PAF Conducts Successful Test Launch of Taimoor ALCM

[Vkdindian1]

First trial of Taimoor (like for real first not first publicly revealed successful first trial and sorry I need to pull a trust me bro on that based on people I know). This means this was the first trial of Ra'ad 2 with seeker + terminal guidance. Many tests of Ra'ad before this but first trial of the end game.


So the much talked about CEP is actually a statistical measure, which means that you can either do lots of actual tests or lots of simulations. You can guess that people do high fidelity simulations to get a pretty good estimate of the CEP. Unfortunately, this number is going to be super classified. So I can't really answer your question because I don't know.

Regarding it not hitting inside the circle, I wouldn't worry too much about it. Firstly, random effects can and do cause errors, which is why CEP is a statistical measure and not a deterministic measure. Secondly, im sure the data is being poured over to see what the specific reason for the error was. Thirdly, this was just the first test. And finally, it worked as a proof of concept because the seeker + guidance was clearly working - just not working well enough.

This thing carries a 400kg warhead so it doesn't need to be 5m CEP or anything. According to this website a 400kg tnt blast is lethal upto 17m:

Blast Damage Estimation | International Ammunition Technical Guidelines

unsaferguard.org

Just for a ballpark.

Considering first trial, proof of concept is more important. If the guidance can work on SAMSH, it shouldn’t be difficult to replicate here. More so due to the fact that this has lower speed.

Most important - This test appears to be conducted to send a signal across that erstwhile systems under nuclear category are being modified for conventional role, which wasn’t the case till May 25. These weapons would come under the rocket force. Difficult times for India due to very similar profile as a RAAD but non-nuclear.

 

[JamD]

Considering first trial, proof of concept is more important. If the guidance can work on SAMSH, it shouldn’t be difficult to replicate here. More so due to the fact that this has lower speed.

I wouldn't compare SMASH (a ballistic missiles with probably a radar seeker) with a subsonic cruise missile with an IIR seeker. VERY different kinematics and very different seekers. Also, like I said, accuracy is a statistical effect so I wouldn't lose sleep over one test not hitting bullseye. I wouldn't even know what kind of targets discrimination each system has and what special trajectory the Taimoor is following. So lots of unknowns on our end for me to conclude that this will be an unreliable weapon.

Most important - This test appears to be conducted to send a signal across that erstwhile systems under nuclear category are being modified for conventional role, which wasn’t the case till May 25. These weapons would come under the rocket force. Difficult times for India due to very similar profile as a RAAD but non-nuclear.

The focus on establishing conventional deterence is obvious. However, Taimoor will be used by the PAF and not the army so no rocket force command.

 

[puttputt]

I wouldn't compare SMASH (a ballistic missiles with probably a radar seeker) with a subsonic cruise missile with an IIR seeker. VERY different kinematics and very different seekers. Also, like I said, accuracy is a statistical effect so I wouldn't lose sleep over one test not hitting bullseye. I wouldn't even know what kind of targets discrimination each system has and what special trajectory the Taimoor is following. So lots of unknowns on our end for me to conclude that this will be an unreliable weapon.


The focus on establishing conventional deterence is obvious. However, Taimoor will be used by the PAF and not the army so no rocket force command.

Just throwing it out here, but if the PAF is genuinely serious about leveraging ALCMs at scale, it will need to buy large numbers of Chinese ones. NESCOM will not ramp up Taimur production to the levels necessary to deliver this capability this soon.

IMO, there'll be a large NORINCO ALCM and SOW order.

 

[JamD]

Just throwing it out here, but if the PAF is genuinely serious about leveraging ALCMs at scale, it will need to buy large numbers of Chinese ones. NESCOM will not ramp up Taimur production to the levels necessary to deliver this capability this soon.

IMO, there'll be a large NORINCO ALCM and SOW order.

Perhaps. However, for the kinds of targets I envision for Taimoor I'd think 10 units are more than enough. There is the Azb series as well, which can be produced quite rapidly. It is quite interesting that in BuM Fatah-1s were launched but no Azbs (swift retort had Azbs). PAF was afraid of losing jets? prepares for hate lol.

 

[falcon34]

Perhaps. However, for the kinds of targets I envision for Taimoor I'd think 10 units are more than enough. There is the Azb series as well, which can be produced quite rapidly. It is quite interesting that in BuM Fatah-1s were launched but no Azbs (swift retort had Azbs). PAF was afraid of losing jets? prepares for hate lol.

