Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

[ety]

Seriously in the long term I see Russia as an ally of USA or Western Europe not China. They will maintain a trading relationship with China

Yeah, Russia will be welcomed to join NATO after Russia gives up its nukes and breaks into few smaller countries.

 

[nahtanbob]

Yeah, Russia will be welcomed to join NATO after Russia gives up its nukes and breaks into few smaller countries.

whatever

 

[j_hungary]

I agree, as I pointed it out in an earlier post. Even spinning up shipbuilding will necessitate outsourcing some production to South Korean and Japanese shipyards for the sake of expediency. Equally, the countries most dependent on the US will be drawn in to support the cause. This is something I tried to explain as well; these countries will be a staging ground whether they want to be involved or not.

There is a reason why the countries using AEGIS (Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Norway) all have the capability to build their own ship, either with or without US or some other country help, they are doing that to slim line and distribute the burden of completing a ship so you can basically float parts from other part of the world to build a AEGIS ship if one area is lacking behind (so US can enlist Canada and Spain help to build their ship and Japan can enlist South Korea or Australia help to build their AEGIS ship or etc)

Ship building is no longer like how they used to do, which is building it in a single yard ground up. Nowadays it's all modular, which mean it wouldn't matter if that block come from the US, Canada or Japan, it could put in an Australian ship or vice versa, and it didn't need any of these country to be in a war to do it.

 

[j_hungary]

Seriously in the long term I see Russia as an ally of USA or Western Europe not China. They will maintain a trading relationship with China

You need to look at who or what is after Putin, he is 77 (or something like that) at best he could probably have 10 years if he wasn't shown a window by the Russian elite for basically putting all their life upside down.

And that basically depends on how much the next guy want to be a Chinese Biatches....

 

[FuturePAF]

How can you turn one million Americans into skilled experienced welders in 3 years, and how you build up a complete shipbuilding supply chain in the same period of time? when was the last time such a thing ever happened in the human history?
For many industries, once you lose it, you can never get it back again.

A lot of automation, but also a national security funding to universities to turn out engineers trained in shipbuilding with that new automated tech.

Ships will also have to get simpler and have less of a lifespan or even be autonomous (because the military has a recruiting problem).

We also can’t forget all the shipyards in countries allied to the US, could get interacts to build these simpler ships.

 

[FuturePAF]

That is exactly the problem rather than the solution watch this video showing the problem with shipbuilding in US They sometimes underestimate their capabilities to build ships Getting skilled workers is the hardest thing to do and then they have to retain them but if the salary is not competitive people just jump jobs

US Navy's LCS is already a disaster and now it’s becoming obvious the Constellation class frigate is shaping up to be yet another US navy screwup. This video explains why that is. It goes into the delays, design issues, the broader industry problems and problematic procurement decision policies.

Yes, people will leave jobs if the pay is crap, and who can blame them. So pay will have to go up. Also, yes the LCS was a crap ship. I toured one and said as much to the crew; that the navy is giving them such an inadequate ship. Thankfully the USN finally adopted the constellation class, but even that could be made more simple and to the point, instead of a the expensive jack of all trades. I also got to tour the Italian frigate the constellation was based upon, and it looked like a significant improvement over the LCS, but a bit fancy. Considering the Europeans built frigates for long lives and modest duty, it’s a design that works for them, but for the USN, a simpler but more rugged design might be best.

IMHO, it’s not so much the contractors as the politicians and the navy don’t hold the contractors accountable to a design, the way it was done in the old days.

 

[FuturePAF]

There is a reason why the countries using AEGIS (Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Norway) all have the capability to build their own ship, either with or without US or some other country help, they are doing that to slim line and distribute the burden of completing a ship so you can basically float parts from other part of the world to build a AEGIS ship if one area is lacking behind (so US can enlist Canada and Spain help to build their ship and Japan can enlist South Korea or Australia help to build their AEGIS ship or etc)

Ship building is no longer like how they used to do, which is building it in a single yard ground up. Nowadays it's all modular, which mean it wouldn't matter if that block come from the US, Canada or Japan, it could put in an Australian ship or vice versa, and it didn't need any of these country to be in a war to do it.

