PAF Negotiating For L-15 LIFT Aircrafts

PAF Revising Advanced Air Training Program​

March 2024 QUWA

The PAF’s entire fighter fleet will shift to 4-generation and 4-generation-plus aircraft by the end of this decade, with the bulk of the fleet leveraging AESA radars, HMD/S, and integrated ECM. Thus, the PAF sought a dedicated LIFT to familiarize its new pilots with these technologies before jointing a frontline J-10CE, JF-17, or F-16 squadron. Beyond 2030, these new pilots may join a stealth fighter unit.


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The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is reportedly speaking to the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) for the procurement of Hongdu L-15 lead-in-fighter-trainers (LIFT). The reports emerged from the 2023 Dubai Air Show, where AVIC officials indicated that the PAF was now seeking the L-15.

PAF interest in the L-15 is not new or recent. In fact, the PAF publicly revealed that it was seeking a LIFT in 2017, following a period of testing numerous options, such as the Leonardo M-346, Aero L-159, and the Hongdu L-15, among others. In late 2018, the PAF revealed that it wanted an aircraft with an afterburning engine, multi-mode radar, and tactical data-link (TDL) system.

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Being the sole option equipped with both features, the Hongdu L-15B rose as the likeliest choice, especially considering it is free of any ITAR-regulated subsystems and inputs.

In 2015, the PAF stated that it was interested in using the JF-17B as a lead-in-fighter-trainer (LIFT); and it was frank about its disinterest in a smaller aircraft for the role. Its main concern was that the dedicated LIFT like an L-15 would have high operating costs, potentially at-par with the JF-17.

Aermacchi M-346 Master
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However, in 2017, the PAF pivoted from the JF-17B to exploring dedicated LIFT designs, namely the AVIC L-15B and Leonardo M-346. In 2023, the PAF reportedly began negotiations for the L-15B. PAF raised a new LIFT unit, designated “Shooter Squadron,” at PAF Base M.M. Alam located in Mianwali. Hilal, a publication belonging to Inter-Services Public Relations’ (ISPR), explained that the new unit was responsible for preparing pilots fresh off the K-8 trainer for conversion to the F-16 and JF-17…

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L-15B​

L-15-series is an AJT platform powered by two Motor Sich AI-222-25F afterburning turbofan engines. With a top speed of Mach 1.4, the L-15A can serve as a LIFT to bridge flight trainees to fighter flying as well as undertaking air-to-air and air-to-surface combat missions.

The L-15B retains the core of the L-15, but reportedly adds an updated onboard electronics suite with a passive electronically-scanned array (PESA) radar with a range of 75 km. Previous L-15B mock-ups have shown it equipped or compatible with dedicated electronic warfare (EW) jamming pods.

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With a payload of 3,500 kg spread across nine hardpoints, the L-15B can utilize munitions such as the SD-10 active radar-guided beyond visual-range air-to-air missiles, LT-2 laser and LS-6 precision-guided bombs.

AVIC also configured the L-15B with an X-band passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar providing a maximum range of over 75 km. The L-15B’s avionics suite comprises of a head-up display (HUD), colour multifunction displays (MFD) in both the front and rear glass cockpits, and other subsystems found multi-role combat aircraft. The flight control system leverages a fully digital three-axis fly-by-wire (FBW) system paired to a hands-on-throttle-and-stick (HOTAS) control suite.

Finally, and perhaps most notably, the L-15B is fully capable of air-to-air and air-to-surface combat. It can deploy the SD-10 beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile (AAM), the PL-10E within-visual-range (WVR) AAM, laser-guided bombs (LGB), precision-guided bombs (PGB), and rocket pods. The L-15B can even use a targeting pod and, alternatively, carry an electronic countermeasures (ECM) pod. With a combat radius of 500 km, the L-15B can serve as a functional multirole fighter.

