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May 14, 2024 -Politics & Policy

Biden’s polling denial: Why he doesn't believe he's behind​

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President Biden, in a blue suit and red tie, is seen speaking into a microphone outside the White House with bushes in the foreground.

President Biden speaks at a Rose Garden reception on Monday. Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers, and neither do many of his closest advisers, according to people familiar with the matter.
Why it matters: The dismissiveness of the poor polling is sincere, not public spin, according to Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team.
  • That bedrock belief has informed Biden's largely steady-as-she-goes campaign — even as many Democrats outside the White House are agitating for the campaign to change direction, given that Biden is polling well behind where he was four years ago.
  • The public polling simply doesn't reflect the president's support, they say.
Driving the news: In public and private, Biden has been telling anyone who will listen that he's gaining ground — and is probably up — on Donald Trump in their rematch from 2020.
  • "While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump," Biden told donors during a West Coast swing last week.
A few days earlier, confronted with some of his bad poll numbers in a rare interview with CNN, Biden offered a more sweeping indictment of polling methodology.
  • "The polling data has been wrong all along. How many — you guys do a poll at CNN. How many folks you have to call to get one response?"
Zoom in: The latest polling in the six battleground states likely to decide the presidential race — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — doesn't paint a rosy picture for Biden.
  • A new New York Times/Sienna survey, which sampled more than 4,000 people across the swing states, had Trump winning five of them among registered voters.
  • A Bloomberg News poll last month similarly found Biden trailing Trump in six of seven swing states (they also polled North Carolina).
Reality check: Some national polls have shown Biden ahead or tied with Trump — and in several other polls the president is within the surveys' margins for error. That's given Democrats and Republicans alike ammunition to claim they have momentum.
  • Biden likes to cite his numbers in a recent PBS/Marist poll, which show him ahead.
  • Polling errors in recent years prove that polling isn't destiny: Trump over-performed polls in 2016 and 2020, and Democrats did better than expected in many 2022 midterm contests.
  • Many aspects of Trump's candidacy, including his legal battles, are unprecedented — and add more mystery to election projections.
Between the lines: However he feels about all the public polls, Biden is clearly well briefed on them — and often goes deep into the cross tabs.

  • "We run strongest among likely voters in the polling data," Biden told wealthy donors in Medina on Saturday. "And while the national polls basically have us (among) registered voters up by four, (among) likely voters we're up by more."
  • "In the last 23 national polls, I've been ahead in 10 of them, Trump has been ahead in eight, and we've been tied in five," he said at a campaign event in Tampa, Florida., citing surveys by Marist, Echelon Insights and Marquette.
Zoom out: Biden and his advisers have long felt underrated by the D.C. establishment and public polls.
  • But they're comforted by his come-from-behind 2020 primary victory. Voters, when it matters, appreciate "Scranton Joe," they say.
What they're saying: "This election will be close like all presidential races are. What matters is which candidate has a popular and winning agenda, and which candidate and their campaign are putting in the work to reach the voters who will decide this election," Biden spokesperson Kevin Munoz said.
  • "That candidate is Joe Biden."
Bottom line: Some Democrats think the Biden team is in denial about the polling and sleepwalking into defeat.
  • The Biden team is convinced the country will not re-elect Trump once they face the choice in November.
  • Voters will decide which side is right.
 

Biden’s growing challenge: Voters are warming to Trump’s presidency​

Ronald Brownstein
Analysis by Ronald Brownstein, CNN
10 minute read
Published 12:00 AM EDT, Wed May 15, 2024





Former President Donald Trump attends his hush money trial in New York City on May 13, 2024.

Former President Donald Trump attends his hush money trial in New York City on May 13, 2024.
Spencer Platt/Pool/Reuters
CNN —
During Donald Trump’s four years in the White House, he was famously the only president whose job approval rating never reached 50% in Gallup Organization polls since the firm began systematically tracking that measure in the 1940s.
But now more positive retrospective assessments of Trump’s record in office are setting off warning flares for Democrats — especially as President Joe Biden’s own approval ratings remain stuck at historically low levels. In a CNN poll from April, 55% of Americans said they considered Trump’s presidency a success — a big jump from the 41% who viewed his presidency so positively when he left office in January 2021, according to a CNN survey from the time.
If Biden is to win a second term, “the fact that Trump is getting this level of credit cannot stand,” said Democratic pollster Jay Campbell, who conducts surveys on the economy with a Republican partner for CNBC.


