion prefer status quo.

What happen between Russia and Ukraine will likely make other country reluctant to initiate any war.

If we see ancient China behavior, they rather get content with themselves. We can see for example Tang Dinasty avoid making war with Muslim and they also dont attack Japan. It is Japan who attack China. They also restrain from pocking Russia.

 

[DDG-80]

C-295 with Brahmos? Am I reading this correct?

Sorry, it's SU-30 MKI.

 

[Pingle]

Simulating the IOR: Strategic Maritime Defense Against Chinese Naval Advancements

Alright, here's how I think we can really step up and lock down our maritime defenses. First off, we need to deploy three 800 km BrahMos batteries, along with an ASBM and SMART battery under A&N command. Same goes for Tamil Nadu and Kochi—one battery each of ASBM, SMART, and BrahMos, all backed by a fleet of six or more C-295s armed with BrahMos ALCMs. This setup would give us massive range and strike capability across the Indian Ocean.

Next, we need to get serious about underwater surveillance. Placing SOSUS systems around Malacca and Sri Lanka would give us early warning and tracking on enemy subs. Plus, we should buy six more P-8Is for air patrols, and throw in two Arihant-class SSGNs to boost our underwater muscle. We also need to build up ELINT infrastructure on the Cocos Islands and Seychelles, along with deploying some dedicated satellites. With all this, we’d be able to target any Chinese force in the IOR from up to 1500 km away.

Now, to counter the three key straits that China might use, they’ll likely push for a permanent presence in Africa and start paying more visits to BD and PK. But here’s the thing—if we play our cards right and buy the right systems, we can maintain local superiority in the IOR without breaking the bank.

We should also deploy Agni Prime missiles with 1000-1500 km range in A&N and Kochi, and maybe a few mobile launchers on Agalega. That setup would be a nightmare for any enemy trying to move in the IOR. Plus, SMART missiles can cover potential enemy ports in the neighborhood, while BrahMos keeps their fleets 800 km from our coasts. Honestly, even if we don’t have a huge fleet out there, we can still mess with any enemy forces just from land-based systems. The Arabian Sea? We could turn it into our personal swimming pool, no joke.
View attachment 63555
By placing sensors from Sri Lanka to A&N in a line, we can lock down that entire region, and with NGMVs patrolling, our eastern fleet would be free to go hunt Chinese ships across the IOR with carriers, frigates, and destroyers. And to put the final nail in Pakistan’s coffin, we should set up similar batteries in Mumbai and Gujarat. That would choke them out entirely—forcing them to sneak supplies through Iranian waters, which we could still block by stationing our warships near Aden.

In my opinion, we need to revive the 1971-style missile boat squadrons. Think about it: four NGMVs each for A&N, Vizag, Mumbai, Kochi, and Lakshadweep—20 boats total, maxing out at $220 million each. That, combined with missile batteries, would have Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia locked down. We could also add a squadron of TEDBFs or Tejas Mk1As for maritime strikes out of Gujarat, just to really send the message home.

With all that in place, Pakistan wouldn’t sleep at night—they’d be haunted by the thought of a repeat of Operation Python 2.0. And we’d be sitting pretty with total control over the Arabian Sea and beyond. That's covering the whole IOR as our lake, from Malaysia to Africa, one piece of our ocean to rule it.

I'm adding Thanjavar based flankers armed with air launched Brahmos and naval Fulcrum Ks armed with latest Rampage missiles in the strike package in IOR and malacca strait.....

 

[DDG-80]

I'm adding Thanjavar based flankers armed with air launched Brahmos and naval Fulcrum Ks armed with latest Rampage missiles in the strike package in IOR and malacca strait.....

You're spot on about the Thanjavur-based Flankers armed with BrahMos for anti-ship roles in the IOR and Malacca Strait. Those jets are perfect for hammering PLAN vessels. But for the MiG-29Ks with Rampage missiles, not so much. Rampage isn't built for anti-ship missions—it's more for taking out ground-based strategic targets like airfields and bunkers. Instead, you’d be better off equipping the MiG-29Ks with Rudram anti-radiation missiles to knock out PLAN's shipborne radars. Blind their SAMs, and you've basically neutralized their defense. That’s how you’d make those PLAN ships vulnerable.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

Sorry, it's SU-30 MKI.

And they have no defense against it lol

 

[Hendarto]

You're spot on about the Thanjavur-based Flankers armed with BrahMos for anti-ship roles in the IOR and Malacca Strait. Those jets are perfect for hammering PLAN vessels. But for the MiG-29Ks with Rampage missiles, not so much. Rampage isn't built for anti-ship missions—it's more for taking out ground-based strategic targets like airfields and bunkers. Instead, you’d be better off equipping the MiG-29Ks with Rudram anti-radiation missiles to knock out PLAN's shipborne radars. Blind their SAMs, and you've basically neutralized their defense. That’s how you’d make those PLAN ships vulnerable.

