Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

How long do you think Russia need to take Donbas?

It wouldn't be in a few years. as I lay out the Russian progress using current data as a prediction, it would be 16-20 years for them to take Donbas


If this is the primary objective, and everything else second, then Ukraine would have been able to seriously be entrenched in Kursk and it would be REALLY tough for Russia to kick them out, even giving the Ukrainian 4 months to dig-in in Kursk is fatal. By the way, Russia had already pull 56 VDV regiment (from Zaporizhia) and 11 VDV Brigade (from Charsiv Yar) to Kursk, confirmed by Russian milblog telegram channel. And 2 Brigade is not going to be enough for Kursk

Which mean Russia is going to need to deal with both at the same time, the sooner the better, and there are no more advance in Vovchansk, that offensive is long spent, conventional military common sense dictate they should have withdrawn from there before winter because there is no anchoring point still even after 3 months, don't be daft.

We find it astonishing that Ukraine has voluntarily extended the front with Russia. Because an extension of the front is in Russia's interest due to the weakened Ukraine.


The Ukrainians in Kursk. Are to Russian advantage. Keeps them away from important theatres and they can more easily be processed as POWs when their government agrees to capitulate.

To sum up the situation. The Ukies at a cost of over a thousand casualties so far and the loss of hundreds of vehicles have established a bridgehead of no military value. They are now, and will have to continue, feed more men and material into this fire sack to avoid a PR disaster. I predict the Russians will be in no hurry to shut down this enclave as it is and will continue, to swallow up the men and material so badly needed by the retreating Uki forces in The Donbas dudes.
 
We find it astonishing that Ukraine has voluntarily extended the front with Russia. Because an extension of the front is in Russia's interest due to the weakened Ukraine.


The Ukrainians in Kursk. Are to Russian advantage. Keeps them away from important theatres and they can more easily be processed as POWs when their government agrees to capitulate.

To sum up the situation. The Ukies at a cost of over a thousand casualties so far and the loss of hundreds of vehicles have established a bridgehead of no military value. They are now, and will have to continue, feed more men and material into this fire sack to avoid a PR disaster. I predict the Russians will be in no hurry to shut down this enclave as it is and will continue, to swallow up the men and material so badly needed by the retreating Uki forces in The Donbas dudes.
correct observation, meanwhile russians are pummeling what remained of UAF in donbas and approaching vital logistical hubs for whole regional front.
 
We find it astonishing that Ukraine has voluntarily extended the front with Russia. Because an extension of the front is in Russia's interest due to the weakened Ukraine.


The Ukrainians in Kursk. Are to Russian advantage. Keeps them away from important theatres and they can more easily be processed as POWs when their government agrees to capitulate.

To sum up the situation. The Ukies at a cost of over a thousand casualties so far and the loss of hundreds of vehicles have established a bridgehead of no military value. They are now, and will have to continue, feed more men and material into this fire sack to avoid a PR disaster. I predict the Russians will be in no hurry to shut down this enclave as it is and will continue, to swallow up the men and material so badly needed by the retreating Uki forces in The Donbas dudes.
Again, this post and the previous post show you have a serious misunderstanding on why Ukraine is in Kursk, even tho I tried to explain to you 3 times now.

THIS IS NOT ABOUT LAND, THIS IS NOT ABOUT PR OR MAKE PUTIN LOOK LIKE AN IDIOTAND THIS IS NOT ABOUT RUSSIA ATTACK US AND WE ATTACK THEM. This is about holding that piece of land hostage. In a perfect world, it would be like you said, Russia would have been able to deal with both at the same time, but was it a perfect world we are living in? At least in this war?

Ukraine is forcing Russia to choose, they either continue their attack in Donbas and ignore Kursk, then day by day, Ukraine will entrench into Kursk, and it make it very hard to dispel them later, and do you know what the Russian did the first week in Kursk? They dig defensive trench 46 km from the border, it never a good sign you need to dig defensive trench somewhere INSIDE your territories.