Azb series max range is 250kms, than there is alrosoob whose status is unknown with 350 km range.
These weapons can't hit central India. Only Taimoor can. One I am sure of after 10 may they won't leave targeting indian airbases to PA or rocket force.
A hundred or 50+ are a given like CM400.
Tbh I think PAF felt let down after bholari.
Secondly I wanted to ask the infrastructure for raads has been there for 2 decades now, the only thing new here is guidance wouldn't that make production cheaper since we are even producing our own seeker

 

[Michael]

Just throwing it out here, but if the PAF is genuinely serious about leveraging ALCMs at scale, it will need to buy large numbers of Chinese ones. NESCOM will not ramp up Taimur production to the levels necessary to deliver this capability this soon.

IMO, there'll be a large NORINCO ALCM and SOW order.

This depends on the cost structure and production system.

Currently, the information is limited. We don't know how much of this missile is of Pakistani origin (including the localization of all components). We also don't know the exact performance parameters of the missile. ------ This is all classified information, and official agencies will not release it. Even the information that is released often contains a lot of inaccurate information. This is standard practice for all military organizations.

============================================================

But, there is an approach in modern military industrial systems that Pakistan could consider.

Iran was among the first to adapt numerous civilian systems for military use, developing the Shahed-136 drone.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, civilian, consumer-grade small UAVs/FPVs have been widely used.
Chinese private companies have successfully controlled the cost of hypersonic missiles to around 1 million RMB per unit by using civilian technology standards and civilian components.

Pakistan could use this approach to drastically reduce the cost of this missile.

The essence of modern warfare is a contest of economic and productive capabilities.

 

[falcon34]

I think it depends on if they can scale up production, producing 100 missiles annually would be ideal but a more realistic number would be in the low dozens, perhaps if they can be augmented by lower cost missiles like the Rasoob and AZB 81LR perhaps that might not be as big of a issue.

Problem with Azb and Al rasoob is there range, Rafales would hiding in Central Indian airbases or any HVTs would be moved there.
It at least match the number of CM400s or would utilize the existing production capabilities to get at least a number above 100.

 

[SecularNationalist]

It's time to stop using mirages come on.

 

[safriz]

It's time to stop using mirages come on.

Chat GPT says the old papu can still lob missiles, why retire it ?

 

[maxpane]

Chat GPT says the old papu can still lob missiles, why retire it ?

View attachment 169816

still a class in white beard

 

[Gripen9]

Yet nobody ever complained about an entire PAF suqdron , named Black spiders. Kaalay Makray...
But people are angry about using the names of our regional Muslim historical rulers. far more related to our history and culture than ...Kaalay Makray

Should have been named Black Widows which is a very venomous spider. We also the Cobras , Cheetas, and mythical Griffins & Phoenixes

 

[Gripen9]

Perhaps. However, for the kinds of targets I envision for Taimoor I'd think 10 units are more than enough. There is the Azb series as well, which can be produced quite rapidly. It is quite interesting that in BuM Fatah-1s were launched but no Azbs (swift retort had Azbs). PAF was afraid of losing jets? prepares for hate lol.

I think Fatah rockets and those nuisance value Yiha loitering drones were lofted just for psychological impact and public consumption that we responded. The real high value ground targets were the Bernala IACCS and the S-400 radars that were targeted most probably on the 7th while the Air duel was taking place. PAF used CM-400s for those.

Just my 2 c

 

[ThoroughPro]

More than 600 targets. I am not kidding. In 600KM from Pakistani borders, all their key FOBs even some MOBs, missile storages, ammunition dump, Cantts, C2 nodes, ADS batteries and many more are available as target. Now it is upto war situation or planning of PAF what they actually pick as target.

Its range is EXACTLY 600 KM not an inch more.

 

[ThoroughPro]

why ,how did you make that assumption . ofc it will eventually be integrated with jf17

Thunders can carry CM400, they can carry RAAD and TAIMOOR too without any issues

 

[Goenitz]

Perhaps. However, for the kinds of targets I envision for Taimoor I'd think 10 units are more than enough. There is the Azb series as well, which can be produced quite rapidly. It is quite interesting that in BuM Fatah-1s were launched but no Azbs (swift retort had Azbs). PAF was afraid of losing jets? prepares for hate lol.

Also, I think the Army wanted its share of PR too.