Those bases will be taken out by the combination of long-range UAV, Missile and J-16
The DF-21D, a Chinese medium-range ballistic missile, has an estimated range of 1,035 to 1,726 miles (1,666 to 2,778 kilometers). It's also known as the "carrier killer" because it was designed to attack ships at sea, including U.S. aircraft carriers.

China completing development of CH-7 stealth UCAV​

2024-02-06



CASC's CH-7 ‘Rainbow 7' stealth unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) has been designed to operate in hostile adversarial airspace and conduct strikes on strategic targets. (Janes/Chinese state-owned media)

China's Cai Hong 7 (Rainbow 7, or CH-7) stealth unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) has completed testing and is on schedule to conclude development in 2024, according to Chinese state-owned media.

Developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and powered by an undetermined turbofan engine, the CH-7 is a high-altitude UCAV being developed as a deep penetration platform. The UCAV's central role will be to breach an adversary's defended airspace to strike strategic targets, Janes assesses.

 

[FuturePAF]

Basically maritime SE Asia is a no go for ships bound for China. The Malacca strait is next to impossible to control due to the heavy presence of military sites in the region which will be reinforced in war.

A PLAN sortie to open those strait from a join US-AUS-INDIA blockade will put the PLAN CSG out of reach of PLAAF land based escort, they are on their own. And the risk is likely too big because of the physical constraint of the Malacca strait.

They will be under constant harassment from US planes flying from the Philippines,

The Philippines and Australia which is a US treaty ally will make sure that second route of Sumatra West Coast ---> Java Southern Coast ---> Bali Strait ---> Makassar strait ---> Second Island chain completely closed.

Because near in that route is RAAF Darwin, rumored to be future base for USAF B-21. A significant portion of RAAF fast jets is also stationed there.

The land route is China's most realistic route if they wanted oil and gas from the Middle East and Russia/Central Asia. Many of China's coastal cities will be severely affected by this and so is countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Viet Nam.


On the + side, those ships will likely port in either Jakarta or Surabaya before they sail into the relative safety of the 2nd Island chain still controlled by the US en route to either Japan or SK.

This also comes at a time China has made a pledge to offer fresh loans worth $50 billion to Africa. China wants to make a significant move vis a vi Africa and the Middle East (South West Asia). The Afghans and Turkmenistanis don’t look as keen on big moves.

I would hope China incentives Pakistan towards good governance with a Karakoram rail project. China just invested $2 billion on its side of the Karakoram Highway, so the area hold some promise, for trade and to live troops to contain India.

Oil/gas I think they would get as much as they need from Russia, but it’s to moving of goods to and from China and the Middle East/Africa that needs to be secured.

Goods and services moving through this now actually CPECorridor could then jump start the economy, because moving some industrial projection here would make sense (once the electricity issue is addressed). Side note: as China’s projected population dips to around 400-500 million below India’s projected in about 50 years, Pakistan’s population as a labor force could make up the difference, so while China may not move many industrial works to Pakistan, having the railway in place will make it worthwhile for Chinese companies to remain competitive on labor costs.


Russian wheat and Uzbek cotton could moved to markets in the Middle East and Africa quicker and cheaper (with Pakistan being able to buy them from these countries potentially in lieu of transit trade fees)

The US and its allies could blockade from the malacca straits to Antarctica and China would have to always be able to break this blockade, but a secure rail corridor could China go have uninterrupted trade, requiring a much smaller naval force in the Arabian Sea / Western Indian Ocean to secure trade from that direction.

I thought a route through Myanmar could be viable, but the instability there as well as the heavy Indian presence in the Bay of Bengal makes that harder than even Pakistan. The secondary benefit for a Pakistan route is the re-export to and from Russia and Central Asia. So much more opportunities for China to do value added business. One example is re-exporting Russian oil or gas as petrochemicals such as pharmaceuticals made in Xinjiang to the Middle East. This route would also incentivize Chinese business to invest in western China and close the gap with the east provinces, a key goal by President Xi.

So it’s not that China shouldn’t build in Myanmar but it shouldn’t do both Myanmar and Pakistan, as two insurance policies at first, but later on as engines for Chinese economic growth. Especially now that Bangladesh is free of Indian hegemony and that is also a country with a large population and need for development.

https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1424,quality=80,format=auto/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20161001_CNM992.png

 

[Raiden]

This also comes at a time China has made a pledge to offer fresh loans worth $50 billion to Africa. China wants to make a significant move vis a vi Africa and the Middle East (South West Asia). The Afghans and Turkmenistanis don’t look as keen on big moves.