Precisely, the US just doesn’t give contracts to foreign yards for political financial reasons; Buy American. But if a new Reagan style buildup is required (in a future Trump Administration?), the US could enlist Asia, Australian and European Shipyards, to all build around the clock for the USN.

As that new Binkov video points out, there is a lot of stupidity in how the work is getting done, but a more focused fleet of cheaper and probably smaller ships, is probably key what is best suited to quickly keep up with the PLAN. ships that can be build globally and be fitted out in America, with sensitive equipment built outside of the shipyards.

 

[nahtanbob]

That is exactly the problem rather than the solution watch this video showing the problem with shipbuilding in US They sometimes underestimate their capabilities to build ships Getting skilled workers is the hardest thing to do and then they have to retain them but if the salary is not competitive people just jump jobs

US Navy's LCS is already a disaster and now it’s becoming obvious the Constellation class frigate is shaping up to be yet another US navy screwup. This video explains why that is. It goes into the delays, design issues, the broader industry problems and problematic procurement decision policies.

Seriously we, Americans wrote most of the textbooks Chinese studied in STEM fields. Most of the folks who wrote the textbooks are still alive

 

[Hendarto]

Seriously we, Americans wrote most of the textbooks Chinese studied in STEM fields. Most of the folks who wrote the textbooks are still alive

Past performance does not guarantee future success! I think you guys have elevated praise for yourself. China was embargoed by the US and the West since 1949 until 1974. Nothing came into China from the West. No lecturer, no machinery, no conference, and no books. Yet they built atomic bombs, satellites, and nuclear submarines by themselves during that time. How did they do it ? Yup by themselves granted they got outstanding people like Qian Xueshen, and Huang Xuhua. Qin Shanjiang etc

 

[Beijingwalker]

A lot of automation, but also a national security funding to universities to turn out engineers trained in shipbuilding with that new automated tech.

Ships will also have to get simpler and have less of a lifespan or even be autonomous (because the military has a recruiting problem).

We also can’t forget all the shipyards in countries allied to the US, could get interacts to build these simpler ships.

Automation? lol, this is another sector that US is far far behind China, This also represent how the whole supply chain doesn't exist in US.

 

[100%_Guest]

Past performance does not guarantee future success! I think you guys have elevated praise for yourself. China was embargoed by the US and the West since 1949 until 1974. Nothing came into China from the West. No lecturer, no machinery, no conference, and no books. Yet they built atomic bombs, satellites, and nuclear submarines by themselves during that time. How did they do it ? Yup by themselves granted they got outstanding people like Qian Xueshen, and Huang Xuhua. Qin Shanjiang etc

But...but... CN had time machines to "copy paste" their future " ppt inventions"

 

[nahtanbob]

Past performance does not guarantee future success!

Very true

The handful of Chinese in USA did well because they were in America. Not because they were Chinese.

 

[Hendarto]

Very true

The handful of Chinese in USA did well because they were in America. Not because they were Chinese.

Nope Von Karman is a Hungarian Jew nothing to do with America He won't be in America if it not for Hitler Heck the whole NASA is founded by mostly German Engineers. Huang Xuhua, Deng Jiazan never set foot in America

 

[Beijingwalker]

India is really LAND locked, its land routes go nowhere. While China has 2 options, both over land and sea, India has just one.

 

[Michael]

The issue here is, at a economic standpoint. US did not lose anything they had not allocated. Bear in mind, all the budget were there, and in most case, it's a "use it or lose it" situation. And we aren't talking about getting in extra hundreds billion a year (it would be 300 billions a year for Iraq and Afghan combine) we are talking about 40-50 billions a year. That was well within the budget even if we are talking about extra allocation.

The economic impact can only be applying once, it's not ongoing because once you cut off the Russian (Which most EU did) it won't have a lasting impact on their economy, in fact, in most EU case (beside Eastern Europe that heavily deal with Russia before the war) have largely going back to pre-war level, oil price has gone back to $85-89 a barrel and inflation rate had dropped back to 3 to 4 %. The economic impact wasn't at that stage and EU as a whole is more than enough to deal with that impact. You are talking about the biggest Economic group in the world...

