F-22Raptor
Elite Member
Have a nice read buddy. You said absolutely nothing new and all my points stand
Russia has long since strategically lost this war.
Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates
- Thread starter ghazi52
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Have a nice read buddy. You said absolutely nothing new and all my points stand
Russia has long since strategically lost this war.
PakAl
Elite Member
Ukraine was already pro west when the revolution took place, even before the revolution Ukraine freely traded with the west. They will continue to trade with the west, even join the EU but no Nato/western troops will be stationed in Ukraine, and Ukraine will not join Nato or get its territory back. If in the future Ukraine takes this step then we will face another war. Overall Ukraine suffered alot and is not getting much in return. I agree Russia suffered alot, the 800,000 loss of life is too much but they drew the redline, today the USA is accepting this redline.
j_hungary
Professional
The problem with Russia is that they were supposed to outright win this war, that is how they were planning on this particular operation to begin with, a quick victory follow by a quick transition of government, and then 100% of Ukraine going back to Russia just like the old time during Yanukovych.
We know 3 years later, this is not to be, setting aside NATO expanded 6% and make a new front toward Russia (Finland front) and Russia now really and completely surrounded by NATO, I don't think NATO is the reason why Russia wanted to invade to begin with, just look at what they gain in Ukraine versus what they loses.
What they gain?
20% of Ukrainian Territories(which they already hold part of Donbas and Crimea to begin with, so it's not really 20% gain in this war), about 15% Ukrainian Natural resource which now worth around 1.7 trillion dollar (estimated Ukrainian Natural Resource worth around 12.5 trillion dollars) that's it.
What they lose?
about 7% Kursk. 50-70% of their entire military stock, between 500,000-700,000 killed, wounded and missing soldier, a highly inflated economy, losing almost all the Western Market beside Hungary and so on. Losing a large chunk of work force.
Now if you just look at what Ukrainian lose, of course you are going to see Russian come out ahead. But look at it this way, all these loses and making an arse out of their economy, for 15% of Ukrainian Natural Resource? That 1 trillion or so Russian gain would have to devoted into rebuilding their own military, and fix their own economy and then some, in an alternative universe, what if Russia just trade with Ukraine and get those 1.7 trillion Resource that way? I am pretty sure it is going to end up a lot better than what it was today. Instead, they are getting a beat up in their economy and establishing a hostile neighbor that EU and US President after Trump is going to support to the fullest, for what exactly?
j_hungary
Professional
As I said in the above post, Russia would probably ended up a lot better just to trade with Ukraine instead of starting this war which they can't finish.
There are no way or how in this current configuration Russia can win in anywhere other than Donbas and that too would be paying a hefty price. Which in itself is an issue, setting aside Ukrainian won't do a Taliban in Donbas, even if the Russian capture the entire Donbas, it is going to mean nothing because the way they capture it is basically destroying and dismantling everything, it's a piece of poison land and you will have to rebuild it, and who's going to pay for it? That's a large swarth of land too, over 60,000 square kilometers.
They loses this war strategically when they failed in Kyiv, a full scale war with a small result is not a win by anyone standard, and if you think that's a win, then you probably should not be in any military or government position.
j_hungary
Professional
The reason why everyone think a Full Russian invasion is impossible back in 2021 is because they only have troop to take Donbas. They NEVER had a chance on Kyiv.
And Donbas is another issue because that was already at war for a long time, and the Ukrainian did not move there because they were afraid that Russia will intervene, which they did without Ukrainian moving into Donbas. So when they were caught off guard, the entire line crumbled. Because it was designed to fend off the separatist, not a full scale Russian invasion
Russia can't fight this war in another 10 years, because their economy aren't build for this, a1 10 years war in Iraq pushes US into debt overdrive, put the war in Afghanistan and the US is now 36 trillion dollars in debt, and Iraq and Afghanistan is in no way a big scale war like this, and Russia is going in alone, that's why their economy is tanking now, because they had run out of option, the war keep on, inflation is going to hike, and you can't really deal with it because basically their bank is running out of money, even if the war stopped today, there are no guarantee the west would lift the sanction, which mean Russian Central Bank will continue to be empty, and because 46% of all economic activities now is Military Production, and you can't turn it into civilian consumption, you can't stimualate local economy by buiding tank unless you want to sell it to your civilian..
For Russian economy to get back to level, first they need to revert back from war time economy. Then start making civilian goods so you can trade in Russia and restart the economic circulation and start building up money supplies instead of using the money to do war stuff. That, even if the West stopped the sanction, will be years to decade long transition. So the longer the war drag on, the worse it would be for Russian future, because you lose more money they don't have (they are now literally borrowing from the citizens by enticing them to deposit their money into bank with 21% interest rate, that's more than you pay for your credit card) and more people are going to die which affect the work ages. In 10 years, Russia would have bankrupted because you can't keep doing what they are doing now for the next 10 years.
j_hungary
Professional
Well, you can argue they only wanted Ukraine.
The issue here is, whether or not they will, is up to them, all I know is, Ukrainian cannot be any more similar to Russian than the rest of Europe, and they have no love lost on those people by invading them? Maybe you would think they are going to stop there? Maybe they will not, but one thing for sure, you don't plan your country in all the rosy as possible, Russia had already invaded 2 different countries, Georgia and Ukraine, will they be stop after Ukraine? Sure, why not, but should you be prepare for the worse?
Donald Trump serve only to Donald Trump, he also thinks Palestinian is not a threat, that's why he wants to build waterfront property and expel all Palestinian on it, and that's how he sees thing, why keep fighting when you can just take land and developed it, it's no different with Ukrainian resource and Palestinian Waterfront Properties. Do you want Trump to develope Palestine into Waterfront resort? If you do then yeah, I will agree with you this war is pointless.
j_hungary
Professional
Are you seriously comparing the worse time (Still not worse than Russia now) of US economy with the 1988 crash to a "Self-Inflicted" wound created by Russia?
On the other hand, UIS can and have a lot of debt because people still buy their bond, that's is the different. Who are you looking to buy Russian bond?
Also, the graph is completely opposite to the Russian economy now, it's trending down with the US Fed, it's trending up for the Russian Central Bank
j_hungary
Professional
Maybe you should move to Russia and see how much chance the EU have.........
And if they can't handle a next door country like this, I don't think it's that far fetch to think EU military alone stand a chance against Russia.
I mean one have to be an idiot to look at 3 years of Russian war in Ukraine and say "I want my military to fight just like that"
j_hungary
Professional
Yes, that's pretty dumb in Ukraine parts.
And that's probably why they want to restart their nuclear program again.
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