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It’s not unusual for approval ratings of presidents to rise out of office. The difference is that none of Trump’s defeated predecessors sought to return to the White House four years later. The public’s shifting ratings of those former presidents was of interest mostly to historians; this year, these reassessments will help decide control of the White House.
Generally, Biden’s campaign has spent less time challenging Trump’s record in his first term than highlighting what he might do in a second one. But that balance appears to be shifting.
Biden’s campaign has invested heavily in emotional swing-state television advertisements that tie Trump to the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion with the stark concluding tagline: “Donald Trump did this.”
Now, Biden’s team is escalating its efforts to contrast his record against some of Trump’s other controversial initiatives. An ad aimed at Black voters that the campaign released Tuesday, for instance, juxtaposes Trump’s attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act with Biden policies that have expanded coverage, lowered premiums under the law and capped the price of insulin at $35 per month. “Trump was a failure on health care,” a narrator declares, before a Black woman in the ad says: “We cannot go back.”
Michael Tyler, the Biden campaign’s communications director, said more of those messages are coming. “This is exactly why you run a campaign,” Tyler said. “As we move forward here, reminding people of the damage he caused, the damage he will cause and how he made you feel every single day is imperative.”
Almost every president sees their retrospective approval ratings improve after they leave office; when Gallup last measured views of former presidents in 2023, each one it included except for Bill Clinton received a higher approval rating than when they left the White House. Even Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, the previous two one-term presidents before Trump, were each much more popular in the poll than when they lost their reelection bids. Trump’s recovery since leaving office is “not a completely new phenomenon,” said Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz, who specializes in studying presidential approval.
In Gallup’s poll last year, Trump’s retrospective approval rating stood at 46%. That was up 12 percentage points from his final approval rating in office of 34%. Trump’s improvement in the Gallup poll since leaving office was about the same experienced by both Carter and George W. Bush in their first Gallup post-presidential assessments.
Other surveys suggest the backward-looking judgments on Trump have further improved since then. In an April national New York Times/Siena College survey, for instance, slightly more registered voters (48%) now say Trump left the country better off than worse off (46%) after his presidency.
Nearly two-thirds of voters in the April New York Times/Siena survey said they approved of how Trump handled the economy and about half said they approved of his handling of both immigration and crime.
The April national CNN survey conducted by SRSS reported some of the most dramatic change in attitudes. From the 2021 CNN survey until last month’s poll, the share of people who termed Trump’s presidency a success increased more for women than for men; more for people of color than for White voters; more among working-age adults than seniors; and more among Democratic voters than Republican. The 55% in the recent CNN poll who termed Trump’s presidency a success far exceeded the 39% who gave the same positive verdict to Biden’s time.
Abramowitz, the political scientist, said that in today’s highly polarized political atmosphere, it’s not surprising that discontent with Biden is boosting Trump, almost in hydraulic fashion. “There’s always going to be an inverse relationship to some extent in how people assess the current president of one party versus the previous president of the opposite party, but given that partisan loyalties are stronger today, that is probably a stronger tendency now,” Abramowitz said. “If you are unhappy with how things are going now, that may influence your assessment of the previous presidency.”
Republican strategist Brad Todd likewise said that Trump, in effect, looks bigger to many voters because Biden looks smaller. “We judge presidential approval by strength and success more than anything,” Todd said. “People think the economy was better when Trump was president, whether they liked him or not, and they think Trump projected strength rather than weakness, and plenty of voters find aspects of Biden’s presidency weak.”
The Biden comparison also could be benefiting Trump in a more specific way: by encouraging voters to shift the issues around which they are judging Trump’s tenure. Because inflation, as well as immigration and crime, are much more relevant to voters today, in their retrospective judgments about Trump’s record they may be focusing more on those issues and less on other elements of his presidency that disturbed them at the time, such as his open use of racist language or the general atmosphere of chaos that surrounded his presidency, strategists in both parties said.
Jim McLaughlin, a pollster for Trump, pointed mostly to shifting public concerns and the contrast with Biden to explain these post-presidential gains for the former president.
When the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of media organizations including CNN asked voters what issue was most important to their decision in 2020, McLaughlin noted, the survey didn’t include either the cost of living or immigration as a specific choice. That omission, he said, measured how little concern there was in the country at the time about each problem.
Now, both of those issues routinely poll near the top of voters’ worries in 2024, with Biden receiving some of his weakest marks on each. To many voters, said McLaughlin, Trump “looks better and better on these issues compared to Joe Biden’s failures.”
