Analysts are hopeful the Kurdish group will shortly convene a congress to discuss Ocalan's statement, but there are wild cards such as Syria
www.middleeasteye.net
Very insightful article on this whole process, i'll try to post some excerpts.
"once the PKK or KCK formally decides to disarm and dissolve, including its armed wings in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, Ankara will shift its focus to democratic reforms, potentially easing legal pressure on Kurdish politicians."
Firat outlines the next steps: "Weapons return and registration will begin in cooperation with neighboring countries. Foreign fighters will be required to leave their host countries. Those choosing to enter politics will be integrated into their respective country’s political system. Senior KCK leaders will be relocated to third countries."
Many expect that PKK leaders may be relocated to Iraq's Suleymaniyah, a region controlled by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a political party historically friendly to the armed group.
Ogur recalls that during the 2013-2015 Turkey-PKK peace process, lists of PKK members were created, allowing those not involved in armed conflict to return to Turkey without facing charges, while senior commanders were relocated to third countries.
Firat adds that Turkey could continue military operations against the PKK and even escalate action against the SDF in Syria if the group refuses to integrate into the new Syrian government, which is close to Ankara.
According to Ogur, Abdi had been in favour of reconciliation with Ahmed al-Sharaa's administration in Damascus,
but the PKK leadership in Qandil prevented it.
"The PKK was insisting on waiting for Israel and the US," he added. "Turkey is encouraging the SDF to become a political organisation through its political wing, the Democratic Union Party [PYD], and to participate in the Syrian constitutional process, enter elections, and pursue its struggle through political means."
Its really interesting insight, Qandil seems to be preventing the Syrian Branch from reconciling with Damascus, and is trying to get help from Israel and the US. So Ocalan sending a message to Qandil to disarm should in theory also facilitate these guys allowing the reconciliation in Syria.
This process is apparently going to take months, this who PKK conference is apparently supposed to be held in March. Its a bit too slow for my liking.
