Eagle Eye
@zarrar_11PK
Why the Istanbul Talks Collapsed


The breakdown of the Türkiye negotiations had nothing to do with Pakistan’s diplomacy. The real reason was internal fractures and backstage power-play inside the Afghan regime.

From the very first session it became clear that the Afghan delegation was not negotiating with one voice. Three competing blocs - Kandahar, Kabul and Khost - were all feeding separate instructions to the delegates.

The Turning Point

When the talks reached the stage of written guarantees on TTP safe havens, the Kandahar faction had signalled quiet willingness to proceed - but then, during a break, the Kabul group staged a manufactured complication:
They suddenly insisted that
_“no agreement can be signed unless the United States joins as a formal guarantor.”_

This was not part of the agenda, nor had it been raised in previous rounds. Afghan Social Media accounts reporting about US drones is testimony to this fact.

The move caught the mediators by surprise because this wasn’t about security - it was about reopening a financial corridor through Washington.

They tried to turn a bilateral-security negotiation into a three-party donor-linked arrangement - essentially transforming the security file into a bargaining chip for aid.

Internal Drama Behind Closed Doors

Witnesses say there was visible confusion on the Afghan benches. One delegate was taking instructions on a handwritten chit from a handler sitting outside the official delegation. Another repeatedly left the room to speak on phone to Kabul.

After those phone calls:
•Every agreed clause was suddenly “reopened”
•Already-cleared points were put “under review”
•And timing was dragged intentionally.

It became obvious that the aim was to stall progress until outside actors (including India) could be looped in - not to reach a settlement.

Why They Want the US Involved

This push for an American “guarantor” has nothing to do with sovereignty.
It is a financial reinsertion tactic:
✔ If the US is added, the Taliban can claim “cooperation”
✔ If cooperation begins, talks for “economic assistance” reopen
✔ Once money flows, pressure on internal factions reduces

So instead of countering TTP, they are trying to monetize TTP’s existence to revive a flow of dollars.

Mediators’ Private Assessment

Both Qatari and Turkish facilitators privately acknowledged three points:
1.Pakistan’s demands are legitimate & fully aligned with international norms
2.The Afghan side is not blocked by substance, but by internal insecurity
3.The Kabul faction specifically wants the file dragged toward Washington for financial leverage

️ Bottom Line

️
The talks did not fail because of diplomacy. They failed because:

The Afghan regime is internally divided

Key factions want to pull the US back in to restart the dollar pipeline

They are unwilling to act against TTP because TTP is their last bargaining chip and Insurance of Indian Money

Until Kabul resolves its internal power struggle and stops trying to convert terrorism into political currency, no progress is possible.