Many Democratic pollsters say that shift in emphasis about Trump is particularly evident among Black and Hispanic voters, especially younger to middle-aged men. “Particularly among working-class Latinos. … They will tell us that they think he’s racist, xenophobic, anti-immigrant, anti-Latino,” said Ben Tulchin, who served as the principal pollster for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ two Democratic presidential campaigns. “But then they say, ‘Comma but,’ and the ‘but’ is they view his economic record more favorably than Biden’s. Maybe through rose-colored glasses, but that is a challenge the Biden campaign has.”
In that New York Times/Siena survey last month, for example, 70% of Hispanic voters said they disapproved of how Biden is handling the economy, while 74% approved of how Trump did.
Democrats acknowledge that while it is important for Biden to improve views about his own economic record, it may be difficult for him to tarnish the positive impressions most voters hold about the economy under Trump — at least before the Covid-19 pandemic struck in 2020. “I don’t know if it’s possible to impeach the state of the economy under Trump,” said Campbell. It will not be easy, he added, to say to voters, “‘Well, your memory is wrong, things were not that great in the economy under the previous guy.’ I just don’t think that will get them very far.”
Rather than trying to erase positive views on Trump’s economic performance, Campbell and other Democrats think Biden could have more success reminding voters about everything else they didn’t like about his time in office. “Economy aside, you can’t let people think the rest of life was hunky-dory under Donald Trump, because it wasn’t,” Campbell said. “His approval never got above 50% for a reason. There is plenty to dislike there and plenty that people did dislike.”
In fact, while Trump was president, polls underscored the dynamic Campbell describes. In that final CNN/SRSS poll in 2021 before Trump left office, a majority of Americans said they approved of his handling of the economy, but even so, 55% described his presidency as a failure, and just 26% said he had changed the country for the better.
The challenge for Democrats, Tulchin said, is that while current conditions are constantly reminding voters that staples like gas, groceries and rent cost less under Trump, the controversies he ignites tend to burn out faster. “What we have seen with eight or nine years of life with Trump as a presidential candidate is unless the glaring awful things he does are right in people’s faces — January 6, ‘good people on both sides’ post-Charlottesville, kids in cages — then two weeks later, it fades away,” he said. “You’ve got to force people to watch the horrific person that Trump is. They can’t look fondly back on five years ago by overlooking his character flaws, because they are major.”
The new Biden ad aimed at Black voters released Tuesday may encapsulate the campaign’s emerging approach to talking about Trump’s record. The ad takes one of the most controversial episodes of Trump’s presidency — his attempt to repeal the ACA — and uses it to create a point of comparison with Biden’s policy initiatives to expand access to health care and to lower medical costs. The same approach is evident in a new Biden ad aimed at Latino voters that contrasts the former president’s policy of separating migrant children from their parents at the border with Biden’s efforts to reunite the families.
Another example of that strategy was evident when Biden last week visited Racine, Wisconsin, where Trump had gone as president to trumpet a $10 billion investment from the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn, which never materialized. Biden was there to tout a $3.3 billion Microsoft investment in an artificial intelligence center on the site, which he offered as evidence for the success of his broader agenda to promote private-sector investment in advanced industries such as clean energy and semiconductors.
“Folks, during the previous administration, my predecessor made promises which he broke more than kept and left a lot of people behind in communities like Racine,” Biden declared. “On my watch, we make promises and we keep promises. And we leave no one behind.”
Biden’s campaign expresses optimism that by reminding Americans about Trump’s record on these fronts it can move voters — particularly in core constituencies that have drifted toward Trump such as younger Black and Hispanic men. Trump’s standing with some of these groups may wilt, these Democrats think, simply as he spends more time back in the spotlight.
But Todd, like many Republicans, believes Democrats are wrong to assume that more exposure inevitably means less support for Trump. “Democratic strategists … have been saying that for a year now,” Todd said. “I think it’s time to reevaluate that geometry.”
Refreshing voters about Trump’s prior record could add weight to all of Biden’s warnings about his future plans. Reminding college-educated voters about Trump’s record on abortion and January 6, for instance, could heighten their concern about how basic rights and democracy itself would fare in a second Trump term. Likewise, recalling for Latinos Trump’s family separation policy may add credibility to Democratic warnings about his plans to undertake a mass deportation program of undocumented immigrants, complete with internment camps. If Trump is convicted in his New York hush money trial, in which he’s pleaded not guilty, it will remind voters not only about his willingness to push the boundaries of law and morality, but also the volatility that perpetually envelops him.
What’s less clear is whether enough voters will make their decisions in November based on those concerns as opposed to the issues where polls show they now express more faith in Trump than Biden, such as inflation, the border and crime. In the end, what voters remember about Trump’s presidency may be less important than what they prioritize. The real risk for Democrats is that Biden’s present may have irrevocably changed what swing voters care most about in Trump’s past.
 

