Pakistan-Af: Operation Khyber Storm

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الحمداللہ۔ Hopefully now we can stop the chest thumping and childish talks of coercing a regime change in Kabul or taking Wakhan corridor by force or creating a 10 Km buffer zone inside Aghanistan along the Durand line.

TTA are best hope of peace in the region!
Meanwhile let's continue to hunt the TTP fitna.
اللہ پاکستان اور افغانستان کا حامی و ناصر ہو۔
 
Looks like Qatar and Turkey are putting pressure...

This is very strategic thinking to bring Qatar and Turkey into the mixed. The Afghans might not respect Pakistan, but they will surely respect Qatar. They won't hesistate to fight Pakistan, but will think thrice going against the Qataris and Turkey. This is the playbook that Indians tried to pull in May 2025 - but got their bases bombed and their air force look like some backwater incompetent against a much superior Air Force - PAF. I now understand why Pakistan didn't release many of the war footage from May 2025 war. They didn't want to provide BDA intel to the Indians. The stories I've heard coming out of Kashmir makes me very proud that PAF killed many Indians - and high ranking ones too.
 
Won't hold for long, if Taliban were serious then this situation will never has risen to begin with, In fact I suspect that Indians will try to rearm the TTP/AT in coming months while Taliban will reposition themselves along the border, maybe they will use this ceasefire to finish of the weak resistance mounted by former ANA in remote parts of Afghanistan. I think next round will be a 2 front conflict, using the pressure from the West, Indians in the East will try to do something because they are still hurt from their beating from May.
 
again even if they were cricketers what stopping them from being involved with the terror activities
And also, what the heck these 'cricketers' were doing at the terrorist camp in the midnight? Their claims are all lies these liar Afghandus are infamous to always make.
 
No one can be trusted with the entire geography of Afghanistan, especially when it is clear and proven time and again that whoever is at the forefront of leading Afghanistan, at any given time, practices a form of religion, which is very extreme and starkly contrasts with the form of religion that is practised in Pakistan or Iran.



1. The Pashtun belt in Afghanistan (south & southeast), especially provinces like Nangarhar, Kunar, Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Kandahar, Zabul, Helmand, align with Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa & Balochistan.

2. The Baloch areas (in southwestern Afghanistan: Nimruz, parts of Helmand, etc.) align with Pakistani Balochistan.
Not a sane policy. You'd need to eradicate their way of thinking before even thinking about an anchluss type of merger. Maybe one way would be if they want trade and economic benefits that Pakistan can provide them, they'd need to swear an allegiance to Pakistan and it has to be on the Quran. They will be Pakistani Subjects in but name and title. The Romans had a policy where they gave Roman citizenship to those cities closest to the city of Rome. The ones further away obtained patronage, and the really far away received partnerships. stick and carrot can achieve the results Pakistan is looking for. It has to shut out the Indians from Afghanistan. The Indians are playing the same game as the Iranians in the Middle East - or they did until their losses in Syria forced them back to Iran. Indians - unlike our Persian brothers - who had support of the local Shia and some Sunni populations and stood by their Muslim brothers against the Zionists - the Indians see this as a zero sum game where they want to bleed Pakistan so it becomes a Syria to them where they can push it around militarily. There's a darker angle at play with the Indians - its to snatch war booty - ie Muslim women for all kinds of disgusting, vile reasons. Not many might not know but in the 90s the Indians looked towards the Serbs treatment of the Bosnian Muslim women ie rape camps etc. They cheerfully supported it. They would like nothing more to do that to Pakistanis specifically Punjabis and Sindhis and Northern Pakistanis. This is a civilizational battle that many in Pakistan seems not to understand or care as much. They still see the Indians as fellow South Asians - but make no mistake - the rhetoric coming out of Indians is one of civilizational war - against the hated "Mlecchas" - the backwards tribes that took apart their cherish civizational brick by brick. In their minds - they can only truly become powerful is when Pakistan is reliquished.
 
My 2 cents:

  • Pakistan's trump card here is the trade route blockage. IMO, it should be kept blocked for now. Even if it's allowed at some point, only the most basic goods should be allowed and inspected for what could be used against us.
  • All Afghans should be sent back, which will further put resource constraints within Afghanistan due to a lack of trade goods coming in.
  • Pakistan needs to continuously monitor Indian defense equipment landing in Afghanistan and find any excuse to take it out before it becomes a true threat.
 
