PAF J-10CE News Updates and Discussions part ll

[Reichmarshal]

J 10 eventual nos. will be close to 90

 

[m52k85]

J 10 ce is a stop gap measure..
Our future is J 35 and pfx .

J-10s are not stop gap. As soon as you have a mission that needs a large enough munition or load that will not fit in the internals of a 5th gen, you either have the choice to compromise the LO of the 5th gen and mount externally OR use an existing cheaper to fly 4th gen. Top airforces around the world will continue to have 4th gen for this reason.

But the nuance is important here, if the question is:
1. What is the ideal force mix?
Answer: 2:1 or 3:1 4.5gen to 5th gen should serve PAF well in the coming future.
2. What is the best platform to get with the next $2bn available to PAF?
Answer: Most definately a handful of J-35s as opposed to more J-10s, since the 5th gen mission set is completely lacking as off now.

 

[rafale]

J 10 eventual nos. will be close to 90

by when? 2030s?

 

[Ali Yusuf]

As per my understanding, the PFX will be a new design. It may take several years to attain FOC, let alone be inducted in the numbers required.

The J-35AEs are 5th Gen and are going to be costly to induct and may be even costlier to operate. So their induction may be limited and paced to be used as per our operating budget. Numbers may reach 40 units, but could also be less, based on the robustness or the lack thereof of our economy.

In the meantime, it seems likely that to maintain operational effectiveness over the next few years, the J-10C would be inducted by the PAF in decent numbers.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

by when? 2030s?

The 20 J-10Cs were bought during last govt tenure. Its been about 5 years already. Not a single airframe added by current govt. Not a single big ticket addition across services anyways.

People at that time were saying, that PAF have ordered 36 now and it will be 90 by 2025. If we scroll back to several pages, we can even see 50 J-35s also added to PAF by 2025 lol.

I always contested those claims and proved to be right. There was no proof of "36" aircrafts. The first batch was always 20 aircrafts. Somebody made the number 36 out of their butt. As far as 90 is concerned, its again not going to the case. PAF may induct 2 more squadrons at most (if budget allows by early 2030s). PAF will also add lot of UCAVs and interceptor drones. Every manned aircraft being phased out will not be replaced by a manned aircraft.

Most airforces of the world had lot of numbers at the time of 2nd / 3rd gen aircrafts. With 4.5, 5th gen platforms the numbers game is reduced in all airforces world over. The cost of these platforms have gone way too higher + more unmanned systems coming into play for strike and other missions. The PAF traditionally "90" number does not apply anymore in today's circumstances involving money, capabilities & requirements.

 

[Ali_Baba]

As per my understanding, the PFX will be a new design.

This will never happen, ever ... This has been discussed to death here before. Pakistan lacks everything required to design, build, test, certify deploy any jet aircraft in Pakistan, let alone something that is stealthy.

 

[Ak01]

This will never happen, ever ... This has been discussed to death here before. Pakistan lacks everything required to design, build, test, certify deploy any jet aircraft in Pakistan, let alone something that is stealthy.

you got to think like sidhu. PFX will come to fruition...as a real estate project.

 

[hussain0216]

I think

Mirages, PGs are all going soon enough

F16s will be gone by 2040 at the latest, unless some are upgraded


JF17s of all blocks will form the spine of the PAF to do all the day to day donkey work



I was initially sure more J10s would be coming, but the more time that passes without new purchases, it seems we will go straight to the J35, which will be a long term purchase where we will over time see numbers reaching upwards of 100
This will be backed by Chinese AWACs and A.D


I still think we will see more JF17s and their is some sort of follow on programme, whether that's just a JF17 Block 4 or something more I don't know
But I am positive the PAF will want to have sort of homegrown fighter we can build and change on our own



I also think we will see KAAN in small numbers for a specific missions, which will eventually lead to a Gen 6 KAAN and then we will have the choice between a Chinese or Turkish Gen 6 fighter

 

[Irfan Baloch]

I have the minority view ( if not the only sole on this forum ) that the PAF will not induct any more J10CE's. They were an emergency buy and PAF really wanted to wait for the J-35AE to be ready but were forced into it due to circumstances of the Rafale procurement.

