PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

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Rehan Siraj
@RehanSiraj1

My new painting depicting J-10C of PAF No. 15 Sqn "Cobras". Old aircrafts of Cobras can be seen in a box formation.

11 X 16 inches (unframed) - watercolors

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J-10CE Dragon
PAF is now pressing ahead with replacing its legacy fighters. While it did not disclose a revised timeline, it appears that the complete shift away from the F-7 and Mirage III/5-series could take place in the short-term, i.e., the next three to five years, or 2030 at the latest. The new fighters will comprise of the J-10CE and the JF-17C (Block-III) in an interoperable high-low mix.

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Currently, the PAF has 20 J-10CE and 30 JF-17Cs, but Quwa expects that the PAF will acquire additional airframes across both fighter types through the 2020s.

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The PAF’s procurement roadmap for the rest of this decade – and possibly well into the 2030s – will center on the J-10CE and JF-17C/Block-III in a hi-and-lo mix, respectively. Both fighter types will be used for air-to-air and air-to-surface engagements,
with the JF-17C managing the bulk of stand-off weapon (SOW) deployment in the near-term. Combined, the two fighters will play the leading roles in supplanting the remainder of the PAF’s old F-7P/PG and Mirage III/5s.



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The PAF inducted the Chengdu J-10CE in March 2022 as part of a longstanding effort to acquire an off-the-shelf fighter to augment its F-16 and JF-17 fleets. Quwa was able to visually verify a total of 20 J-10CEs in PAF service, substantiating an apparent leak of the contract signed with AVIC, which also listed the sale of 240 PL-15E LRAAMs.

While Swift Retort catalyzed AHQ to sign the deal, the PAF sought an off-the-shelf fighter since at least 2015. It originally wanted to acquire additional new-built F-16C/Ds (for which it once aimed to build a fleet of at least 55 aircraft before the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir). Unfortunately, a chill in defence ties with Washington derailed those efforts, pushing AHQ to look to Russia and China.

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Realistically, the only viable alternative to the F-16s was the J-10CE. Not only did the PAF maintain close ties with China, but the J-10CE could also readily leverage many of the PAF’s existing air-to-air munitions stocks (like the SD-10 and PL-5E). The J-10CE was already interoperable with the JF-17. Moreover, AVIC also worked to deliver the first batch of fighters within only eight months after signing the contract, a major feat seeing how net-new inductions can take 18 to 24 months…


Dragons and Falcons - only the PAF can bring China and the USA together.....

Even with a lean body the PAF forges ahead with a big brain and a bigger heart. Contrast it with the IAF: a humungous body with a small brain and a smaller heart.....
 
is PAF dwindling down from 20 fighter squadron level
I think it is inevitable.

20 sq ambition was prior to a heavy AEW and HIMAAD component - not to mention smaller purchases like UAVs, Ground based EW equipment, high end radars (YLC-8E and TPS-77). This increase in capability has not come with the requisite increase in financial outlay for PAF. The next two years will give us a good idea, and after another 2 we will be able to say for certain.

Even if you set aside the financial aspect, these non-fighter purchases have replaced some of the missions on some of the squadrons to the point that if PAF does a new squadron mission appraisal, it may find a few excesses / areas over-covered on some of the traditional capability requirements. Therefore albeit still bitter, decreasing squadron strength is now a much more tolerable pill to swallow till the time our economy turns a corner.
 
is PAF dwindling down from 20 fighter squadron level

May dwindle further but if we even replace 2 F-7/Mirage sqds with just 1 J-10 sqd then PAF is getting smaller but more powerful.
 
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