Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[hyperman]

It's weird because,apart from WWII when the Ustashe Croatia and Italian Albania were fighting on the same side and maybe even cooperated a few times,they haven't had any traditional contact or alliance in modern history. It was more likely for Croatians to ally themselves and have good relations with the Bosnian Muslims,rather than Albanians.

Anyway,interesting development.

Neither of those are threats, the threat for Croatia for its interests, whether the border dispute or the Bosnia matter, the threat is Serbian. This has more to do that than anything to do with Albanians specifically.

 

[hyperman]

I don't think the Serbs would go on a new war. Not without having the full support of Russia or at least without getting the green light from the US and other countries in NATO,that they won't interfere and Kosovo is let's say "fair game" for them to retake it.

Other than that,I don't think anyone in NATO or the EU would let the Serbs start a war against Croatia. Kosovo yes,but not Croatia.

Serbia is inciting a matter with republika srpska, they want to break away and join Serbia to finish what they were trying to do in the 90s, unfortunately the only want to connect those areas is to take Brcko, which will get ugly.

I don't think Serbia can retake Kosovo, the Albanians and Turks will intervene if no one else from NATO intervenes, thought I believe the UK would be willing to intervene, they are Kosovo's strongest advocate in NATO outside of Turkey historically.

 

[Foinikas]

Serbia is inciting a matter with republika srpska, they want to break away and join Serbia to finish what they were trying to do in the 90s, unfortunately the only want to connect those areas is to take Brcko, which will get ugly.

Theoretically,they could find a solution to that,maybe have northern Brcko given to them as a narrow corridor. I know the whole place is a corridor,but...they could still work something peaceful out.

I don't think Serbia can retake Kosovo, the Albanians and Turks will intervene if no one else from NATO intervenes, thought I believe the UK would be willing to intervene, they are Kosovo's strongest advocate in NATO outside of Turkey historically.

I was talking about if the US and other big countries in NATO and the EU gave them the green light. If they ended up fed up with Kosovo's corruption and Albanian nationalism both in Albania and Kosovo,they could let the Serbs go in. That's all theoretical of course,just saying. Then Turkey would have had to act one-sided,but that would probably draw more countries in the conflict as well on the Serbian side,maybe Russians,maybe Hungarians,Greeks too. Not directly,probably indirectly.

But anyway,I don't think Serbs have the strength or political will to try and start a war on their own right now. Then again...the current Serbian government is about to fall and a war could misdirect the people's attention...

 

[hyperman]

Theoretically,they could find a solution to that,maybe have northern Brcko given to them as a narrow corridor. I know the whole place is a corridor,but...they could still work something peaceful out.

There is nothing to be Given, Them being given their own autonomous republic with the current borders is itself enough considering how things looked before the war. There is no legitimacy in them trying to displace more people for their ridiculous delusions. They will not be allowed to do what they did in Srebrenica to Brcko.

 

[hyperman]

I was talking about if the US and other big countries in NATO and the EU gave them the green light. If they ended up fed up with Kosovo's corruption and Albanian nationalism both in Albania and Kosovo,they could let the Serbs go in. That's all theoretical of course,just saying. Then Turkey would have had to act one-sided,but that would probably draw more countries in the conflict as well on the Serbian side,maybe Russians,maybe Hungarians,Greeks too. Not directly,probably indirectly.

But anyway,I don't think Serbs have the strength or political will to try and start a war on their own right now. Then again...the current Serbian government is about to fall and a war could misdirect the people's attention...

idk what sort of "Green Light" they would be given, considering The US, UK and almost all the EU/NATO states recognized the independence of Kosovo. Even if you assume the US and EU states decided to stand back and not intervene, I don't think Serbia would be successful, maybe they could take Northern Kosovo in the Serbian majority areas, but they would not be successful in other area, b/c what would happen is Albania would intervene immediately, followed by a Turkish deployment. The Serbian Armed forces(all branches combined) are only about 22,000 people. This is not an army that can afford to fight 3 different countries at the same time in an Offensive campaign where they have to penetrate areas with essentially an all Albanian population.

Kosovo for me is not a issue where there would be significant trouble in intervening for Turkey, the real difficult element is an intervention into Bosnia, which is difficult to do unilaterally, b/c it requires cooperation with/dependence on Croatia.

 

[Foinikas]

idk what sort of "Green Light" they would be given, considering The US, UK and almost all the EU/NATO states recognized the independence of Kosovo.

