Russia - Ukraine war part ll. News and Discussions
- Thread starter Fatman17
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j_hungary
Professional
What most people failed to see is the Post War insurgency within the Russian Occupied area and in Russia itself, that alone is unbalanced, we had already seen Russian scientist and Russian General assassinated inside Russia, some even in Moscow or St Pete, and then the drone attack inside and outside Russia, it won't stop even after Ukraine and Russia achieve peace somehow.
Figting is the easy part, well, not so much in Russian term, but what really killing people is the attrition and insurgency, as I said many time, Afghanistan failed not because of us failing to acheive our objective, but simply because we can't stay there forever, before in 2014, Ukraine didn't raise an insurgency in Russian Occupied Territories because they are afraid there will be reprecussion, but that is gone because they were fully invaded, I don't see any point Ukraine will stop attacking Russia infrastructure and people after the war, it may die down a bit, but that would mean you need to keep the entire population in heighten security state, you can't really do that becasue you think you will get peace after a war.
Not to mention, post-war Ukraine is going to be pro-West to the max; this is the reason why Russia will attack Ukraine again, even if there is a peace deal, because, simply, there is no way Russia will tolerate a pro-West Ukraine.
At this point, Russia is looking at long-term insurgency inside and outside Russia, and then an aging population switched toward military production, and an extremely hostile neighbor in exchange for 20% of Ukraine, that's not a win regardless of what people said
Soldier35
Registered Member
Footage of the Russian army using the North Korean Type 75 light 107mm MLRS in combat in Ukraine. The Type 75 MLRS is used for firing from cover and mobile platforms. In the video, the Type 75 MLRS is mounted on a Chinese Desertcross 1000 all-terrain vehicle, which the Russian army had previously purchased.
F-22Raptor
Elite Member
Yommie
Elite Member
Apples and oranges. Donbas is the heart of Russia. Afghanistan was nowhere as important to Russia as Donbas is. Donbas is the power of the former USSR. As the movie Conan the Barbarian stated, power lies in steel. Donbas steel is the power of the USSR.
DIRECT TRANSLATION: 'Donbas, the Heart of Russia'
A Commentator Close to Putin Writes: Unitary Ukraine is Finished A prominent Russian business magazine, Ekspert, publishes a lead article this week by two highly placed Russian policy thinkers writing about Ukraine’s southeastern provinces and proclaiming, “We won’t abandon them.” That emotional...
www.atlanticcouncil.org
j_hungary
Professional
Apples and oranges. Donbas is the heart of Russia. Afghanistan was nowhere as important to Russia as Donbas is. Donbas is the power of the former USSR. As the movie Conan the Barbarian stated, power lies in steel. Donbas steel is the power of the USSR.
DIRECT TRANSLATION: 'Donbas, the Heart of Russia'
A Commentator Close to Putin Writes: Unitary Ukraine is Finished A prominent Russian business magazine, Ekspert, publishes a lead article this week by two highly placed Russian policy thinkers writing about Ukraine’s southeastern provinces and proclaiming, “We won’t abandon them.” That emotional...
Yet the Ukrainians had been fighting the Russians in Donbas hand over foot for 3 years and 10 months, I mean, if you think someone fights you in the open for a piece of land for 4 years, will simply lay down their arms and say "Okay, the peace treaty is signed, and we should accept that now and stop fighting." Well, I can only say "you are stupider than I thought you were."
There are already insurgencies in Russia and in Donbas, do you honestly think they would stop once the 2 sides sign a peace deal? This war had been going on for almost 4 years; they weren't just fighting in the last 2 months. Where they may or may not go all the way, this war is almost 4 years old. Did it still not seem clear to you?
Yommie
Elite Member
It hasn't been particularly long. Read up on the Thirty Years War, the Hundred Years War. 3 years, 4 years, 6 years, is nothing. In fact, the war started in February 2014, so it'd be 12 years come next year.
j_hungary
Professional
4 years is 1/7 of a 30-year war, and this war is not going to end in the next 3. The issue here is, it's a lot easier for Ukraine to raise an insurgency in Russia and in Donbas than the other way around, because Ukrainians speak Russian and Russians can't speak Ukrainian. And it's very easy to start an insurgency, dude, my specialty in the military is counterinsurgency, I taught that stuff to the military, hell, I taught that stuff to the Ukrainian military in the Summer of 23.
The Ukrainians had already shown they are not letting those land goes, be it 4 years, 10 years, 20 years or 100 years, this isn't gonna change in several generations, and I will rephrase what a famous Vietcong General said during the Vietnam war. "I hope the Russian like Chicken Breast" because they are going to be there for a very long time.
Yommie
Elite Member
Insurgency don't win wars. IRA did insurgency for decades in Belfast and they ultimately failed taking Northern Ireland and had to recognize Northern Ireland as part of the UK.
Back in the day it was easy to do insurgency. Today everything is connected to the internet and monitored 24 7 365 by AI, it's not possible to do insurgency at any scale to make a difference. Russia recently installed Huawei counter insurgency AI which catches insurgents within a week unless they use carrier pigeons for communication.
j_hungary
Professional
Huh??
What about Vietnam? What about Afghanistan (Both times)? What about Bolivia? What about Ireland? Even Northern Ireland, the UK had to make a lot of compromises to keep the Northern Ireland (see Good Friday agreement)
and lol AI catches an insurgent? Dude, do you even know exactly how many non-electronic communications there are, and even AI wasn't that advanced to catch anything, again, there ARE ALREADY insurgency in Russia.
You have no idea how insurgency works......
