Just listened to your podcast. You guys were talking about licensing Pak designed UAV and loitering munition designs to countries like Brazil, Poland, Czechia, etc, and potential issues around supply during wartime, why not go for the obvious option, contract out mass production of Pak designs to Chinese firms? We already have strong relationships with the Chinese military/industrial complex, and supply during and outside wartime would be far quicker and easier. Also, there was reference to the lack of strategic depth in Pakistan, are there any serious consideration given to perhaps relocating airbases further west, or perhaps building new air bases further west to avoid the PAF becoming grounded under intense saturation attacks by indian brahmos strikes?
Absolutely, good call. OTOH, the value of working with the others (Brazil, Poland, Czech, Hungary) is that it gets Pakistan into other places. We can create a pathway for R&D collaboration as well as getting their industrial expertise and systems into Pakistan. We should've called it out clearly, but there was a dual-economic intent the idea as well. But from a purely military supply PoV, yeah, outsourcing to China is a good idea, but it should be done in concert with others. Never a bad idea to maintain a diverse supplier pool.
The strategic depth issue is tough to navigate as India's SSCMs (and later HSCMs) will increase in range as well. The PAF needs to think more along the lines of dispersal ops, so ensuring future fighters can operate from our motorways and/or develop specially designed dispersal-centric UCAVs will be key.
People are questioning HQ-9 capabilities but not paying attention to Pakistan striking Indian targets at will under the protection of S-400. PAF/PA hit more sites/more targets than the Indians. What does that tell one about the efficacy of S-400?
It goes without saying that Pakistan needs more batteries.
The recent Ukrainian kamikaze drone attacks on Russian strategic bombers is something to keep in mind. However, in this case, the drones were launched from close by so a covert operation.
It's less to do with HQ-9BE in itself and more with the fact that Pakistan's GBADS was still a work in progress by the time of the conflict.
IIRC, the PAF SAM acquisitions started with ACM Babar, so a lead time of at most three years. AHQ started with the long-range, high-altitude coverages, but its work on the lower altitude, shorter-range area was not as well built (relative to high-altitude/long-range). We go from HQ-9BE to Spada 2000 Plus -- there was a big gap.
I would NOT pin this on negligence on the PAF's part; only ONE other country dealt with supersonic missiles, and NO ONE dealt with them with the lack of strategic depth we had.
There are times when you run into bad luck and this was one of them. Good thing it was a limited conflict; Pakistan can now adapt, and (as we get into episode 2), it has very valuable real-world data on the BrahMos.
We discuss this in Ep 2, but the doors will open and Pakistan is in a position to adapt defensively.
All that said, there is a more policy level question of whether the delay between May 7th and May 10th was correct. There are now debates (e.g., Ejaz Haider) on whether the right next step would've been to escalate right after or during the IAF strikes on May 7th instead of waiting and calling for diplomacy (which indirectly gave India the license to keep attacking Pakistan).
Given the CJCSC's statements recently, I think in any future conflict, Pakistan will escalate tit-for-tat to Indian strikes, and not overtly call for diplomacy any more.
