Opinion: India Pakistan near conflict - Escalation management non-existent

[side-winder]

One strategic dilemma for India is if it initiates round 2 it will likely trigger swift US condemnation and new anti-Indian measures against India given Trump ceasefire. India will begin to be depicted as a rogue state.

In the next war, we will see Pakistan attack cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Calcutta, Chennai, Hyderabad, in addition to IoK and western India.

If they mean to initiate round 2. They will find a reason to sell and for that to justify. Without that, its a diplomatic blunder which they aren't that stupid to commit.

 

[Abdul q]

Two immediate action points :
remove the word "restraint" from war strategy

and 2nd ....go for Hypersonic...

Don’t worry our airforce won’t restrain army will…. They 7 lac are busy dealing with political terrorism

 

[NA71]

If they mean to initiate round 2. They will find a reason to sell and for that to justify. Without that, its a diplomatic blunder which they aren't that stupid to commit.

They are actually ....reason could be any false flag ....in a hour or so.....

They next round will keep BJP in politics.....

 

[A1Kaid]

If they mean to initiate round 2. They will find a reason to sell and for that to justify. Without that, its a diplomatic blunder which they aren't that stupid to commit.

They may or may not try that depends on how irrational Modi behaves, but US has shifted whose narrative they are aligned with more, and that is Pakistan, so irrespective of India's casus belli, US will take a more pro-Pakistan position going forward if India attacks first.

China will also back Pakistan, China is quietly happy seeing India get bashed by US and seeing India's growing isolation.

Main point is there are higher US-related costs for India to attack this time.

 

[r3alist]

One strategic dilemma for India is if it initiates round 2 it will likely trigger swift US condemnation and new anti-Indian measures against India given Trump ceasefire. India will begin to be depicted as a rogue state.

In the next war, we will see Pakistan attack cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Calcutta, Chennai, Hyderabad, in addition to IoK and western India.

It depends on the basis of their justification.

And the magnitude.

Remember at no point did any us official fully doubt the Indian claim, as they are also invested in the narrative of Islamic terrorism.

All they said was you acted hastily and gather the proof, if they contradict India they would contradict their own security architecture

So to me the main question is is the ending point of the last conflict the starting point of the next one?

 

[RajaBaja]

If they mean to initiate round 2. They will find a reason to sell and for that to justify. Without that, its a diplomatic blunder which they aren't that stupid to commit.

The issue is, any nation has to sell to it's people first and their people are already sold on the idea of "taking care of the Pakistan issue". "Phull Saport" already.

The message from Modi / RSS to masses is: Revenge from Pakistan = Make up for Mughal empire + Hindutva call to rise in the world + Victimization due to Pehelgam and terrorism. This "mixture narrative" has worked well to 85% Hindu majority.

 

[NA71]

They may or may not try that depends on how irrational Modi behaves, but US has shifted whose narrative they are aligned with more, and that is Pakistan so irrespective of India's casus belli, US will take a more pro-Pakistan position going forward if India attacks first.

Main point is there are higher US-related costs for India to attack this time.

Sir, never believe in US specially under Trump....

 

[A1Kaid]

Sir, never believe in US specially under Trump....

No one should blindly believe, when you see real tangible steps thats different: BLA terrorist designation, WH invite, trade deal, oil deal, shifting narratives "I love Pakistan", "India dead economy" there are too many signals too just ignore as nonchalant this is recalibration.

 

[r3alist]

The message from Modi / RSS to masses is: Revenge from Pakistan = Make up for Mughal empire + Hindutva call to rise in the world + Victimization due to Pehelgam and terrorism. This "mixture narrative" has worked well to 85% Hindu majority.

You're right that's the messaging, but pretty much only messaging, because the RSS leadership are pragmatic

These guys not gonna go from 0 to hero overnight, they are hoping that if they can project muscularity than people will treat them as if they are. The only time they get brave is when it's 4 on one against a Muslim uncle or grandad coming back from maghrib prayer.


But the RSS leadership think that is stage 1.

Don't give them too much credit

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[PakistaniDefender]

Next option is IN running a gauntlet against “terror” threats in Khi in combination of landing spec ops or targeting A2/AD systems otherwise. IN is likely to mow through PN ships so they are hoping for success there.

Sir is it that easy? PN Ships are in no match for IN Ships but don't you think that PAF can give them tough response. PAF Squadrons at masroor are Anti ship trained and can wreck havoc on IN Ships. It is easy to track IN Ships through satellite as well as MPAs. Only if India causes severe damage to Masroor airbase then maybe the IN can have a chance

 

[Dalit]

If they mean to initiate round 2. They will find a reason to sell and for that to justify. Without that, its a diplomatic blunder which they aren't that stupid to commit.

