Michael
Think Tank Analyst
- Jan 5, 2024
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China and the U.S., don't want a really big war with each other. The decision makers on both sides are well aware of the consequences of such a war. It's just that, due to information asymmetry, it's easy to miscalculate: I don't want to hit you, but I think you want to hit me ......I suppose China will try to keep the friction below a certain threshold, and use the experience for training, but when the Philippines and the US will be looking for a casus belli, any one of these incidents could be blown out of proportion to justify a blockade. A modern day Gulf of Tonkin incident.
As two major powers, the current official language is “military competition”. This means that neither side wants a direct war, but there will be some “friction” or an arms race in the military field, as well as proxy wars. Currently both sides have been setting up theater level commander hotlines (PLA Southern Theater Commander and US Indo-Pacific HQ Commander) in order to prevent overstepping the boundaries in these “military rivalries” and escalating to war.