2nd looks difficult but Lebanon is a independent country, if UN can have peace keeping force then so can the Muslims with the permission of Lebanese government, Gaza is possible if Israel withdraws as its not their territory, westBank looks impossible as it's surrounded by Israeli settlements and security. The downside is after 20 years Lebanese people will fall for the propaganda and will want Muslim forces out, just like they kicked Syrian army out. Our people are foolish.
24 years ago, when the Israelis withdrew, and Hezbollah was still not so heavily armed, it could have been possible.
But now, hezbollah is a 41 year old organization with a deep bench of leadership, an heavy arsenal and the Shia majority public that has grown up supporting them knows no other way of survival, especially with the economic condition of Lebanon.
Now with Nasrullah just having been killed, that bench will take over. (He may have been the leader but the organization is so old and Nasrullah was so old, that he was already effectively “used up”. His high visibility made him no longer relevant as a field commander and only an inspiration figure). Hezbollah is now more than just a militant organization, it’s a social organization, like a state. Hezbollah is a country within Lebanon, and they will not agree with foreign troops of any background moving in on “their turf”.
This isn’t just my guess at the nature of decapitation strikes, but there is research behind how ineffective this is when the organization is this old.
the effect of decapitation decreases with the age of the group, even to a point where it may have no effect at all….Additionally, in contrast to the conventional wisdom regarding the durability of terrorist groups, politically relevant terrorist groups (defined as those with at least four attacks including one attack resulting in a fatality) endure significantly longer than previously believed.
New evidence suggests that states featuring the tactic prominently in their counterinsurgency strategy, including the United States and Israel, may be on the right track.
www.belfercenter.org
Now watch as Hezbollah will not announce their leadership, switch to a wartime comms strategy, radio chatter blackout, hunt for collaborators, and generally move to devolve command and control to lower ranks; probably battalion based, to be able to be viable under heavy pressure. In this way, the new leadership won’t be as easily known and targeted, while the real combat leaders, 2-3 ranks down, will be even more secret and combat effective.
Btw, Once the Russians intervened to protect Assad, that window of intervening to topple Assad And remove hezbollah closed.
