Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

[Persian Gulf]

I'm talking about winning the war. Check Ukrainian troop numbers by years.

Anyway, enough wasting of my time, keep cheering whatever side you want to cheer...

taking control of the 4 oblasts is the key to victory and Russia is well on their way, albeit at a huge cost.

yes, you too.

 

[Ё-МАЁ]

No, that's not a victory! Victory is achieving the objectives of the operation!

 

[Soldier35]

Footage of Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drones striking buildings of Ukrainian UAV assembly plants. The video was filmed in the Konotop area of Ukraine's Sumy region. It was not possible to determine what UAVs the company assembled

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[F-22Raptor]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Mobius]

Happy for them. They managed to escape clown Zulensky's hell hole......

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Mobius]

The fcuking arseh0le isn't laughing now is he?

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Farhan23]

Happy for them. They managed to escape clown Zulensky's hell hole......

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

This is the problem with forced conscription

 

[Mobius]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Sultan Baybars]

When i told this 2 years ago, that Russia has a very long brath and that like in WWII they will produce more than all of Europe, the reaction of retarded Turkish kemalist secularists:

“WTF LOLLL whUhAhUAHahaHahaha !!”

(Not here but on the newly Turkish defemce forum defensehub)

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Soldier35]

Episode of repelling an attack by Ukrainian sea drones in the waters off the Russian city of Novorossiysk. Presumably, the Ukrainian drones were destroyed by an ATGM. The video shows only one drone, how many were unknown. Perhaps the rest of the drones were destroyed far from the coastline. It is also possible that one sea drone was sent into the attack, in which case the coast guard may mistake it for an ordinary vessel.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[vizier]

They were completely driven out so much that they already entered Sumy and yes with the support of the DPRK which sent 10 thousand fighters, most of them were KPA units supposedly special forces of the XI Corps. They are elite light infantry, almost special forces, they have their pick in terms of who can enter, they receive advanced training compared to the rest of the KPA, and their mission in a war is exactly what they were supposedly tasked with doing at Kursk: breaking through prepared defenses on foot. This does not make the Kurk issue a Russian failure when in reality even Ukrainian commanders are resigning due to incompetent strategies of the Ukrainian command, which includes Kursk, whose number of deaths and material losses were enormous for the objective they wanted, it is not surprising that Putin does not kill Zelensky.

This is exactly the kind of maneuver the Russians expect and want from the Ukrainians. I don’t doubt that they will do it because the comedian who is leading the war on the Ukrainian side is a PR agent and wants to make the war his main TV show. Ukraine has never won a single battle while it has been on the offensive since November 2022, do you really think that this will change anything?

Last time Ukraine had invaded Kherson with huge losses but with mobilized personnel and its units with TO&E above 60-70%, now this maximum is no more than 50% in all its battalions, whose main deficiency is chronic understaffing. I think you are being fed by Ukrainian propaganda, because both sides suffer from the same problem: there is no breakthrough because it is simply not possible.

Good analogy but useless considering we are seeing two Soviet armies fighting each other.

You simply do not know the reality of the ground nor the Recon Fires Complex that keeps both under constant surveillance and continuous attack preventing any advance that explores areas after the attempted penetration. By the way, the Ukrainians made the same type of attack that the Russians are making in the failed counteroffensive in 2023 in the first days after the initial armor losses in the Robotyne axis. Do you call these human wave attacks too?

Russia has been using its Recon Fires Complex since the beginning of the war, but Ukraine already had its system ready and operational, unlike the Russians who, in addition to expanding the use of the system, began to deploy drones that began to be part of the Russian system, something that the Ukrainians had already done even before starting the war. The year 2022 was the year in which the Russians tried to advance while their Recon Fires Complex had not even reached its majority, while the year 2023 was when we saw that ISTAR began to improve, which ended up culminating in the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

The Russians have neither the training nor the skills, much less the experience, to conduct SEAD/DEAD operations that would allow the VKS to control the air, yet drones are still part of the recon fires complex and fighters will not be of much use in degrading FPV/DJ capabilities unless they start hunting each component of the recon firex complex individually or collectively, both sides are incapable of doing either of the two that would allow them to permanently degrade the other's recon firex complex.

Dude, study up on the "bite and hold" strategy, both sides have been doing it since 2023.

You can beat Ukraine that way on the long run but at what cost 1m casualties both sides. A high casualty strategy also has other risks for Russia. Periphery parts such as the caucasus region parts of Russia like Daghestan,Chechnya and others there can be revolts because of too high casualties.

SEAD-DEAD imporvements and smaller gains is better than gaining a larger area with too many casualties for Russia. Ukr airforce is also continiously improving. An immediate ceasefire to heal the wounds for Russia and imrpove its airforce sead-dead capability would be better with the condition that Ukraine wont be getting future f16s that would challange Ruaf. It can be connected to total number of Ru aircraft as it increases for example for every 20 new aircraft inducted to Ruaf 2 F16s can be taken by Ukraine from its western allies. That kind of proportion can protect the balance of ceasefire. There wont be nato membership as the lands are still contested with a conflict although will be stopped by ceasefire like NK and SK. Zelensky cannot give up the 4 regions as well as Crimea to get nato membership.

