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[FuturePAF]

There are times when it seems Pakistan's military has a Ukrainian advisor -- and this is one of them. The approach of delegating small UAS work to the private sector comes straight from Ukraine's playbook.

If you notice, the private sector's work right now is all geared toward loitering munitions, i.e., from drone design to RATO to piston engines.

I think the recent defence budget likely allocates A LOT of money for these LMs and the Pak military (via MoDP) told the private sector they're getting a big chunk of these deals if they can meet the pricing requirements.

So now, all these companies are absorbing the upfront cost of facilities, R&D (or ToT), and so on because they know they've got huge domestic orders lined up. Once they all recoup those upfront overhead costs, I just can't imagine how cheap their pricing will be for export due to the PKR. I think Pak's setting up to be a lowkey killer in the loitering munitions market.

Good, let’s hope they make impressive, globally competitive products, and win bids in the GCC and beyond.

 

[FuturePAF]

The people sent to do these surveys will also be the lower mediocre variety who form the core of the rot so any survey they do will be utterly useless.

True, a catch 22. Perhaps the Shogun will find skilled people, not from the rot, but perhaps even people he knows from the cream of the crop to do this work. In the book on Meiji japan’s transformation, I’m not sure who, but whomever from Japan sent people abroad to identify foreign experts. Hopefully we have people who can identify the people best able to identify talent. People who can select the ultimate selectors, as it were.

 

[SBD-3]

Good, let’s hope they make impressive, globally competitive products, and win bids in the GCC and beyond.

I don't think loitering munitions (LMs) are likely to evolve into a globally competitive market in the way that fighter aircraft or advanced missile systems have. Instead, I see the market developing more like small arms production: many countries will be able to manufacture them domestically, often at relatively low cost and with a strong emphasis on affordability rather than technological exclusivity.

This is why we are already seeing limited diversification in design philosophy and a greater tendency to replicate proven concepts. Examples include the spread of designs inspired by the Shahed/Geran family and systems such as LUCAS, with countries adapting successful models to their own industrial and operational requirements. Pakistan's reported Shahed-inspired developments fit within this broader trend.

Cost considerations are also critical. Few militaries want to spend disproportionately large sums on a one-way attack drone when its primary value lies in being expendable. As a result, the focus tends to be on achieving acceptable performance at the lowest possible cost.

We are already seeing this dynamic in the Russia–Ukraine war, where both sides continuously improvise and modify platforms with locally available solutions—whether by integrating air-to-air missiles, adapting guidance systems, or experimenting with different payloads. The evolution of loitering munitions is therefore likely to remain highly localized, cost-driven, and iterative, emphasizing the imitation of proven concepts combined with indigenous adaptations rather than the pursuit of entirely new designs.

 

[Bilal]

to the first point

we initially thought maybe it was licensing, or tooling, etc etc, there had to be more to it

but unfortunately, we confirmed that not to be the case, and that this was accurate and there was no tot, licensing, etc.

it was the catalyst behind REK, the khaal utaarna

Bhai phir tau best hai. Humaray idaro ko tashreef hilanay pe majboor kerdia and that has lead to development of TJ version down the line.

Hamaray ahani dost ne jaan bhooj ke khaal utari ta kay hum yeh sabh ker pai…