There is a nuclear sabre rattling escalation ladder. The Russians have been doing this for years. There are still a menu of options.
The following is per google:
Phase 1: Verbal Signaling & Coercion
- Sub-threshold rhetoric: Vague warnings about "grave consequences" or "destroying adversaries" to deter involvement in a conflict.
- Doctrinal ambiguity: Publicly updating nuclear doctrines to lower the threshold for legitimate nuclear use.
- Treaty suspension: Withdrawing from arms control agreements (e.g., exiting the New START Treaty) to signal unconstrained capabilities.
Phase 2: Demonstrative Actions
- Strategic drills: Conducting large-scale military exercises focused on the use of tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons.
- Forward deployments: Moving nuclear warheads to allied territory or forward-operating bases.
- Resumption of testing: Conducting explosive nuclear tests to demonstrate resolve and technical capability.
Phase 3: Intrawar Deterrence
- Show of force: Firing unarmed ballistic missiles or performing high-altitude detonations as a visible warning.
- "Escalate to de-escalate": A theoretical strategy where a state detonates a low-yield nuclear weapon on a non-populated area or a strictly military target to compel the enemy to sue for peace.
Phase 4: Limited Nuclear War
- Counter-force strikes: Using low-to-medium yield tactical weapons against concentrated military installations, naval fleets, or logistical hubs without targeting civilian populations.
Phase 5: General Nuclear War
- Counter-value strikes: Full-scale, uncontrolled employment of strategic nuclear arsenals against the adversary's economic and population centers (often described as "spasm war").