The Pak side has to remain extremely vigilant with constant surveillance and HUNINT. Any slightest hint of any "monkey or rat tricks", and the pounding should immediately start.....
 
Wrong. The Jihadists of the 80s weren't nationalistic and neither were the 90's Taliban. These new breed are the product of American occupation where they merged Afghan nationalism with their religious zeal. Many of them were former ANA who always had a problem with Pakistan. Not to mention that the Americans and her allies took out the most Islamic Taliban leaders meanwhile the ones with the Nationalism flavor were largely not touched as much. You lack clear understanding in how societies change over time - especially those in wars/conflicts. No one is left untouched. The culture changes. American occupation changed many Iraqis and Afghans where they are more agnostic towards religion. The Asians went through the same experience under the US occupations - adopting American/Western habits. No different than our forefathers losing in 1857. I was shocked initially when I used to come across Iraqis eating pork and behaving very Un-Islamically back in the 00s. It made sense to me as they went experienced some of the most vicious cycle of violence which naturally turned many away from Islam. Not to mentioned many of them saw their own people thoroughly defeated and occupied by a culture that so sharply contrasted with their own that many decided to join the "superior" winning side and adopt its culture. Food for thought...
Mullah Omar said the same thing to Pakistan that he'd never accept the border so this isn't fully true. The nationalist/tribal sentiment is sort of embedded part of that society and then became a political force around the 40-60s.

Only the Arab fighters were purely ideological but many Afghan foot soldiers had/have strong tribalistic/nationalistic sentiment
 
Mullah Omar said the same thing to Pakistan that he'd never accept the border so this isn't fully true. The nationalist/tribal sentiment is sort of embedded part of that society and then became a political force around the 40-60s.

Only the Arab fighters were purely ideological but many Afghan foot soldiers had/have strong tribalistic/nationalistic sentiment
that's a fair assessment. If you haven't - read Eric Margolis book "War at the top of the war." Great insight to the Arab fighters in the 90s who made mincemeat of Indian cowards fighting in Indian Occupied Kashmir.
 
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Looks like the Pak side has trapped the Hindutva-Taliban combo quite well this time....

Conjecture-wise, the US policymakers are hell-bent on solving the critical minerals supply chain issue as a top strategic matter. Pakistan has nicely pitched herself into this turf. And, Bharat is trying to create a 2-front condition for Pakistan! No wonder, President Trump has publicly stated he wants to get involved. It means the end of the Taliban regime....

Now, hopefully, it'll be like Taliban vs Taliban due to Hindutva.....
 
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Strangely, the Turkish Intelligence Chief, Dr Ibrahim Kalin (the rightmost person in the following picture), himself a professor of Islamic theological studies, was present during the negotiation!

1760836414621.png

LIVE | Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to a ceasefire, Qatari Foreign Ministry - ARY News Live​

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@Signalian bahi what is your take on having two frozen conflicts one on the east and one to the west?
It is extremely risky to fight a war on two fronts, but both fronts are contrasting.

The eastern front is made up of LOC, working boundary and International border. This front has war bells of of conventional warfare for which the majority of Pakistan Army, PAF, and PN are poised against India. The two strike Corps, and then 5th, 30th as well as 31st Corps are the maneuver Corps which have armored and mechanized formations. The terrain in Punjab and Sindh also supports gunship operations as backup for ground forces. PAF has all their major AFBs in these regions and the bulk of PAF's strike aircraft are stationed here. PAF F-16s are permanently stationed in Punjab and Sindh, the J-10s along with Mirages are stationed in Punjab for strikes towards IOK, Indian Punjab and southeast direction towards Jaisalmer in the desert.

The LOC is a heavily defended area, which can turn volatile in minutes as there are many LOC violations on regular basis from India. When Indian troops in IOK fire at AJK, PA gives a befitting response, so India loses a few soldiers to kill a few on Pakistani side. This isn't working well for India. The working boundary at Sialkot has firing incidents but are rare. Even then both these "demarcations" are backed up with conventional infantry, artillery and armored formations. The IB from Lahore to Badin is patrolled regularly by Rangers on pakistan side and BSF on Indian side. That leaves two more regions: Siachen in north and Rann of Kutch in south. Siachen is an extreme example of LOC- all the offensives of 80s and 90s don't occur anymore, both sides know they will lose troops to enemy fire while the troops are already battling -50'C weather on both sides. The Rann of Kutch is being defended by three forces from three sides by three forces - Army from north, Rangers from west and Marines from south, where the creek area ends. India is angling towards creating a new issue in Rann of Kutch.