Currently, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as the largest overseas buyer of the L-15, with an order of 12 aircraft and an option for 36 additional units. According to the Tawazun Council, which oversees the UAE’s defence procurement, the contract for the initial 12 units was priced at $440 million USD, which includes technical support equipment and infrastructure.[1]

Besides the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), the L-15 has been adopted by the Zambian Air Force. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) has been working to market the L-15 as a dual training and entry-level fighter to the developing world. The L-15 competes for the same markets as the Aero Vodochody L-159 and Yakovlev Yak-130.

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When discussing its LIFT requirements, the PAF highlighted three core requirements: afterburning engine, multi-mode radar, and tactical datalink (TDL)…

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L-15B

Compared to the J-10CE and JF-17B/C, the L-15B is less certain as the PAF has yet to officially confirm if it is actively pursuing the platform. That said, the L-15B can operate as a functional fighter aircraft, one that could deploy the SD-10 LRAAM. This could be valuable as an internal security or point air defence asset behind the J-10CE, JF-17C, F-16, and JF-17 Block-I/II.
 
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New Super Mushshak Aircraft Into the Tutk Air Force Inventory5 SMK (Super Mushshak) Aircrafts have been added to the 2nd Main Jet Base Command inventory


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PAF Revising Advanced Air Training Program​

March 2024 QUWA

The PAF’s entire fighter fleet will shift to 4-generation and 4-generation-plus aircraft by the end of this decade, with the bulk of the fleet leveraging AESA radars, HMD/S, and integrated ECM. Thus, the PAF sought a dedicated LIFT to familiarize its new pilots with these technologies before jointing a frontline J-10CE, JF-17, or F-16 squadron. Beyond 2030, these new pilots may join a stealth fighter unit.

Some questions that this para brings up:

- is the PAF going to retire 150 Mirage III/V and F-7PG fighters by 2030?
- How is it going to be able to afford to replace 150 fighters in the next 5 years? What is the estimated expense and with what types? More JF-17 Blk3, J-10CE? J-31? Each has it's own costs, each more than the other. So how will the PAF replace such a large number in the next 5 years?
- "bulk of the fleet leveraging AESA radars"..well as of now that's limited to less than 50-55 jets (24 J-10CE and 30 odd Jf-17 Block 3s?). So how will PAF get another 150 fighters with AESA radars in another 5 years to make the bulk of it's fleet with AESA radars?
- What is the plan for approximately 120 JF-17 Block 1 and Block 2 to be upgraded to Block 3 standard. Is it even feasible? What is the timeline for upgrading them? How costly will it be?
- From what I've read here, the plan is to upgrade JF-17 Block 1 to 2 standard and not 3. That would mean a mechanically scanning array radar, not AESA.
- What about the 70 odd F-16s? How will they be upgraded this decade? Turkey is supposedly the only option, but they themselves have just started with their Ozgur upgrade and that too only for their Block 30s. So how will the PAF upgrade it's F-16 ADF, MLUs and Block 52s?

Without clear answers to these questions, I'm afraid this para from QUWA is simply not feasible.
 
Some questions that this para brings up:

- is the PAF going to retire 150 Mirage III/V and F-7PG fighters by 2030?
- How is it going to be able to afford to replace 150 fighters in the next 5 years? What is the estimated expense and with what types? More JF-17 Blk3, J-10CE? J-31? Each has it's own costs, each more than the other. So how will the PAF replace such a large number in the next 5 years?
- "bulk of the fleet leveraging AESA radars"..well as of now that's limited to less than 50-55 jets (24 J-10CE and 30 odd Jf-17 Block 3s?). So how will PAF get another 150 fighters with AESA radars in another 5 years to make the bulk of it's fleet with AESA radars?
- What is the plan for approximately 120 JF-17 Block 1 and Block 2 to be upgraded to Block 3 standard. Is it even feasible? What is the timeline for upgrading them? How costly will it be?
- From what I've read here, the plan is to upgrade JF-17 Block 1 to 2 standard and not 3. That would mean a mechanically scanning array radar, not AESA.
- What about the 70 odd F-16s? How will they be upgraded this decade? Turkey is supposedly the only option, but they themselves have just started with their Ozgur upgrade and that too only for their Block 30s. So how will the PAF upgrade it's F-16 ADF, MLUs and Block 52s?