I would hope China incentives Pakistan towards good governance with a Karakoram rail project. China just invested $2 billion on its side of the Karakoram Highway, so the area hold some promise, for trade and to live troops to contain India.

Oil/gas I think they would get as much as they need from Russia, but it’s to moving of goods to and from China and the Middle East/Africa that needs to be secured.

Goods and services moving through this now actually CPECorridor could then jump start the economy, because moving some industrial projection here would make sense (once the electricity issue is addressed). Side note: as China’s projected population dips to around 400-500 million below India’s projected in about 50 years, Pakistan’s population as a labor force could make up the difference, so while China may not move many industrial works to Pakistan, having the railway in place will make it worthwhile for Chinese companies to remain competitive on labor costs.


Russian wheat and Uzbek cotton could moved to markets in the Middle East and Africa quicker and cheaper (with Pakistan being able to buy them from these countries potentially in lieu of transit trade fees)

The US and its allies could blockade from the malacca straits to Antarctica and China would have to always be able to break this blockade, but a secure rail corridor could China go have uninterrupted trade, requiring a much smaller naval force in the Arabian Sea / Western Indian Ocean to secure trade from that direction.

I thought a route through Myanmar could be viable, but the instability there as well as the heavy Indian presence in the Bay of Bengal makes that harder than even Pakistan. The secondary benefit for a Pakistan route is the re-export to and from Russia and Central Asia. So much more opportunities for China to do value added business. One example is re-exporting Russian oil or gas as petrochemicals such as pharmaceuticals made in Xinjiang to the Middle East. This route would also incentivize Chinese business to invest in western China and close the gap with the east provinces, a key goal by President Xi.

So it’s not that China shouldn’t build in Myanmar but it shouldn’t do both Myanmar and Pakistan, as two insurance policies at first, but later on as engines for Chinese economic growth. Especially now that Bangladesh is free of Indian hegemony and that is also a country with a large population and need for development.

https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1424,quality=80,format=auto/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20161001_CNM992.png

The land route has always been the most probable route for China to trade in war.

Because the sea route is closed and America will likely force Europe to stop trade altogether with China, so no ships from Europe to China vice versa.

That left the sea route only for the energy need. This could be solved by building pipelines on those route you mentioned.

But also due to the stop of trade and blockade, Asia's mighty coastal cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Singapore, Busan will see a long decline. So is major Western ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp.

It's going to be the end of the world order as we know it or maybe a return to the 20th century where trans Atlantic shipping between Europe and America returns to be the busiest shipping lanes.

 

[Raiden]

But also due to the stop of trade and blockade, Asia's mighty coastal cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Singapore, Busan will see a long decline. So is major Western ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp.

It's going to be the end of the world order as we know it or maybe a return to the 20th century where trans Atlantic shipping between Europe and America returns to be the busiest shipping lanes.

I don't think a showdown between China and the West will have any clear winner. The Asia Pacific contest is mostly on water where(current) China's manpower advantage is going to be negated, until eventually their population declined to 500-700mil people at the end of the century, while another attempt to physically occupy China is impossible due to the sheer size of the country.

It will likely be a stalemate, long enough and those coastal cities that saw skyrocketing growth during the times of unrestricted globalization will die.

We could be seeing the reverse of globalization, so instead of cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Singapore, New Delhi, New York, London etc. Most of the next great cities will likely be in the long abandoned Silk Road. Think cities like Bukhara, Samarkand, Kabul etc, which declined when the Europeans successfully gained mastery of the seas in the 17th century onwards.

The moment naval trade cease and land trade becomes the norm, so will be the return of those cities in top spots of global cities, like they used to in the middle ages.

 

[FuturePAF]

The land route has always been the most probable route for China to trade in war.

Because the sea route is closed and America will likely force Europe to stop trade altogether with China, so no ships from Europe to China vice versa.

That left the sea route only for the energy need. This could be solved by building pipelines on those route you mentioned.

But also due to the stop of trade and blockade, Asia's mighty coastal cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Singapore, Busan will see a long decline. So is major Western ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp.

It's going to be the end of the world order as we know it or maybe a return to the 20th century where trans Atlantic shipping between Europe and America returns to be the busiest shipping lanes.

For Europe, China could build many nuclear icebreakers and use the Northern route. Thanks to global warming, that is much more viable.

So trade to Europe and Latin America is still likely to have other viable alternative, and could be protected by the large PLAN CSGs. It’s the choke points to the Indian Ocean that could be overwhelmed by the dozen or so potential adversaries along the way.