It's almost 3 weeks now, and Ukraine is still progressing in Kursk, as this ISW map shown

UAF Kursk Incursion August 22, 2024.png

And that's bad because Russia would have to start at "Line of Contact" aka the frontline, and it will take a lot longer to go over that frontline, and in most Ukrainian city case, it's between 4 to 6 months. Now, If this is the true situation as of today, then basically Ukraine can make their own defensive fortification and anchor them between Sudzha-Malaya Lokyna-Lubimovka, and bear in mind, this 3 city is INSIDE the line of contact, which mean Russia would first need to breach the line of contact BEFORE reaching the defensive line, which give them weeks, if not months to deal with fortification. And then you have a second defensive line that Russian dug before the incursion, that 2 lines alone would take Russia months, if not years to go over, and you can't retake those region without crossing those 2 defensive line.

The issue here is, it would be very hard to deal with now already, if Russia managed to stabilised the front, but it wasn't, which mean Ukraine will continue to push inside Kursk, and if Russia want to wait until they completed their conquest in Donbas, I don't know how or where that line will be then. I just know this is not going to go away unless Russia go in.

Ukrainian is forcing the Russian to choose, whether they want to reinforce Kursk, and take pressure off Donbas, so they can counterattack. Bear in mind, it will be YEARS for Russia to be in anyway threaten Donbas, they have time to wait for it, on the other hand, if Russia were to not reinforce Kursk and let the Ukrainian run wild, even if Donbas was captured completely, the time Russia let the Ukrainian to make defensive fortification would mean they will most likely have to either bite the bullet and lose more men taking those land back, or negotiate with Ukraine to trade if they don't want further loss. That would mean the Russian that died taking Donbas meaningless.

And Provotsk is only important if the Russian managed to take it in a timely manner, because if they moved all the supplies from Provotsk, then it will not be a "supply hub", it will be just "some place", they won't take Provotsk at least for a few months, a lot of time to move stuff out.

If you can't see how bad this is for the Russian, and still think this is just a PR Ops. Well.......
 
Last edited:
Kavkaz, Russia burning after hit by a Ukraine missile
The entire Russia supplies to occupied Crimea goes over the port.

 
A report by a German media
The Ukraine assault on Kursk caught the russians unguarded. the russians could never imagine Ukraine would bring the war to them.
Ukraine advance on Kursk goes almost unhindered. Putin throws fresh young russian recruits that went 3 day training to war. Russia defense minister Belousov says he plans a plan.

 
Again, this post and the previous post show you have a serious misunderstanding on why Ukraine is in Kursk, even tho I tried to explain to you 3 times now.

THIS IS NOT ABOUT LAND, THIS IS NOT ABOUT PR OR MAKE PUTIN LOOK LIKE AN IDIOTAND THIS IS NOT ABOUT RUSSIA ATTACK US AND WE ATTACK THEM. This is about holding that piece of land hostage. In a perfect world, it would be like you said, Russia would have been able to deal with both at the same time, but was it a perfect world we are living in? At least in this war?

Ukraine is forcing Russia to choose, they either continue their attack in Donbas and ignore Kursk, then day by day, Ukraine will entrench into Kursk, and it make it very hard to dispel them later, and do you know what the Russian did the first week in Kursk? They dig defensive trench 46 km from the border, it never a good sign you need to dig defensive trench somewhere INSIDE your territories.

It's almost 3 weeks now, and Ukraine is still progressing in Kursk, as this ISW map shown

View attachment 60775

And that's bad because Russia would have to start at "Line of Contact" aka the frontline, and it will take a lot longer to go over that frontline, and in most Ukrainian city case, it's between 4 to 6 months. Now, If this is the true situation as of today, then basically Ukraine can make their own defensive fortification and anchor them between Sudzha-Malaya Lokyna-Lubimovka, and bear in mind, this 3 city is INSIDE the line of contact, which mean Russia would first need to breach the line of contact BEFORE reaching the defensive line, which give them weeks, if not months to deal with fortification. And then you have a second defensive line that Russian dug before the incursion, that 2 lines alone would take Russia months, if not years to go over, and you can't retake those region without crossing those 2 defensive line.

The issue here is, it would be very hard to deal with now already, if Russia managed to stabilised the front, but it wasn't, which mean Ukraine will continue to push inside Kursk, and if Russia want to wait until they completed their conquest in Donbas, I don't know how or where that line will be then. I just know this is not going to go away unless Russia go in.