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www.vanityfair.com

Kristi Noem Apparently Still Thinks She Has a Shot at Being Trump’s VP

She told a Trump fan club on Monday that she’s a “good investment.”
www.vanityfair.com www.vanityfair.com

Kristi Noem Apparently Still Thinks She Has a Shot at Being Trump’s VP​

She told a Trump fan club on Monday that she’s a “good investment.”
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BY BESS LEVIN
MAY 14, 2024
Kristi Noem governor of South Dakota Governor speaks during an event at Mount Rushmore National Memorial in Keystone...

BY AL DRAGO/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES.


Once upon a time, South Dakota governor Kristi Noem was on a short list of individuals whom Donald Trump was considering as his 2024 running mate. Then a tale of her dog (and goat) killing came out, and her fortunes changed very, very dramatically. On Fox Business, anchor Stuart Varney informed the governor that the network had “been consumed with emails saying, ‘I won’t vote for this person. I won’t vote for Trump if he puts her in the vice presidential spot.’” On Newsmax, host Rob Finnerty told Noem, to her face, that he didn’t think she had a shot in hell. “Haven’t seen a more public suicide than Jim Jones at Jonestown,” a Trumpworld source told the Daily Beast, adding that Noem’s odds of becoming Trump’s VP were now “less than zero.” Yet despite the extremely clear writing on the wall, it appears that Noem still believes she actually has a chance at the number two job.
Speaking to Club 47, a literal Donald Trump fan club, on Monday, the woman now best known for shooting her dog made the case that she is a “good investment” and will do “everything [she] can” to help reelect Trump. “I’ve won 12 campaigns now,” Noem said, according to Politico. “So I don’t know how to lose. I just win. That’s all we do.” Elsewhere in the speech, she reportedly claimed she and Trump share a special bond, noting that they complain about the media to each other “all the time.” Noem also reportedly took a dig at certain people who are said to be under consideration for VP after previously running against Trump and suggesting they’d “do a better job” as president. “Now they’re back on your team, aren’t they—begging for help?” she told the crowd she told Trump. “‘Oh, Mr. President, we think you’re so fantastic,’” she went on, impersonating the candidates. “Why would you run against him then? He obviously was the right plan from the beginning.”

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Debra Tomarin of Palm Beach, who pointedly brought her dog to the event, told Politico she would prefer Rep. Tim Scott to be Trump’s running mate, saying: “Most people that are animal lovers wouldn’t vote for her.” She added, “Some things you just don’t put in a book.” Another attendee, who only gave her name as Gina, was unbothered by the dog-killing story, saying, “She’s a rancher—that’s what they do.” (Though Noem has urged people to read her new book, the anecdote describing the grisly killing of her 14-month-old wirehair pointer apparently comes off even “worse in context.”)

For his part, Trump appears content to drag out his veepstakes as long as possible, likely up until the Republican National Convention in July. At that point, he could make his running mate Scott, Senator J.D. Vance, Senator Marco Rubio, Rep. Byron Donalds, or Rep. Elise Stefanik. Or maybe he’ll name someone whom no one is even thinking of; as Trump himself has said, he doesn’t really think it matters one way or another. But it’s probably not going to be Kristi Noem.
 

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