China has already made more than 3 dozen passages through the Artic with its ice breaker. A next generation ice breaker / destroyer could be a possibility for the PLAN, along with special reinforced hull container ships for passage through the artic. The US has only two icebreakers and Russia has 50+ icebreakers.

China could easily build a fleet of 50 Ice breakers (especially now that China is looking to build a Chinese port on the Tumin river with a path past North Korea and Russia) over the next decade.

 

[lightning f57]

Simulating the IOR: Strategic Maritime Defense Against Chinese Naval Advancements

Alright, here's how I think we can really step up and lock down our maritime defenses. First off, we need to deploy three 800 km BrahMos batteries, along with an ASBM and SMART battery under A&N command. Same goes for Tamil Nadu and Kochi—one battery each of ASBM, SMART, and BrahMos, all backed by a fleet of six or more C-295s armed with BrahMos ALCMs. This setup would give us massive range and strike capability across the Indian Ocean.

Next, we need to get serious about underwater surveillance. Placing SOSUS systems around Malacca and Sri Lanka would give us early warning and tracking on enemy subs. Plus, we should buy six more P-8Is for air patrols, and throw in two Arihant-class SSGNs to boost our underwater muscle. We also need to build up ELINT infrastructure on the Cocos Islands and Seychelles, along with deploying some dedicated satellites. With all this, we’d be able to target any Chinese force in the IOR from up to 1500 km away.

Now, to counter the three key straits that China might use, they’ll likely push for a permanent presence in Africa and start paying more visits to BD and PK. But here’s the thing—if we play our cards right and buy the right systems, we can maintain local superiority in the IOR without breaking the bank.

We should also deploy Agni Prime missiles with 1000-1500 km range in A&N and Kochi, and maybe a few mobile launchers on Agalega. That setup would be a nightmare for any enemy trying to move in the IOR. Plus, SMART missiles can cover potential enemy ports in the neighborhood, while BrahMos keeps their fleets 800 km from our coasts. Honestly, even if we don’t have a huge fleet out there, we can still mess with any enemy forces just from land-based systems. The Arabian Sea? We could turn it into our personal swimming pool, no joke.
View attachment 63555
By placing sensors from Sri Lanka to A&N in a line, we can lock down that entire region, and with NGMVs patrolling, our eastern fleet would be free to go hunt Chinese ships across the IOR with carriers, frigates, and destroyers. And to put the final nail in Pakistan’s coffin, we should set up similar batteries in Mumbai and Gujarat. That would choke them out entirely—forcing them to sneak supplies through Iranian waters, which we could still block by stationing our warships near Aden.

In my opinion, we need to revive the 1971-style missile boat squadrons. Think about it: four NGMVs each for A&N, Vizag, Mumbai, Kochi, and Lakshadweep—20 boats total, maxing out at $220 million each. That, combined with missile batteries, would have Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia locked down. We could also add a squadron of TEDBFs or Tejas Mk1As for maritime strikes out of Gujarat, just to really send the message home.

With all that in place, Pakistan wouldn’t sleep at night—they’d be haunted by the thought of a repeat of Operation Python 2.0. And we’d be sitting pretty with total control over the Arabian Sea and beyond. That's covering the whole IOR as our lake, from Malaysia to Africa, one piece of our ocean to rule it.

Someones getting too excited and over fantasising here, go take a glass of water might help you wake up.

 

[Raiden]

For Europe, China could build many nuclear icebreakers and use the Northern route. Thanks to global warming, that is much more viable.

So trade to Europe and Latin America is still likely to have other viable alternative, and could be protected by the large PLAN CSGs. It’s the choke points to the Indian Ocean that could be overwhelmed by the dozen or so potential adversaries along the way.

China has already made more than 3 dozen passages through the Artic with its ice breaker. A next generation ice breaker / destroyer could be a possibility for the PLAN, along with special reinforced hull container ships for passage through the artic. The US has only two icebreakers and Russia has 50+ icebreakers.

China could easily build a fleet of 50 Ice breakers (especially now that China is looking to build a Chinese port on the Tumin river with a path past North Korea and Russia) over the next decade.

You do realize that at the mouth of this waterway is Alaska?

 

[j_hungary]

Actually I dont think China will attack Taiwan, with slowing economic growth, low fertility rate, China in my opinion prefer status quo.

What happen between Russia and Ukraine will likely make other country reluctant to initiate any war.

If we see ancient China behavior, they rather get content with themselves. We can see for example Tang Dinasty avoid making war with Muslim and they also dont attack Japan. It is Japan who attack China. They also restrain from pocking Russia.

That's a black swan event, it will never happen unless the Chinese Central Government are in trouble with either domestic or international issue or both, it will be like when the Argentinian invade Falkland, it wouldn't be such a move unless it's the last move.