Without clear answers to these questions, I'm afraid this para from QUWA is simply not feasible.
I think F-7PG are being retired first .
Mirage 3 n then Mirage 5 . Mirage timeline can be exteded for 3-5 years i guess ( atleast for half or few squadrons ) . 2030 is not like final for Mirages , may be it can be exteded for upto 3-5 years . So replacing option may get 11 years 2025-2035 . Also may be initially we get some shortage of fighters ( retired vs Inducted ) but can be completed till 2040 i.e 16 Years from now i.e 5 more Years ( Just my Opinion ) .
 
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Some questions that this para brings up:

- is the PAF going to retire 150 Mirage III/V and F-7PG fighters by 2030?
- How is it going to be able to afford to replace 150 fighters in the next 5 years? What is the estimated expense and with what types? More JF-17 Blk3, J-10CE? J-31? Each has it's own costs, each more than the other. So how will the PAF replace such a large number in the next 5 years?
- "bulk of the fleet leveraging AESA radars"..well as of now that's limited to less than 50-55 jets (24 J-10CE and 30 odd Jf-17 Block 3s?). So how will PAF get another 150 fighters with AESA radars in another 5 years to make the bulk of it's fleet with AESA radars?
- What is the plan for approximately 120 JF-17 Block 1 and Block 2 to be upgraded to Block 3 standard. Is it even feasible? What is the timeline for upgrading them? How costly will it be?
- From what I've read here, the plan is to upgrade JF-17 Block 1 to 2 standard and not 3. That would mean a mechanically scanning array radar, not AESA.
- What about the 70 odd F-16s? How will they be upgraded this decade? Turkey is supposedly the only option, but they themselves have just started with their Ozgur upgrade and that too only for their Block 30s. So how will the PAF upgrade it's F-16 ADF, MLUs and Block 52s?

Without clear answers to these questions, I'm afraid this para from QUWA is simply not feasible.

More J10Cs (good possibility of anything up to 100 J10s eventually)

Possibly more JF17 Block 3s, and a upgrade program for all block 2s to block 3 levels

Block 1s could be left as is and used heavily for day to day work load and eventually retired

L15s could be purchased for lift

j31, KAAN and a possible jF17 program to build on the success of the jf17 program
 
Some questions that this para brings up:

- is the PAF going to retire 150 Mirage III/V and F-7PG fighters by 2030?
- How is it going to be able to afford to replace 150 fighters in the next 5 years? What is the estimated expense and with what types? More JF-17 Blk3, J-10CE? J-31? Each has it's own costs, each more than the other. So how will the PAF replace such a large number in the next 5 years?
- "bulk of the fleet leveraging AESA radars"..well as of now that's limited to less than 50-55 jets (24 J-10CE and 30 odd Jf-17 Block 3s?). So how will PAF get another 150 fighters with AESA radars in another 5 years to make the bulk of it's fleet with AESA radars?
- What is the plan for approximately 120 JF-17 Block 1 and Block 2 to be upgraded to Block 3 standard. Is it even feasible? What is the timeline for upgrading them? How costly will it be?
- From what I've read here, the plan is to upgrade JF-17 Block 1 to 2 standard and not 3. That would mean a mechanically scanning array radar, not AESA.
- What about the 70 odd F-16s? How will they be upgraded this decade? Turkey is supposedly the only option, but they themselves have just started with their Ozgur upgrade and that too only for their Block 30s. So how will the PAF upgrade it's F-16 ADF, MLUs and Block 52s?

Without clear answers to these questions, I'm afraid this para from QUWA is simply not feasible.

First off, J10Cs/J31s belong in a distinct league and are not intended to be substituted for F7PGs or Mirage.

F7PGs will be replaced by L15Bs, and Mirage slots would be fiiled-up by Jf17s (I/II/III).

According to the following (likely, as previously mentioned in another thread), seems PAF has already established the phasing out program and timeframe for F7PGs/Mirages by the 2030s.

PAF would probably consist of following (UAVs not included).