Another false flag.

 

[A1Kaid]

Sir is it that easy? PN Ships are in no match for IN Ships but don't you think that PAF can give them tough response. PAF Squadrons at masroor are Anti ship trained and can wreck havoc on IN Ships. It is easy to track IN Ships through satellite as well as MPAs. Only if India causes severe damage to Masroor airbase then maybe the IN can have a chance

Pakistan has multiple ways to neutralize India's naval assets including INS Vikrant which is only semi-functional.

 

[PakistaniDefender]

Mumbai, Bengaluru, Calcutta, Chennai, Hyderabad

Which missiles can be used to hit them?

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

First of all, I really appreciate everyone of you giving your thoughts on this critical issue. I posted this as I can sense the gravity of the situation and was hoping a community debate will take place. What’s being discussed here by a few needs to involve the entire community here and discussions outside of this forum. I’ll summarize some key points to further the topic:

• FIRST POINT AND MOST CRITICAL: Pakistan MUST think, assess and have plans for a drawn out war. It MUST KNOW that Modi and the company may be ready for some nukes. Modi is crazy and you are dealing with a mass murderer who has no issue losing a few million people to destroy Pakistan in return. So that’s their main deal. 1: Banking on the fact that Pakistan will take the beating and 2: If Pakistan goes to nuke, we’ll lose a few cities but will end Pakistan once and for all. This is their doomsday scenario we MUST be prepared for.

• World Status: They will on purpose start something just to gain ground among people in India. Why? That’s what keeps them in power. That would also be a message to the world “we are truly a big country and don’t care about Trump”. To their calculation, this is a MUST DO to win back the world and even tell America we are independent and will fight our own wars.

• Russia MUST NOT be trusted by Pakistan in any war. Remember IRAN! Russian jews have served as Israel’s PM’s, etc. There is a huge Russian Jewish population in Russia and in Israel. Many Russian Jews serve Israel’s defense forces at all levels. Just remember what happened to Iran and Russia was asleep the whole time because it has great people to people contacts.

• Now some other major points:

Cause of where India is today on Pakistan: There were a lot of separations between Hindus also. However, Modi has been able to connect all Indian people with one thought “Hindutva” and second: Pakistan. In their history, they are taught how the Mughals ruled them for centuries and somehow, in the RSS world (that’s now every Hindu’s world it seems), Pakistan belong to the Mughal descends while their Muslim population is different (not that they care about them). And that, Hidutva would’ve taken over the world but Mughal rule destroyed Hindu progression. Now you’ve made a perfect recipe of Religion + History + Anger + Victimization towards ONE enemy, that is Pakistan. So expecting any common sense or even humanity is out of question.

• Pakistan and Pakistanis need to unite on this ONE topic. We can play politics and whatever else out there but we MUST unite for our country, survival and existence.

• How you tackle this, some of you pointed out right, Pakistan internal and Pakistanis across the world, need to be READY for this “war of annihilation”, like a member put it

• Restraint: I think you guys are right. Time to take off the “restraint glove”. Because if we stay in restrain, it may be the first strike and a massive one. We don’t have a nuke capable sub yet, for a second strike. We may be able to get one by 2030 but I doubt India would wait till 2028 when Pakistan would start to re-balance its economy and the economy would jump over half a trillion and the defense budget will jump also. India will no way want to fight a Pakistan with a $ 15 to 20 billion defense budget with new systems and economy growing.

@Fatman17 @Waz @Blain2 @Waz @Master Chief

Agreed.

If the indians think that in a nuclear war, Pakistan will be wiped out and india will only lose a few cities then indian kind has another reality check coming. During operation sindoor, the indians got a beating from Pakistan that they could never have imagined even in their worst nightmares. They never thought that Pakistan could ever possess the overwhelming military capabilities that it does. Likewise, the ONLY reason why india is not launching a full scale military attack on Pakistan is because Pakistan has WAY WAY more devastating nuclear weapons than it publicly acknowledges. Pakistan DOES have more than enough nukes to permanently wipe india off the face of the universe. indians are very well aware of this fact hence why they feel so trapped and encircled by Pakistan.

 

[PakistaniDefender]

Pakistan has multiple ways to neutralize India's naval assets including INS Vikrant which is only semi-functional.

Yea. Our Subs can be deadly too. Our anti ship Coastal batteries are mobile too(shoot and scoot) in case IN enters our waters.