Ukrainian is forcing the Russian to choose, whether they want to reinforce Kursk, and take pressure off Donbas, so they can counterattack. Bear in mind, it will be YEARS for Russia to be in anyway threaten Donbas, they have time to wait for it, on the other hand, if Russia were to not reinforce Kursk and let the Ukrainian run wild, even if Donbas was captured completely, the time Russia let the Ukrainian to make defensive fortification would mean they will most likely have to either bite the bullet and lose more men taking those land back, or negotiate with Ukraine to trade if they don't want further loss. That would mean the Russian that died taking Donbas meaningless.

And Provotsk is only important if the Russian managed to take it in a timely manner, because if they moved all the supplies from Provotsk, then it will not be a "supply hub", it will be just "some place", they won't take Provotsk at least for a few months, a lot of time to move stuff out.

If you can't see how bad this is for the Russian, and still think this is just a PR Ops. Well.......



If This was a NATO diversion along with the various demonstrations North and South along the border from this area.

It may or may not have created the environment intended, we'll know soon enough, or it will never happen 🤔

Sadly, we were correct Absolutely correct, Russia is not taking the bait and just keeps on grinding through the Donbas lines knowing full well that it was exactly their advances in the East that led the Ukies to this desperate diversionary folly. Everyone knows they can't hold what they raced through toward Kursk, it's an enormous strain on already depleted manpower and paper thin logistics that still racks up lots of casualties the Ukies can't even begin to afford.
 
Kursk is a fucking trap for Ukraine the fall of Kursk would be a total collapse of Ukraine army there are around 120,000-200,000 Ukrainian soldiers in this battle fighting on open fields while Russia is consolidating it's positions in Donbass which is on a free fall now as Ukraine assigned all it's troops to Kursk adventure
 
Kursk is a fucking trap for Ukraine the fall of Kursk would be a total collapse of Ukraine army there are around 120,000-200,000 Ukrainian soldiers in this battle fighting on open fields while Russia is consolidating it's positions in Donbass which is on a free fall now as Ukraine assigned all it's troops to Kursk adventure
That’s the most surprising thing in this war.
Putin cares of little to nothing about Kursk, or Belgorod or Bryansk. The Donbas is for him more important. He is total obsessed of Donbas. Much a drug addict. Russia state media sells Ukraine invasion as the new normal.
 
600,000 casualties and counting every day since the invasion
Russia runs out of body bags.
Russia arny asks a widow to finance body bag for her husband.
Luckily there is crowdfunding for body bags.

 
If This was a NATO diversion along with the various demonstrations North and South along the border from this area.

It may or may not have created the environment intended, we'll know soon enough, or it will never happen 🤔

Sadly, we were correct Absolutely correct, Russia is not taking the bait and just keeps on grinding through the Donbas lines knowing full well that it was exactly their advances in the East that led the Ukies to this desperate diversionary folly. Everyone knows they can't hold what they raced through toward Kursk, it's an enormous strain on already depleted manpower and paper thin logistics that still racks up lots of casualties the Ukies can't even begin to afford.
Russia is going to grind on regardless of whether or not Ukraine invade Kursk. As I said before, it's not like they are going to stop if the Kursk episode did not happen.

Again, the issue is not whether or not Russia continues to grind on, but whether or not they have advantage over Ukraine after they invaded Kursk.

The charted progress suggested that the Russian progress from the last 3 weeks (where Ukraine invade Kursk) does not change and remain between 500m to 900m since before the attack, which mean either Russian aren't taking any advantage, or there was no advantage to take. Simply because of the fact that the Kursk group is not related to the Donbas group, there are different AOR.

If this is a strategic mistake, Russian would have cash in on that already, Bruh, Ukraine didn't just invade Kursk, they did it almost 3 weeks (18 days ago) more than enough time for the Russian to exploit any weakness if there are any........
 
That’s the most surprising thing in this war.
Putin cares of little to nothing about Kursk, or Belgorod or Bryansk. The Donbas is for him more important. He is total obsessed of Donbas. Much a drug addict. Russia state media sells Ukraine invasion as the new normal.
LoL u are being too blind not to see it's a trap , Kursk is open field Ukraine has alloted 1 third of it's army to Kursk byranks and Belgorod while their forces are crumbling in donetsk and other places because they sent their best of the best to Russia . Russia is given a free had now to conquer Donbass toretsk fell, niu York fell and pokvorsk is about to fall any time then Ukraine will send Chechens to clean sweep sitting ducks in kursk
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top