It's a completely hypothetical scenario.

I don't think Serbia would be successful, maybe they could take Northern Kosovo in the Serbian majority areas, but they would not be successful in other area, b/c what would happen is Albania would intervene immediately, followed by a Turkish deployment.

Interesting comment. Now,if they launched an operation to retake Kosovo,I think they would succeed. Even if Albania intervened.

The only serious factor here is what you mentioned about a Turkish deployment. If Turkey intervened,that would have changed everything. If Turkey rushed to send heavy forces,that would be a completely different conflict. Albania,I think Serbia can take care of pretty easily. They still haven't rebuilt their Armed Forces to a strong level. They did make some good purchases,like TB2s and Javelin. They were given some Humvees and helicopters,but they lack fighter jets and modern armored vehicles. Even their tanks,if they still have them in storage or reserve,are mostly old Type 59s. Serbs have a lot of modern artillery,they have a basic Air Force,they have a lot of armored vehicles. They are ok. Kosovo has mostly light arms and policing forces. It would be an interesting conflict if the Albania went full-on there.

But if Turkey joined,that would be completely different. That would be a game-changer,
that would turn Serbia into the "defender". A modern army with vast military forces. We're talking about F-16s,Leopard 2A4,Leopard 1T Volkan,maybe M60T Sabra deploying there. They could bring T129 Atak and dozens of UAVs.

There is nothing to be Given, Them being given their own autonomous republic with the current borders is itself enough considering how things looked before the war.

That's why I said "they could work out a solution",instead of going to war. Like,giving them a very narrow strip on the northernmost part of the province for example. Isn't that what Azerbaijan and Turkey want from Armenia too? Zanzengur?

hey will not be allowed to do what they did in Srebrenica to Brcko.

Don't start the melodrama now,not going back to that discussion.

 

[Eşbah]

Ankara-Iravan rapprochement: Türkiye's steps that disappoint Azerbaijan

Ankara-Iravan rapprochement: Türkiye's steps that disappoint Azerbaijan

en.apa.az

They opened the border for 10 days to allow Armenian humanitarian relief to reach Syria.

 

[Eşbah]

Romania

Greece

Hungary

Türkiye

Serbia

Macedonia

Welcome to the Balkan 2025.

 

[Foinikas]

Romania

Greece

Hungary

Türkiye

Serbia

Macedonia

Welcome to the Balkan 2025.

Ya kardes,please don't write "Makedonya" there,it's just not right.

In other news,there appeared articles on Greek defence sites about Trump offering F-35 to Turkey. The comments are hilarious.

 

[hyperman]

Ya kardes,please don't write "Makedonya" there,it's just not right.

In other news,there appeared articles on Greek defence sites about Trump offering F-35 to Turkey. The comments are hilarious.

It would be hilarious if a deal is made and those Turkish F-35s that are sitting in the warehouse are transferred to Turkey and b/c they are already built there is no need to wait in line and they end up with F-35s before Greece. lol

But they want Turkey to dismantle the S-400. But IMO it depends on the details, Turkey should not agree to destroy the S-400s it bought in a permanent dismantlement. If they want to mothball it that could work or even sending the system to Azerbaijan, but dismantling it to never be used again doesn't make sense.

 

[Foinikas]

It would be hilarious if a deal is made and those Turkish F-35s that are sitting in the warehouse are transferred to Turkey and b/c they are already built there is no need to wait in line and they end up with F-35s before Greece. lol

But they want Turkey to dismantle the S-400. But IMO it depends on the details, Turkey should not agree to destroy the S-400s it bought in a permanent dismantlement. If they want to mothball it that could work or even sending the system to Azerbaijan, but dismantling it to never be used again doesn't make sense.

The funny thing in the comments is that half of the Greeks want the F-35 and the other half don't want it.

But here's the irony in both sides:

Those who love the F-35,had been nagging and mocking the French,saying since they "sold us out by giving Meteor to the Turks,we should cancel all deals with France,forget the 4th FDI and sell all Rafale". However,when you scold them about not saying a word about USA's "selling out",they say "it's a different deal,we're in NATO,that's a different alliance...we would be destroying ourselves if we cancelled the F-35 order" etc.

On the other hand,those who hate the F-35 had been calling it a "bucket",a problematic fighter,failed project and we shouldn't buy it because we wouldn't be in full control of it. The Americans would control it and switch it off whenever they want etc.
So now,they are talking about betrayal and the others mock them saying "why are you worried about the bucket,shouldn't you be happy the Turks are getting such a trashy aircraft?"

