United States elections 2024

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Biden lags behind in all of the key battleground states by 4-point average: new poll

The survey notes that a “qualified Democrat younger than Biden” would likely beat Trump 53% to 47%.

nypost.com

Biden lags behind in all of the key battleground states by 4-point average: new poll​

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Published July 8, 2024, 12:34 p.m. ET
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President Biden is trailing Donald Trump in all of the most competitive battleground states, according to new polling sponsored by a liberal group.
But the survey notes that a “qualified Democrat younger than Biden” would likely beat Trump 53% to 47%.
On average, Biden is behind Trump by roughly 4 percentage points in the six key states: Pennsylvania (43% to 48%), Georgia (42% to 47%), Michigan (44% to 45%), Arizona (42% to 46%), Wisconsin (44% to 47%) and Nevada (41% to 47%), according to the poll by Emerson College and sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation.
North Carolina, which is typically also considered a battleground state, was not included in the mix.
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President Biden has been adamant that he will prove his naysayers wrong.STEVE APPS/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock























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The total votes involved 2,560 for the 81-year-old Biden and 2,800 for Trump, 78, meaning the ex-prez garnered a 9.4% higher total vote count.

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When asked about the ideal age to serve as president, 5.5% said 30s, 15.8% said 40s, 42.3% said 50s, 26.9% said 60s, and 6.8% said 70s.
A paltry 27% of individuals sampled in the swing states felt that Biden isn’t “too old to be an effective president based on how he did in the debate” June 27 against Trump.
Among those 29 and younger, only 18% felt that way, while 30% of those 65-plus dittoed that.
Democrats have faced a reckoning over Biden’s age after his debate performance, in which he bumbled his way through certain sentences, made several gaffes and appeared to lose his train of thought.
A handful of prominent Democrats have called on him to step aside, contending that another candidate would fare better against Trump. Biden has insisted he will stay in and defeat Trump.
In terms of voter motivation, 17.4% of Democrats said their main reason was liking a candidate, compared to 29.2% of Republicans who said the same.
Meanwhile, 31.2% of Democrats said their motivation was disliking a candidate compared to 16% of Republicans who felt the same way.
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Donald Trump has largely avoided the spotlight after the debate as the firestorm around Biden’s performance rages.Getty Images
Democrats for the Next Generation has publicly highlighted Biden’s pledge to be “a bridge to the next generation of leaders” as the group promotes younger rising stars in the party.
The Biden-vs.-Trump findings corroborate the latest aggregates in RealClearPolitics, which has Trump up by 6.4 points in Arizona, 5.2 points in Nevada, 1 point in Wisconsin, tied in Michigan, up 4.5 points in Pennsylvania, 3.7 points in Georgia and 5.8 points in North Carolina in a five-way race also featuring independent hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West.
RCP also has Biden behind Trump (37.6% 42.5%) in a five-way national race.
Biden has shrugged off that bleak polling. Notably, RCP had him leading nationally ahead of the 2020 election.
“Do you think polling data [is] as accurate as it used to be?” Biden asked ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos during an interview Friday when confronted with his subpar standing. “All the pollsters I talk to tell me it’s a toss-up.
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A chorus of Democrats were rattled by Biden’s debate performance against Trump last month.REUTERS
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“I don’t buy that,” he added of polling showing him down in the national vote.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 individuals in each of the six states between June 30 and July 2 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

 

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July 2024 National Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 43% - Emerson Polling

Trump 49%, Harris 43% The latest Emerson College Polling survey finds former President Donald Trump…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

July 2024 National Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 43%​

July 9th, 2024

Home Polls July 2024 National Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 43%

Trump 49%, Harris 43%
The latest Emerson College Polling survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a national matchup, 46% to 43%; 11% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, 50% support Trump and 50% support Biden.

“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”
With third-party candidates on the ballot, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 6% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively.
Voter motivation varies by race, age and party:

• 78% of Republicans are extremely motivated, compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
• 79% of white voters are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, compared to 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters.
• Generally, as age increases, so does the percentage of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote: 39% of people ages 18 to 29 are “extremely” motivated to vote, 49% of 30 to 39-year-olds, 72% of 40 to 49-year-olds, 76% of 50 to 59-year-olds, 91% of 60 to 69-year-olds, and 83% of people ages 70 and older.

A series of prominent Democrats were tested in a head-to-head ballot against Donald Trump:

• Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
• Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
• California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
• Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
• Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
• Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
• Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
• Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
• Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided

President Biden’s job approval increased two points since last month, from 37% to 39%, while his disapproval dropped one point, from 53% to 52%.
A majority of voters (56%) think the U.S. foreign policy is worse now than it was four years ago. Twenty-seven percent think foreign policy is better now; 17% think it is about the same.
“Perception of the status of U.S. foreign policy varies by party: 48% of Democrats think foreign policy is better now than four years ago, 87% of Republicans think it is worse, while 54% of independents think it is worse,” Kimball noted.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted July 7-8, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,370, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.