Post 2025 - 30

11 Sqdn (~200) -JF17s (I/II/III) BLK I & II will get upgrade to III standards
03 Sqdn (~60) - J10Cs
04 Sqdn (~75) - F16s (MLU-ed & BLK52)
02 Sqdn (~40) - L15Bs
02 Sqdn (~40) - Mirage (ROSE III)

22 Sqds, mix of 4-4.5 gen aircrafts (BVR capable)


Post 2030 - 35

11 Sqdn (~200) -JF17s (I/II/III)
04 Sqdn (~80) - J10Cs
04 Sqdn (~75) - F16s (MLU-ed & BLK52) If upgraded to "V" or otherwise only BLK 52
03 Sqdn (~60) - L15Bs
01 Sqdn (~20) - J31s
01 Sqdn (~20) - KAAN (subject to Indigenized engine)

22-24 Sqds, mix of 4.5 - 5 gen aircrafts
 
More J10Cs (good possibility of anything up to 100 J10s eventually)

Possibly more JF17 Block 3s, and a upgrade program for all block 2s to block 3 levels

Block 1s could be left as is and used heavily for day to day work load and eventually retired

L15s could be purchased for lift

j31, KAAN and a possible jF17 program to build on the success of the jf17 program

Obviously the J-10CE is the most obvious option, but buying another 70 odd J-10CEs will cost anywhere between USD 4-5 billion at least. Given Pakistan's state of finances, that will be a huge challenge.

As of now haven't seen any plan to set up an assembly line for J-10CE at PAC Kamra, so at least on the face of it, this is not happening soon.

So for sure, there will be no way to replace 150 Mirage-III/V and F-7PG by the end of 2030.

My guess is we'll see at most another 24 J-10CE purchased off the shelf from China, enough to replace 1 more squadron of Mirages or F-7PGs. And maybe another order for 20-30 JF-17 Block 3s to replace another squadron of Mirage/F-7PGs.

JF-17s Block 1s without a SLEP and avionics/radar upgrade will be pretty much out of airframe life in another 5 years, given it has a TTL of 4000 hours and has been in service for nearly 17 years already.

Replacing 50 of those JF-17 Block 1s will become an extremely costly affair in the next 6-10 years, which I don't think the PAF will want that way. They'd much rather upgrade them and keep them going for another 15 years at least. Even upgrades cost money if they're thorough, but it's more cost effective than retiring them and looking to replace them with a new type.
 
Obviously the J-10CE is the most obvious option, but buying another 70 odd J-10CEs will cost anywhere between USD 4-5 billion at least. Given Pakistan's state of finances, that will be a huge challenge.

As of now haven't seen any plan to set up an assembly line for J-10CE at PAC Kamra, so at least on the face of it, this is not happening soon.

So for sure, there will be no way to replace 150 Mirage-III/V and F-7PG by the end of 2030.

My guess is we'll see at most another 24 J-10CE purchased off the shelf from China, enough to replace 1 more squadron of Mirages or F-7PGs. And maybe another order for 20-30 JF-17 Block 3s to replace another squadron of Mirage/F-7PGs.

JF-17s Block 1s without a SLEP and avionics/radar upgrade will be pretty much out of airframe life in another 5 years, given it has a TTL of 4000 hours and has been in service for nearly 17 years already.

Replacing 50 of those JF-17 Block 1s will become an extremely costly affair in the next 6-10 years, which I don't think the PAF will want that way. They'd much rather upgrade them and keep them going for another 15 years at least. Even upgrades cost money if they're thorough, but it's more cost effective than retiring them and looking to replace them with a new type.
You just copy paste your old saved comment with very little alterations.
This is the 15th or 16th time I am reading same rhetoric of your on different threads.
And BTW don't worry... PAF has a habbit of getting what they want no matter what is the economic situation of Pakistan. History is proof of it.
Funds will be arranged,... You don't know the deep state and "hidden economy" of a certain party.
No need to concern yourself... You can sleep with peace now.
 
This is a good move. Get say 36 L-15s. Replace all the T-37s with the K-8

Have a MFI-17/K-8/L-15 Fighter pilot stream.
 

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