Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[Foinikas]

This is the first time I'm hearing this from you. lol

I've said it before in the old forum. It's the only point that we can actually work out.

 

[Foinikas]

The Current Claims may not necessarily be what is agreed to later. Its an opening element in a bargaining negotiation, i don't think Turkey expects to get everything in a negotiation. I think its a first position in a negotiation, and then you meet somewhere in the middle.

But the thing is,Turkey always claims something out of nowhere,claiming too much in order to negotiate and get something out of nothing. That's been going on for years.

 

[hyperman]

But the thing is,Turkey always claims something out of nowhere,claiming too much in order to negotiate and get something out of nothing. That's been going on for years.

Well Turkey never signed UNCLOS so that element was always known.

There is a new treaty btw that replaces UNCLOS, it was created in 2023, but I don't think Turkey will sign that either.

High Seas Treaty - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sinan]

Unfortunately,it's not so simple. For the EEZ around Kastelorizo,I think a deal could be found. A solution. For Cyprus too maybe. But I'm the Aegean,no it's impossible. By all the Treaties since Lausanne,we have the right to our EEZ and Turkey only gets 3 naval miles from the coast,as well as Imbros,Tenedos and the Rabbit Islands.

The problem is that AKP has been promoting Mavi Vatan as the official government doctrine and together with Bahceli,they are talking about "occupied islands" and implying the reversal of treaties. Apart from that they also want invented a ridiculous "common EEZ" with Libya, bypassing southeastern Greece and Egypt,somehow reaching Libya which is directly south of Greece.

You didn't understood a thing i said......

 

[Foinikas]

You didn't understood a thing i said......

I only told you there are certain problems which prevent relations from going further in other sectors. You know that tourism and trade between Greece and Turkey is very developed and quite normal. Closer relations in every sector is not possible due to lack of trust,because of these issues.

 

[hyperman]

I only told you there are certain problems which prevent relations from going further in other sectors. You know that tourism and trade between Greece and Turkey is very developed and quite normal. Closer relations in every sector is not possible due to lack of trust,because of these issues.

Greece is trying to block at every element thought by trying to make every agreement with the EU have to go through a Greek Veto. Stuff that has very little relation to Greece even.

 

[Foinikas]

Greece is trying to block at every element thought by trying to make every agreement with the EU have to go through a Greek Veto. Stuff that has very little relation to Greece even.

So what you want us to do is promote every Turkish endeavour,support them, give them half the Aegean,allow them to have an Illegal EEZ up to Libya? When someone is methodically creating problems in order to extort more territory and concessions from you, what should you do,just stand there and clap?

 

[hyperman]

So what you want us to do is promote every Turkish endeavour,support them, give them half the Aegean,allow them to have an Illegal EEZ up to Libya? When someone is methodically creating problems in order to extort more territory and concessions from you, what should you do,just stand there and clap?

that previous statement was a retort to this statement.

"You know that tourism and trade between Greece and Turkey is very developed and quite normal."

My point was Greece doesn't compartmentalize(as the other gentleman also referenced), but goes for scorched earth Maximalist Pressure campaigns, involving matter that don't even affect Greece that much.

 

[Oublious]

Greece, ordered F35 but you do not have the money for ammuniton.

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[Foinikas]

that previous statement was a retort to this statement.

"You know that tourism and trade between Greece and Turkey is very developed and quite normal."

My point was Greece doesn't compartmentalize(as the other gentleman also referenced), but goes for scorched earth Maximalist Pressure campaigns, involving matter that don't even affect Greece that much.

What doesn't affect Greece? Don't tell me about the Kurds again...

 

[Foinikas]

Greece, ordered F35 but you do not have the money for ammuniton.

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Don't get me started with the morons...happy government obsessed with getting F-35 and everybody is asking "why no weapons in the package?"

 

[hyperman]

What doesn't affect Greece? Don't tell me about the Kurds again...

Yes the PKK insurgency. After There were attacks from ISIS and PKK inside Turkey, Turkey requested NATO help for an action plan for its defense, similarly to the Baltic plan for Baltic States, Greece blocked it.

How does blocking a response from NATO in protecting against ISIS and PKK serve Greece? but Greece did it anyways out of spite.

 

[Eşbah]

Don't get me started with the morons...happy government obsessed with getting F-35 and everybody is asking "why no weapons in the package?"

I have a different perspective on your overall evaluation of Greek military procurements, but in this particular instance, I believe you are absolutely correct.

Any potential conflict between Türkiye and Greece will ultimately hinge on each side's ability to deploy fighter jets, missiles, and bombs effectively at the front lines.

Greece's current strategy of maintaining a qualitative advantage over Türkiye is misguided, as it is prohibitively expensive and unsustainable in a wartime context. Moreover, the Turkish defense industry is rapidly advancing, which diminishes the effectiveness of the costly foreign weapons Greece acquires. What if Türkiye also secures F35s?

The Greek strategy lacks a long-term vision necessary for success.

Greek policymakers seem oblivious to the geographical realities of the Aegean Sea, which fundamentally shape any confrontation with Türkiye.

A few dozen F35s will not deter Turkish leaders. Acquiring double the number of F16s or the latest Eurofighters would make a significant impact from our military's perspective.