 

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https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4762384-trump-rips-fox-news-polls-cnn/

Trump rips Fox News over ‘fake’ polls: ‘I do better with CNN’​

BY DOMINICK MASTRANGELO - 07/09/24 3:46 PM ET
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Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Chesapeake, Va., Friday, June 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Former President Trump tore into Fox News on Tuesday over its coverage of a poll showing him beating President Biden in a head-to-head match-up but losing to Vice President Harris.
“FoxNews will put up Fake Confidential Democrat Polls that were ‘leaked’ to them, but not Rasmussen or any of the REAL polling groups that have me way ahead,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website. “What’s up with FOX? I do better with CNN!!!”
The former president appeared to reference a poll conducted by Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi showing him narrowly trailing Harris in a head-to-head match-up.
Fox anchor John Roberts highlighted the poll during a segment on “America Reports” on Tuesday.
Trump has for months ridiculed Fox, the top-watched cable news channel, accusing it of trying to boost his political enemies during the GOP primary and offering coverage that is too critical of him.
Several of Fox’s top hosts remain vocally supportive of Trump, including prime-time pundit Sean Hannity, who presented an interview with the former president on his show this week.

 

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Trump drops major hint on his running mate, and timing of announcement

With the Republican National Convention set to kick off in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in less than one week, former President Trump is dropping hints about his running mate and timing of the announcement

www.foxnews.com

Trump drops major hint on his running mate, and timing of announcement​

Trump tells Fox News' 'Hannity' that when it comes to naming his running mate, 'I’d love to do it during the convention'​

By Paul Steinhauser Fox News
Published July 9, 2024 11:20am EDT

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Former President Trump reflects on President Biden's debate performance, the border crisis and when he would like to reveal his vice presidential pick on 'Hannity.'
With the Republican National Convention set to kick off in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in less than one week, speculation is soaring regarding whom former President Trump will name as his running mate, and when he'll make the announcement.
And the former president is giving some hints.
"I’d love to do it during the convention," Trump said during an appearance on Fox News' "Hannity."

But Trump, in his Monday night interview, added that "my people say that’s a little complicated."
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Former President Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, speaks during a rally at Greenbrier Farms on June 28, 2024, in Chesapeake, Virginia. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
"Probably a little before the convention, but not much. It could even be during the convention that we’d do it," he reiterated.
As for whom he'll choose, Fox News' host Sean Hannity mentioned four names that are generally considered to be on Trump's short list – Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, JD Vance of Ohio, and Tim Scott of South Carolina, as well as North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
"The names that you mentioned, absolutely they’re under consideration," the former president responded.
TRUMP AND HIS ALLIES TURN UP THE VOLUME ON BIDEN AFTER STAYING RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE DEBATE
And he added that "we have a lot of good people. As they call it, we have a great bench in the Republican Party."

"I haven’t made a final decision, but I have some ideas as to where we’re going," Trump emphasized.
Video
That's different from what Trump said last month, during a campaign stop in Philadelphia, when he explained that he had made up his mind about who would be his running mate, but that he hadn't told that person.
"In my mind, yeah," Trump said when asked by NBC News if he had decided on his running mate.
When asked if the person he has picked is aware, the former president responded, "No, nobody knows."
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
The former president, in his Fox News interview on Monday, said his running mate would be "a person that can do a fantastic job as president" as well as "somebody that helps you get elected, and there’s nothing wrong with that."
Trump, who in May was convicted of 34 felony counts in the first criminal trial in the nation's history of a former or current president, has appeared to revel in the intrigue and speculation surrounding his decision on naming a vice presidential nominee, as he continues to offer hints.

Multiple sources in Trump's political orbit who have talked with Fox News have shared various opinions on which contenders are considered the frontrunners. But three names continue to come up – Burgum, Vance and Rubio.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, left, and Sens. JD Vance, center, of Ohio, and Marco Rubio, of Florida, are generally considered to be among the frontrunners in the race to serve as former President Trump's 2024 running mate. (Getty Images)
Rubio will team up with Trump on Tuesday evening at a campaign rally at Trump's Doral golf club near Miami, Florida.
On Saturday the former president will hold a rally near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, not far from the Ohio border. But there's no word at this time if Vance will join Trump at the campaign event.

Trump's campaign continues to push back on the rampant speculation.
"Anyone claiming to know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying, unless the person is named Donald J. Trump," Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes told Fox News.

 

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