 

[Nuffle]

You can beat Ukraine that way on the long run but at what cost 1m casualties both sides. A high casualty strategy also has other risks for Russia. Periphery parts such as the caucasus region parts of Russia like Daghestan,Chechnya and others there can be revolts because of too high casualties.

SEAD-DEAD imporvements and smaller gains is better than gaining a larger area with too many casualties for Russia. Ukr airforce is also continiously improving. An immediate ceasefire to heal the wounds for Russia and imrpove its airforce sead-dead capability would be better with the condition that Ukraine wont be getting future f16s that would challange Ruaf. It can be connected to total number of Ru aircraft as it increases for example for every 20 new aircraft inducted to Ruaf 2 F16s can be taken by Ukraine from its western allies. That kind of proportion can protect the balance of ceasefire. There wont be nato membership as the lands are still contested with a conflict although will be stopped by ceasefire like NK and SK. Zelensky cannot give up the 4 regions as well as Crimea to get nato membership.

The ethnic minorities in Russia who are in the SMO are getting paid a lot of money to fight in Ukraine, and if any of them die, their families receive a large amount of money as payment for their services, and some of these families even hope that some of them die so that they can receive the bonus and payment. This was said by a Brazilian who went to Russia and saw the situation in the country up close. Most of the volunteers in the war are from these republics, while the Russian cosmopolitan sides have almost no volunteers, so Russia can still afford to hire volunteers for the SMO. Of course, this incurs large amounts of payments, since the ongoing war consumes money at unsustainable levels, so there is no way the Russians can keep this up forever, but it will all depend on which side can withstand the most casualties, and the Ukrainian side is the heaviest weight in this balance. Another thing that should be mentioned is that the Russians annexed part of the four oblasts, which means that more than 2 million Ukrainians are already part of Russia, so even if the Russians have 2 million or more casualties, they have not lost anything in terms of human resources, if you compare it with Ukraine, the number must be 20x worse if not more.

It is funny when people talk about large numbers of Russian casualties but exclude the Ukrainian side.

In a devastating war of such magnitude as the one that is unfolding before our eyes in real time, it is always worth talking and writing about the losses, even if the parties treat this data as state secrets.

It is especially important to deal with this data, because juggling with numbers has also become part of the information battlefield of this war. Most analysts do not address the issue in depth or simply do not want to see the horror that the Ukrainian battlefields reveal.

I am primarily qualified to deal with the losses of the Ukrainian side, because the Russians’ ability to tolerate losses and their human and material reserves are an order of magnitude greater than those of Ukraine.

The source of the basic information is the July 26, 2023 article by the Jamestown Foundation, which also maintains good relations with the Ukrainian political leadership and regularly dreams of the division of Russia (it also organizes international conferences). Citing several Ukrainian sources, the article claims that by the end of 2022 Ukraine had mobilized one million people, and by July 2023 a total of two million people.

There are sources with more partial data, for example, that by October 2022 the Ukrainian side had managed to mobilize 700,000 people, and there is also scattered information about the number of volunteers. Considering that in 2022 the Ukrainian side carried out a successful mobilization and in the autumn of that year conducted effective offensive operations in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, and in the summer of 2023 organized and launched a large-scale offensive operation towards Crimea, the protection of information was not as strict as later, therefore we have significantly more information about mobilization and personnel data for 2022 and 2023.

For example, it is also known (it was made public by the deputy chairman of the Rada defense committee) what the Ukrainian Armed Forces had in February 2022, and there are also partial reports on average monthly mobilization.

Taking into account the above, we can state the following with a high degree of certainty:
The strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (contract soldiers, number of National Guard, border guards) in February-March 2022: 348,000 people; :arrow: Number of volunteers in 2022-2025: 165,000 – 185,000 people; (2022 data is 100,000 people, the number of candidates for volunteers decreased sharply after the fall of 2023);

Number of troops mobilized in 2022-2025: 2,440,000 – 2,660,000 people; (with the proviso that large-scale mobilization took place in the first year and a half of the war. The waste of personnel was caused by the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, as a result of which the then Chief of the General Staff announced his demand for the mobilization of 500,000 people to compensate for losses by the end of 2023);

Total number of people serving in the armed forces between 2022-2025: 2,953,000 – 3,193,000 people.

Now, after the above numbers, the big question is: where are the soldiers, if we can estimate the current strength of the army at 800,000?

Because the math gives a somewhat confusing number: the difference is 2,153,000 to 2,393,000.

Considering that there is no demobilization in Ukraine during a state of war and martial law, I have only one logical explanation: the bulk of the difference of over 2 million is losses in killed and wounded. Of course, prisoners of war, missing persons and deserters should also be included in the large difference (in the case of the latter, you can read news reports about numbers in the hundreds of thousands).

