Without Airs Superiorty India cannot too much, so this got me thinking, what is India upto now?? How will they attack this time around??
To me it is very clear -- INDIA WILL USE DOZENS AND DOZENS OR EVEN PERHAPS HUNDREDS OF BRAHMOS MISSILES IN A PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE ON PAKISTAN'S AIR ASSETS !! Once there is significant damage to Pakistan's air assets, India can then bring in the rest of their military.
I guess my question is to the more informed members -- HOW WILL PAKISTAN PREPARE FOR SUCH A SCENARIO?? HOW CAN PAKISTAN PROTECT ITS AIR ASSETS?? I do not think that Pakistan's ADs can intercept so many Brahmos - yes a few but not all of them.
Firstly, if they use that much firepower as a pre-emptive strikes then the escalation ladder will be out of the equation.
Secondly, it'll be very hard to defend against a missile barrage of that scale. So, it'll really depends on early detection, at which point all PAF assets will have to be airborne to scramble away from missile trajectories to minimize any damage. If India predict the dispersion accurately, then they could follow up with an IAF aeriel ambush. It'll be tricky for PAF to scramble in a manner that minimizes the chances for the assets to get ambushed while also occupying space that allow them to defend / counter attack. However, PAF most likely has that contingency already planned.
Lastly, any preemptive strike of that scale will leave very few responsive options for Pakistan, and I don't want to guess what that response will be, however, it'll militarily justify a SOS response.
On a side note, I don't think India will launch any preemptive strike of that sort because:-
1. As described above - would force Pakistan's hand to respond in a manner that doesn't serve in the best interest of either country.
2. To carry out such a large scale pre-emptive strikes, India needs a cause that justifies the response - which they don't have - yet.
3. For Modi, the optics of Indian population living under a national illusion and collective fear of a looming war with a "national enemy" - serves better to maintain status quo for his political/power goals instead of that illusion turning into a reality, especially where they force Pakistan's hand into a mass civilian casuality response.
I don't know what goes in Modi's head but I don't think he's as foolish and testosterone driven monster as one might think, he's a cunning and exploitative politician after all. I'd guess, even if he wants some sort of military action, he'd want a high-intensity localized conflict. Still, the fallacy that he can commit is the same as any before him i.e. believing that they can write a scrip in their head and all eventualities will follow that script precisely.