While on the other hand, those European country (and USA of course) are simply giving old weapon away and brought brand new from the US and EU, just like the US Ukraine bill, up to 80% of those money the Allies patched to Ukraine was actually being spend within the US and Europe, so those money were actually going back to US and EU economy. And those weapon (older F-16, older Leo 2 Tank) are going to be replaced anyway, what this war did is just brought the schedule up.

Again, as I say. The west involvement with the Ukraine war is not as big as you think and what Russia make out to be. This war is not going to be enough to make a lasting dent in the US and EU, not with 50 or 60 bil a year rate, let alone depleting their power, if they were giving aid at the stage of depleting their own power, the west would have dump a few hundred Fighter Aircraft and a few thousand tank, a few thousand Artillery and SPG and a few thousand cruise missile, along with a few trillion dollars combine every year to generate service and compensation. Russia would have been defeated in Ukraine a long time ago......

Also, it's worth notice that US wasn't aiming at collapsing Russia, the US was aimed to diminish Russia as a regional power, and make it Chinese problem (like North Korea), if US want to destroy Russia, all they need to do is to raise their own oil production by 10% and ask Canada to do the same (which was the first and tird biggest oil production country in the world), then oil price will be below $50 (around 35-49) a barrel, Russia is going to lose money from extracting oil and you are talking about 400 to 500 billions for Russia, that's almost half their GDP. The problem for China vis-a-vis Russia is, a damaged Russia is no good for China, because it would become their economic burden, there aren't many resources Russia had, and China can take most of the resource Russia had China had it too (like copper, nickel, sulphur), you are talking about roughly 600 billion worth of oil, gas and raw material (Iron ore, cobalt mainly) . Even if you can digest them all, in exchange you would have to prop up the entire 1.5 trillion Pre-War Russia economy. That trade is always going to be deficit, and with Rouble being non-tradeable, which mean you will need to pump 1 trillion worth of Yuan into Russia every year in order to make it afloat. And as you said, China can't have a collapsed Russia, which mean you are forced to take that mess.

For these analyses of yours, we disagree on too many details:
1. we think that it is true that the US and NATO countries did not have full inputs in the Russo-Ukrainian war. But it's not that you think those inputs didn't have much effect on them. Either way, these huge supplies were indeed consumed on the battlefield. This is real attrition. Even if some of their aid was a transactional act, it would require the war to end in the way it was intended in order to reap the rewards. The weapons provided by some European countries have seriously compromised their own security and defense. They do not have a larger defense budget to supplement these armaments.
2, The economic situation of the United States and European countries is not good. There are some European countries that are not aligned with the United States on the issue of trade with China. More some European countries choose to trade with China under the table. If you go through Chinese social media, you will find a lot of evidence of private trade. These are not small numbers of trade. This includes the United States as well. It's just that, whereas before these trades were more in the news, now they are taking place under the table.
3, The U.S. does have some influence over the oil economy, but the oil economy is not entirely under U.S. control these days. Many countries have begun to use local currency settlements or settlement systems other than the U.S. dollar in their oil trade. If the United States were to forcefully manipulate the price of oil, it would only make these non-dollar transactions more widespread and further reduce the international status of the dollar. At the same time, due to the rise of new energy sources, the influence of oil on national energy sources is gradually diminishing.
4, the United States did once have a huge military-industrial system. The equipment and factories it now sequesters are still a huge number. For example, Boeing and General Motors are in decline, but when the country needs them, they can convert civilian production lines into weapons production lines in a very short time. But many more factories can no longer be converted to military production lines, and they have a severe shortage of workers to operate those machines. The current prevalence of the virtual economy and the decline of the real economy in the United States has not been transformed. When a crisis comes, huge amounts of wealth cannot be converted into physical goods; they are waste paper and numbers.
5, Russia does suffer some repercussions because of the Russia-Ukraine war. But at present these effects are still in a manageable range. In the past, Russia has been focusing on the European direction, and its relationship with China is not as close as it appears on international diplomatic occasions. Russia is now taking the Far East as the center of gravity for its future development, which is the only way to show that it really wants to have a close relationship with China. The conflict between China and Russia is so long ago that it is hard for them to really let go of their past hatred. The US has helped China and Russia to let go of their hatred. If it wasn't for some moves by the US, Russia wouldn't have taken the initiative to move closer to China. Russia has a lot of resources and China has money technology and talents. This is standard cooperative behavior, not helping behavior.