Independent and even pro-Ukrainian analysts have already concluded that Ukraine, at the current pace of mobilization, cannot even replace its losses on the battlefield. Based on the open data sets available to us, we can also see that Ukraine has actually exhausted the age groups eligible for mobilization. This is one of the reasons why the medical exemptions of 900,000 people aged 25 to 60 had to be reviewed.

For the biased and inattentive: these 900,000 people are not part of the pool of people with medical disabilities, they were not reviewed. These 900,000 people are part of the pool of 3.4 million people who were available for mobilization by Ukraine at the beginning of 2024). As far as I know, the exemptions have been revoked for 250,000 people - approximately this is the amount of mobilization reserves that Kiev still has.

I would not go into the ratio of combat deaths to combat deaths among themselves now - I still believe the ratio is 1:1, maximum 1:1.5).

Let's see what the above numbers mean! There is historical experience on what the number of mobilizations and losses in relation to the total population in a society implies.

Germany mobilized 19.5% of its population in World War I and its losses in close combat (killed and wounded) were close to 10.5%. These rates contributed to the defeat and socio-economic collapse of Germany.

In World War II, Germany mobilized a quarter of its population, with losses in close combat (dead and wounded) of 12.6%. The high mobilization rate led to the complete exhaustion of the economy and society.

Russia mobilized 9% of its population in World War I, but could not logistically supply this huge army. Its casualty rate was 4.2%. Insufficient logistics, defeat and revolution (1917) showed the unsustainability of mobilization.

Japan mobilized 10.1% of its population in World War II, and its casualty rate was 3.7%. Military defeat reflected the unsustainability of mobilization and economic collapse.

What pattern do the above figures show?

For the losing countries (e.g. Germany, Japan, Russian Empire), mobilization rates generally ranged from 9% to 25% in the 20th century, depending on the extent of the war. High rates (e.g. Germany: 25.8%) often led to economic and social collapse.

Losses (dead and wounded) amounted to 3–12% of the total population in the losing countries.

What could all this mean for Ukraine?

First of all, we need to estimate the Ukrainian population. There are no official figures, so we can only estimate them, and besides, we cannot count the entire population of the territories within the internationally recognized borders. However, we know from official figures that after the outbreak of the war, the labor market decreased by 40%. Based on this, one of the estimates is 24.6 million people (this is an optimistic and maximum estimate).

I can also start from the number of live births, comparing the data with those of other European countries: thus, the 176,679 live births in 2024 can be compared with the data of a country with a population of about 20 million (for example, Romania). The average European birth rate is 9-12 newborns/1,000 people. Compared to Ukraine, this would already mean an extremely low population: 15-20 million people.

With 3 million soldiers and a population of 24.6 million, we have a mobilization rate of 12.2%. Considering 2 million casualties (dead, wounded, missing, deserters...), we get a loss of 8.13%.

You don't even need to dispute all this to know that Ukraine is in a much worse state than the Russians, just check the number of prisoners on each side.
-----
The VKS is also improving. The pace of learning is up to both sides in the conflict. It is not only Ukraine that has a learning curve, the Russians also have better aircraft and better assets to continually improve their air force, much more than the West is willing to offer Ukraine to win the war. Furthermore, between this year and next year is the period in which the Russians would produce the same or more aircraft than they lost, so they may reach the point where they will increase their combat strength in the VKS.

A ceasefire depends on both sides, the Russians are confident that they are the stronger side at the moment in this conflict and any full ceasefire will depend on guarantees on the root issues that the Russians talk so much about, so the war could continue until the Russians accept a bilateral or unilateral ceasefire.

 

[Soldier35]

Ukrainian servicemen showed an episode of counteraction to the Russian FPV drone in the Donetsk direction. The servicemen noticed the drone and started firing at it with small arms, but they were unable to destroy the drone. Since there could have been several drones, the soldiers retreated and used the forest belt as cover. As a result of a short battle, the drone destroyed the pickup truck. The video has been shortened.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Soldier35]

The Russian army continues to use Geran-2 kamikaze drones to strike Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices. The video published by residents of Kremenchuk shows Geran-2 drone strikes on the local military registration and enlistment office. The drone strikes were confirmed by Ukrainian journalist and video blogger Anatoly Shariy. Technical information about the drones is on the channel. The consequences of the drone strikes on the Kremenchuk military registration and enlistment office are shown at the end of the video.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Soldier35]

Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm howitzer M777 and a military tractor, on the right bank of the Dnieper, in the Kherson direction. The attack was carried out by several drones at once, first the howitzer was hit by ammunition drops from drones, then an attack was carried out by FPV drones. M777 howitzers have been produced in the United States since 2005 by BAE Systems. Howitzers are capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 40 km using M982 Excalibur shells. Ukraine received 130 M777A2 howitzers for 2024, about 100 howitzers have already been destroyed.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies