Russia - Ukraine war part ll. News and Discussions

[Viet]

what happens to Putin? he suddenly admits in public troubles in Russia. oil revenues shrinks by 1 trillion roubles while annual spending on the war increases to 172 billion USD, high inflation causing life for the russians harder.

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[Mobius]

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[Soldier35]

Footage of the use of a 152mm high-precision Russian ZOF95 Krasnopol-M2 projectile in the Donbas. Filmed near Dimitrov, the Krasnopol-M2 projectile struck a temporary deployment point for Ukrainian military personnel located in a building. A second strike targeted a Ukrainian army stronghold in the Kupyansk sector. Krasnopol-M2 projectiles are used by a Russian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer. Objective control and laser target illumination are provided by an Orlan-10 UAV.

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[vizier]

Taking all of Donbas satisfies the objectives that Mr Putin publically set for Russia about two years ago. Hence he can maintain his strongman image and portray the war as a Russian victory.

After seizing Donbas, he will sit down and negotiate with Ukraine and get whatever he can. If he doesnt get much, he wont care because he can still claim victory. It's why Mr Putin has been so unreasonable in all negotiations to end this war uptil now.

putin may be thinking that with huge manpower losses Ukraine will accept the demands like giving up whole donetsk without further fighting. But one thing he misses is that Ruaf and glide bombs are the only advantage left in that strategy and this advantage is temporary. If Ukraine gets a good amount of gripens(or amraam capable retired F4E / F5s in numbers) with awacs support flying in Romania which cannot be shot down by Ruaf then many Su35 will be shot down over Kherson and Zaporizia sectors. Later on maybe within 1 -2 years loyal wingman type of stealth drones will at least provide radar data of Ruaf similar to awacs over Donetsk-Luhansk regions and with data link they can be attacked from maximum range with amraams as well. If drones can do a2a shots the disadvantage of Ruaf will be much worse over those sectors. Downed planes cannot be replaced easily unlike conscripts.

Instead of betting on strong man image with a full Donbass invasion he can immediately freeze the conflict with some logical preconditions like no amraam capable fighter jets and loyal wingmans to Ukraine. Also further conditions can be included like no long range multi use missiles like SM-6 or cruise missiles will be provided to Ukraine as long as ceasefire holds. Even if they somehow enter nato which is highly unlikely with those arms restrictions they cannot be a future threat to Russia. They get everything now just like they are in nato right now just on the paper they are not in nato.
Also he can get the freezed assets back to revive the economy back to normal and work on 5th generation stealth drone tech that they are lacking behind right now mostly because of the war expenses.

 

[Soldier35]

The Russian army has attacked energy and transport facilities used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russian kamikaze drones "Geran-2", drones "Lancet" and FPV were allegedly used. The media also reported on the use of tactical aircraft, missiles and artillery. The video shows attacks on Ukrainian gas distribution stations and transformer substations. Technical information about drones is available on the channel.

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[Yommie]

A Su-27 fighter jet has been lost and its pilot has been killed.

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[Yommie]

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[Nuffle]

I was offline for a while. Any new information @Viet @F-22Raptor?

Kyiv is already on Moscow's doorstep?

 

[Nuffle]

putin may be thinking that with huge manpower losses Ukraine will accept the demands like giving up whole donetsk without further fighting. But one thing he misses is that Ruaf and glide bombs are the only advantage left in that strategy and this advantage is temporary. If Ukraine gets a good amount of gripens(or amraam capable retired F4E / F5s in numbers) with awacs support flying in Romania which cannot be shot down by Ruaf then many Su35 will be shot down over Kherson and Zaporizia sectors. Later on maybe within 1 -2 years loyal wingman type of stealth drones will at least provide radar data of Ruaf similar to awacs over Donetsk-Luhansk regions and with data link they can be attacked from maximum range with amraams as well. If drones can do a2a shots the disadvantage of Ruaf will be much worse over those sectors. Downed planes cannot be replaced easily unlike conscripts.

Gripen won't arrive until 2029, and besides, it will take even longer for the aircraft to have a FOC (First Operation Cover) before it starts to have an effect. This is simply impossible in the medium term.

Instead of betting on strong man image with a full Donbass invasion he can immediately freeze the conflict with some logical preconditions like no amraam capable fighter jets and loyal wingmans to Ukraine. Also further conditions can be included like no long range multi use missiles like SM-6 or cruise missiles will be provided to Ukraine as long as ceasefire holds. Even if they somehow enter nato which is highly unlikely with those arms restrictions they cannot be a future threat to Russia. They get everything now just like they are in nato right now just on the paper they are not in nato.
Also he can get the freezed assets back to revive the economy back to normal and work on 5th generation stealth drone tech that they are lacking behind right now mostly because of the war expenses.

After Minsk 2.0 failed, I believe Putin will be much less concerned with reaching an agreement with the Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians. They themselves have repeatedly stated what they must do to end the war, eliminating the "root causes" of the conflict. This will not be accepted by the West, so the only way will be victory on the battlefield, as is happening. I am sure that, in the Russian view, the initial stated objective will eventually be achieved sooner or later, but this is something we can only speculate about at the moment.

 

[j_hungary]

Hmm, I was offline for a while

Has Moscow marched close to Kyiv yet?

 

[Nuffle]

Russia is slowly taken all of Donbass. They already control 85% of the territory. What benefits will Russia get, they already lost Ukraine due to the war, lost 10,000s of equipment, 100 000s of soldiers. Unless Ukraine agrees to not join Nato, to not allow any nato troops on its land. It will be a failure. What gurantees are their that in 10 years Ukraine will again want to join nato. The war will restart again.

Also Russia is taking extra land than Donbass, possibly for negotiations.

I have my doubts as to whether the Russian advance into other oblasts is intended as a bargaining chip. The Russian position seems clear to me: advance and capture land until reaching Dnipro. If the objective of advancing were merely an irrelevant effort, some field commanders would not have reported false advances to satisfy the wishes and objectives of their superiors. Belousov ended up going to the GoF and personally assessing the complaints of fraudulent advance reports that never occurred. The initial objective ended up being only Donbas, later expanding to include the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

 

[Viet]

I was offline for a while. Any new information @Viet @F-22Raptor?

Kyiv is already on Moscow's doorstep?

You missed the most important news. For the first time ever since collapse of USSR, Russia is not worth mentioned as threat in the US national security.
Putin degrades Russia to a cheap gas station with nukes, now with official confirmation by Washington. Congrats.

 

[Nuffle]

You missed the most important news. For the first time ever since collapse of USSR, Russia is not worth mentioned as threat in the US national security.
Putin degrades Russia to a cheap gas station with nukes, now with official confirmation by Washington. Congrats.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/kremlin-says-new-us-security-strategy-accords-largely-with-russias-view-2025-12-07/

Putin seems to have loved this new security strategy. Venezuela actually appears to be a greater threat to the US than Russia.

 

[vizier]

Gripen won't arrive until 2029, and besides, it will take even longer for the aircraft to have a FOC (First Operation Cover) before it starts to have an effect. This is simply impossible in the medium term.

After Minsk 2.0 failed, I believe Putin will be much less concerned with reaching an agreement with the Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians. They themselves have repeatedly stated what they must do to end the war, eliminating the "root causes" of the conflict. This will not be accepted by the West, so the only way will be victory on the battlefield, as is happening. I am sure that, in the Russian view, the initial stated objective will eventually be achieved sooner or later, but this is something we can only speculate about at the moment.

Gripen wont arrive soon yes but what about F4E F5E and other retired aircraft from nato inventories for example Germany. They are amraam capable. Although one to one they are no match against Su35 with an awacs support from Romanian airspace they can be pretty useful over Kherson and even parts of Zaporizia. Many of these aircraft will be downed but Ukraine will care less about aircraft losses as long as sustained damage is inflicted partially or fully blocking Ruaf operations over Kherson and Crimea.

Demilitarization which are the restrictions over Ukraine that is what they can get as weapons from other countries is still possible with a ceasefire agreement. Demilitarisation objective can also be claimed as a victory from Russian side other than full capture of Donbass. Ukraine wont be getting fighter jets and similar equipment that can threaten Russia in exchange of a lasting ceasefire. Yes some countries like Britain for example can try to use loopholes and give some sensitive weapons to Ukraine but with a good monitoring system arms restrictions can be sustained effectively. It is either demilitarization of Ukraine by a ceasefire agreement or full militarisation of Ukraine with every high end equipment until whole donbas is taken and possibly conflict will still continue even after that.

 

[j_hungary]

Russia is slowly taken all of Donbass. They already control 85% of the territory. What benefits will Russia get, they already lost Ukraine due to the war, lost 10,000s of equipment, 100 000s of soldiers. Unless Ukraine agrees to not join Nato, to not allow any nato troops on its land. It will be a failure. What gurantees are their that in 10 years Ukraine will again want to join nato. The war will restart again.

Also Russia is taking extra land than Donbass, possibly for negotiations.

View attachment 164246View attachment 164247

That's because if Putin stops now, he is going to "go away" and I am not talking about retiring.

The Russian economy culture had collapsed, I can't see how they can turn 45% war production back into civilian production (So instead of making tanks, guns, and rounds, to making fridges, washing machines, and so on) that would involve a lot of FDI. And I am not sure even China will be interested in supporting that.

And even if the war ended now, you are talking about a decade of, maybe multiple decades of insurgency in Russia (which is currently happening) and occupied territories. Bear in mind, it's not the 36-hour campaign we had in Afghanistan forced us out, it's the 20 years of occupation, and at this point, the Russians weren't even at where we were at the 36th hours mark in the Afghanistan campaign. That means they are going to need to maintain that military spending, with minimal civilian input.

That's the Russian "Victory" demand, basically means they want to get everything they can, but at the same time, they can't push it lightly, as I said before, even with Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian is still holding out, and they actually made counterattack east of Pokrovsk, this is going to be multiple months ahead (as it's dead in the winter in Ukraine, you can't make progress) and it would be taking Russian around 2 years to just take that town, and it still has 4 more town to go, 2 of them are 4 times bigger than Pokrovsk.

On the other side, Ukraine won't care if they lose all of Donbas, for them this is further in to the future, and I can't see how they will cede anything to Russia unless Kyiv itself is threatened, which is not happening in the next decade or so, for Ukraine, all they need to do is to hold on to the line until a more united NATO front with US start supporting Ukraine again, and as I said before, if it takes Russia 2 years to take Pokvorsk, why would I negotiate anything now? Why don't I just wait until maybe 2027after the Mid-Term or 2028 to see if Trump or MAGA is going out? I mean, unless Russia really kicks into gear this late stage at this war (which is unheard of in the history of war) they probably would still be trying to take either Kramatosk or Sloviansk by 2028.

The fact is that the two sides don't see them as losing the war; they won't talk. Which make what either side do at this point, is pointless.