I get the point you’re making, but let’s be honest here — there’s very little doubt that Israel would hit Türkiye if it felt it had the opportunity or strategic cover. Hitting Syrian bases is one thing; striking Turkish assets directly is another. But we should never say “never.” The region changes fast, alliances shift, and nobody knows what the next decade looks like.
And that’s exactly why this whole Mecca Pact needs to be judged realistically. If Türkiye cannot even handle a tiny Israel, then what’s the point of forming a grand alliance? It would be embarrassing to talk about regional leadership while being unable to deter or respond to a country that relies heavily on US/Western backing for its operations.
The real question is: can Türkiye deal with Israel in proxy environments — Syria, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean — where Israel gets indirect support from the US and Europe? Right now, it’s hard to give a confident answer. We just saw them strike Syria and we didn’t respond. That alone tells you where things currently stand.
But in the long run, I’m quietly confident. Türkiye’s defence programmes are moving in the right direction. KAAN, TF‑2000, Hisar/Gökdeniz, early‑warning systems, electronic warfare — all of this needs another five years to fully mature. Once that ecosystem is complete, the balance of power will look very different.
At this minute? It’s complicated.
In five years? A very different story.
That’s why timing matters.
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