Purchasing F35s does not mitigate the risk of war; in fact, it may increase it. While this may seem counterintuitive to some, it reinforces my argument.

Investing in an expensive fighter jet along with costly missiles to engage a large and agile adversary is a risky strategy. For a nation like Türkiye, neutralizing such threats is a feasible task.

Tldr; Greece is not acting smart although it has every ingredient to effectively counter Türkiye.

 

[Foinikas]

The Greek strategy lacks a long-term vision necessary for success.

That's true. It was ok in the '80s,ok in the early 2000s,but afterwards,everything was dropped. The Hellenic Defence Industry which was pretty good in the 80s and 90s,was ignored,promising projects for example for indigenous AT,UAVs and armored vehicles were abandoned and...even on the "buy from the self" option,for some weird reasons our governments didn't show much interest.

For example,from the early 2000s,we were supposed to get 400-450 Marder 1A3/A5 from the Germans. Back then Germans didn't care much,remember how they gave Greece and Turkey Leopard 1s and 2s by the hundreds? For some weird reason (and I'm laughing now),for more than 10 years this case was left like this. Nobody cared to buy them. They only woke up in 2022-2023 when Germans were desperately asking weapons for Ukraine and were willing to do a triangular trade. What did we get? 40 Marder 1A3. Aaah well done bright minds! We finally got a modern IFV after 30 years. And a great amount! An entire fleet of 40! (laughing)

Of course the Germans wouldn't give more after that. They realized they needed every last vehicle they had. You know why we were so slow to even get 40 Marder 1A3 IFVs?
Because various leftist AND right-wing parties in the parliament were against the deal and telling the common folk: "The government is disarming the islands! The government wants to give BMPs to Ukraine! The government is leaving the islands unarmed and sending M113s which only have a machine-gun!"

Yes,this is the kind of stuff we had here back then. The leftists were saying "no weapons to Ukraine" and the right-wing parties were saying "They are trading the BMPs for German vehicles with only a 20mm gun!"

*facepalm*

Any potential conflict between Türkiye and Greece will ultimately hinge on each side's ability to deploy fighter jets, missiles, and bombs effectively at the front lines.

Yes,you are very right. And if the conflict drags on for more than a week or two,we're smashed. But to be honest,a long war between Greece and Turkey would not be allowed,theoretically at least,because it could cause problems in trade,you know,the Straits,Eastern Mediterranean...

We probably always thought we should defend long enough for a ceasefire to be imposed or for some allies to come to our help. The last one is probably the least possible option,unless interests align.

Greek policymakers seem oblivious to the geographical realities of the Aegean Sea, which fundamentally shape any confrontation with Türkiye.

Yes but still many consider the Aegean with its many islands,as giving us an advantage in naval warfare. Hiding small ships behind islands and islets,putting anti-ship missile batteries here and there. Personally,I think that's not as easy as it sounds. Others are thrilled about it,thinking we can turn the Aegean into a big trap for the Turkish Navy. Maybe we can,we have very capable sailors. But I think the Turkish UAVs and UCAVs have changed the landscape dramatically. What good is hiding here and there if they can see you from above. To prevent that,you need a good AA shield,EW systems and modern radars. Or you need to have aircraft flying all day. We can't do that.
And then there's the Turkish submarines which are getting better than ours,while we have some 5 obsolete submarines and no plans to buy any new ones yet.

A few dozen F35s will not deter Turkish leaders. Acquiring double the number of F16s or the latest Eurofighters would make a significant impact from our military's perspective.

I know,but we have some people here who think F-35 will give us absolute dominance in the skies. You know,like silly Youtube comments "with F-35 we fly over Ankara when we want". I think the F-35 are an unnecessary expense now. But I don't know. There's a lot of people fighting about it online. Just like in Turkey years ago. One side is calling it a superweapon,absolute dominance in the air,super radar,stealth,best missiles and the others say it's an overpriced trashcan,it needs a lot of money to maintain,Americans can lock it whenever they want,Americans won't give us the weapons we want etc.

Investing in an expensive fighter jet along with costly missiles to engage a large and agile adversary is a risky strategy. For a nation like Türkiye, neutralizing such threats is a feasible task.

You know...there's a guy on a greek site,he said once that "it's better to buy 60 F-35s and forget all the rest,AA systems,navy,artillery". I've "debated" him many times on the matter,he insists it's wasted money to spend billions in AA because you're just "waiting to get hit",while with the F-35 we will have offensive capabilities and preventive power.

I asked him: "And what if the Turks destroy the F-35s on the ground?" He kept insisting it can't happen because we'll have a first strike capability.

I presented him with a scenario. I told him,what if the Turks send waves of UCAVs and loitering munitions,ballistic missiles and F-16s to take out all the air bases? I kept asking him if he knows about the 1967 War,he kept mocking him.

My point was,he thought spending money on air defence and navy is a waste. Another day he told me on the same subject,that Turkish UAVs can't pass,they will be detected by the air defences. I told him how,if we have obsolete AA systems and radars,they'll smash us. But no,he insists that F-35s are all you need to prevent a war.

 

[hyperman]

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