I have the view that once the J-35AE starts landing in Pakistan and there is enough of them, that PAF will sell the J10CE back to China (or another J10CE operator if any come on line)

na man, air forces don’t work that way (let me sound like I know what I’m talking about ).

platform selection, procurement, training and then actually integrating a jet into doctrine is a long, deliberate process. even if something is bought as a “stop gap”, it doesn’t just get flipped after a few years. these platforms stay because the air force builds an entire ecosystem around them.

think about it for a moment personnel training, simulators, maintenance chains, infrastructure changes, and then war doctrine evolving around that platform so it fits into a net-centric environment. you don’t go through all that and then casually sell the jets off.

and in this case, the Chengdu J-10C has already proven itself and become a bit of a flagship for the PAF. It Buttfucked IAF to the Core, sent its Godi Media on life support. no amount of songs and movies will wipe off those images of multiple IAF crashed jets including French and Russian jets.

it’s not just another squadron filler anymore. whether people like it or not, it has made enough impact to get attention beyond the region, especially against platforms like Dassault Rafale, Sukhoi Su-30 and Dassault Mirage 2000.

right now, it actually sits at the top end of the PAF fleet alongside the newer General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon 50/52 blocks, not below them. and more importantly, it fits into a very practical role providing PAF the longest Dong in the shape of PL-15.
PAF got to go through the process of replacing legacy platforms like the Dassault Mirage III/5 and Chengdu F-7 over time, with the CAC/PAC JF-17 Thunder.

now compare that to the Shenyang J-35 — completely different category. expensive, limited numbers, high-end role. it’s not something you buy to replace everything else. it complements the fleet, it doesn’t wipe out an entire tier. it will be used for a special IAF anal probing which will leave visible marks on the Indian aholes.

Replacing J-10 also doesn’t make sense financially or operationally to invest all that time and money into J-10C induction, get real-world validation out of it, and then just offload it early. air forces don’t work like that, if anything, combat-proven platforms get leaned on more, not less.

so yeah, J-35 might come in and become the top-tier asset, but J-10C going away quickly? doesn’t really line up with how fleet planning or force structure works.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

I think

Mirages, PGs are all going soon enough

F16s will be gone by 2040 at the latest, unless some are upgraded


JF17s of all blocks will form the spine of the PAF to do all the day to day donkey work



I was initially sure more J10s would be coming, but the more time that passes without new purchases, it seems we will go straight to the J35, which will be a long term purchase where we will over time see numbers reaching upwards of 100
This will be backed by Chinese AWACs and A.D


I still think we will see more JF17s and their is some sort of follow on programme, whether that's just a JF17 Block 4 or something more I don't know
But I am positive the PAF will want to have sort of homegrown fighter we can build and change on our own



I also think we will see KAAN in small numbers for a specific missions, which will eventually lead to a Gen 6 KAAN and then we will have the choice between a Chinese or Turkish Gen 6 fighter

JF-17 cant do what J-10C is offering. J-35 wont be able to replace the entire 4.5 Gen tier. there are not enough resources. all three arms are competing for the defence budget and within each service there are different requirements.

 

[hussain0216]

JF-17 cant do what J-10C is offering. J-35 wont be able to replace the entire 4.5 Gen tier. there are not enough resources. all three arms are competing for the defence budget and within each service there are different requirements.

I would agree with you, and multiple people assumed when we got the J10 initially a few years ago that by 2026 we would have had at least 50 or so now with the aim of inducting anywhere between 60-100, supported by the JF17s and F16s until the J35s could come

But here we are in 2026 and we still only have our initial order of 20 J10s

The only way it kind of would make sense, is if the PAF were confident they could defeat the IAF with the resources available
And until IAF obtained more Rafael's which could be years at the rate they go at, PAF wouldn't need to get more J10s until other platforms are retired


So if IAF get Rafael's let say in 2028, we would likely match their induction with more J10s or J35s and until then we can wait

 

[Falcon26]

you got to think like sidhu. PFX will come to fruition...as a real estate project.

Welcome back, buddy. Good to see you posting again.

 

[Falcon26]

J-10C, by virtue of it being PAF’s most capable and advanced fighter plane, cannot be a stop-gap addition. The failure to induct more of the type probably has more to do with financial constraints than PAF’s interest in the plane.

 

[Oscar]

J-10C, by virtue of it being PAF’s most capable and advanced fighter plane, cannot be a stop-gap addition. The failure to induct more of the type probably has more to do with financial constraints than PAF’s interest in the plane.

The impact of the Iran war on oil prices on Pakistan is being severely downplayed/fudged by the current government.

 

[xiao]

Here's something out of the ordinary: the real early prototype of the J-10 fighter. The J-10 actually had its air intake redesigned over engine issues. To fit the AL-31 turbofan engine, it was modified into the very intake design we all know on the mass-produced J-10 and J-10A. Had the WS-10 Taihang engine been available earlier, this is exactly what the J-10 would have looked like