You understand the conflict of opinions.

 

[hyperman]

The funny thing in the comments is that half of the Greeks want the F-35 and the other half don't want it.

But here's the irony in both sides:

Those who love the F-35,had been nagging and mocking the French,saying since they "sold us out by giving Meteor to the Turks,we should cancel all deals with France,forget the 4th FDI and sell all Rafale". However,when you scold them about not saying a word about USA's "selling out",they say "it's a different deal,we're in NATO,that's a different alliance...we would be destroying ourselves if we cancelled the F-35 order" etc.

On the other hand,those who hate the F-35 had been calling it a "bucket",a problematic fighter,failed project and we shouldn't buy it because we wouldn't be in full control of it. The Americans would control it and switch it off whenever they want etc.
So now,they are talking about betrayal and the others mock them saying "why are you worried about the bucket,shouldn't you be happy the Turks are getting such a trashy aircraft?"

You understand the conflict of opinions.

I think for Turkey The F-35 isn't crucial, I doubt Turkey gets them in the same numbers as originally planned. I think the benefit here is just an added capacity until the KAAN is ready and using the F-35 as a benchmark for KAAN development and trying to incorporate a similar sensor suite and capabilities to KAAN with experience in F-35 operations. Turkey gained quite a bit while it was part of the F-35 program, the same TAI facilities that were producing the fuselage for the F-35 are now producing the KAAN for example. And Turkey had exposure to the F-35 and sensor fusion when Turkish pilots were training on the F-35, much of that helped in configuring the KAAN and what Turkish pilots want from the KAAN. So I think operating a small amount of F-35s perhaps 2 squadrons/24 planes worth will help in that regard.

Also potentially F-35B for TCG Anadolu would be nice, there is really no replacement for the VTOL F-35B directly for Turkey, Drones are good, but on a small ship like that, they can never have the payload capacity of an F-35B and the uniqueness it brings. They have the advantage over the F-35B in other places, like they are cheaper and require less operators and can deal with attrition and endurance better, and operational costs, but not a complete replacement for VTOL.

 

[Oublious]

I think for Turkey The F-35 isn't crucial, I doubt Turkey gets them in the same numbers as originally planned. I think the benefit here is just an added capacity until the KAAN is ready and using the F-35 as a benchmark for KAAN development and trying to incorporate a similar sensor suite and capabilities to KAAN with experience in F-35 operations. Turkey gained quite a bit while it was part of the F-35 program, the same TAI facilities that were producing the fuselage for the F-35 are now producing the KAAN for example. And Turkey had exposure to the F-35 and sensor fusion when Turkish pilots were training on the F-35, much of that helped in configuring the KAAN and what Turkish pilots want from the KAAN. So I think operating a small amount of F-35s perhaps 2 squadrons/24 planes worth will help in that regard.

Also potentially F-35B for TCG Anadolu would be nice, there is really no replacement for the VTOL F-35B directly for Turkey, Drones are good, but on a small ship like that, they can never have the payload capacity of an F-35B and the uniqueness it brings. They have the advantage over the F-35B in other places, like they are cheaper and require less operators and can deal with attrition and endurance better, and operational costs, but not a complete replacement for VTOL.

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[hyperman]

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This guy is a fking comedian. lol

Its interesting he seems to be implying that the NGAD is for sale to other countries, but Idk if I believe that. lol

 

[mulj]

Not mentioning me discussing about bosnia current affairs .
Serbia has enough internal troubles they are basically in sort of massive civil disobedience and mutiny, so their capacity to intervene in potential arm clashes in Bosnia is limited, they just use local serb population and entity RS for their internal political survival.
Local serbs do not have capacity to enforce open secession and almost non existing support even from their traditional supporters.
Turkiye in particular has strong role and has perception of influential subject as well as from serbs same as by bosniacs but from obvious different reasons.
Brcko indeed is vital point for shattering whole serb plans, during last war they spent hundreds of tanks and thousand of soldiers to widen that corridor with limited success but by peace agreement all there gains are practically nullified, so to expect that today they can repeat something remotely similar is almost comical.
On wider geo political level serbs are paying price of their double face political stance in relation towards EU and Russia and it is like living mudd for them now due massive awake in EU how weak they are towards Russia, so they lost support from there too minus Hungary.
Al in all Turkiye is in comfortable situation to maintain significant influence with minimum resources engaged.