This is why a conventional war on eastern front is NOT favored by India, as India hardly gets the advantage it wants.

Now, the western front is another story. This was a low priority border for Pakistan except in 80's. In 2000s, it has gained momentum in unconventional warfare and this is where India wants to defeat Pakistan. Early on, PA shifted reserve formations of Strike Corps, especially 14th ID from II Strike Corps and 17th ID from 1 Strike Corps to Swat and FATA regions. That made Indians very happy, which ended in the 2001-2 fiasco where India lost troops bringing them towards the border. Pakistan told Uncle Sam look what our naughty neighbor is doing and Uncle Sam sitting in Afghanistan told India to back off, as they were getting assistance from Pakistan to target AQ.

Thus later on, Pakistan raised two more FC formations, one in KPK and one in Baluchistan. This angered the Indians as now Pakistan won't be moving its forces towards west from east. Furthermore, Pakistan started FC in CT and COIN ops with upgraded weaponry, vehicles and communication systems. Later Pakistan formed CTD to help Police all over Pakistan against TTP and BLA.

There was one defective side though, the AH-1 Cobras couldn't perform ops in high altitude areas like ParaChinar so Pakistan chose AH-1Z, then T-129 and now Z-10, but by this time the nature of warfare had changed again. India now wanted Pakistan to lose soldiers on western border without directly involving Indian troops unlike LOC, so TTP was funded. If you calculate, for one terrorism incident by TTP, India spends roughly USD ~40-50,000. Thats a huge cost if you multiply it by incidents in a year. That is why the annual budget of ISI is peanuts compared to RAW.

In this recent Afghan-Pak war, it was FC fighting on all fronts, the regular Army was back up incase FC falls back, but that never happened. The Afghan border posts were also captured by FC, not PA or SSG. So Pakistan's plan worked regarding FC as a fighting formation in conventional and unconventional warfare. Somethings that Rangers aren't even exposed to on the eastern border. This is why FC was given Type-69 tanks and 25-pounder howitzers (WWII era) along with RPGs, mortars, etc.

This shows that in an event of war where India and Afghanistan attack Pakistan simultaneously, the advantage that India thought it could have has been nullified to a great extent. PA on eastern border can thrash Indian Army while FC on western border can thrash Afghan Taliban and TTP.

The terrain on western border is a very big challenge. PA needs lots of helis, lots of secure bases and posts. The mountain region is treacherous for transport by road or on dirt tracks unlike LOC. The LOC has lots of vegetation (trees etc), where as western mountains are bare and rocky. Patrolling becomes an issue. Even communication becomes an issue, its not easy for transmission signals to pass through rocks and inside caves. Taliban have been using Thuraya satcom phones since 2000s, but they have limitations also. If FC gets smaller fennecs for patrolling or QRF then that would be helpful otherwise traversing on vehicles is limited in mountains.

Now, the Durand line itself is an issue. Afghans and Indians want it to remain an invisible line, not a International border. So a diplomatic front in Qatar needs to be opened to ensure that everyone recognizes it as a border, otherwise no one will adhere to international laws or agreements terming the line isn't a border.

TTP claims KPK as their land, Taliban wants to lay the same claim too. There is religious extremism which drives human resources from Pakistan tribal areas (KPK and Baluch) and Afghanistan to join TTP and BLA (missing persons saga). This recruiting drive has to end. Any military force has a budget and can sustain a certain number of troops. This isnt applicable on terrorist outfits. They can instantly swell in numbers and then go thin as sides are changed. Pakistan is killing disgruntled, then religiously brainwashed Pakistanis (Afghan mixed family) and Afghanis and lastly vengeful Afghanis who cant bear the fact they have beaten superpowers but cant beat Pakistan.

This is why this war on western border has no end in sight.

The major challenge in every war is technology. Firstly, the one with cutting edge systems will have an upper hand and secondly how can the use of such technology bring success in unconventional warfare like western border.
 
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