United States elections 2024
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Yommie
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Georgia tilts toward Trump, NC too close to call in new poll
BY SARAH FORTINSKY - 09/09/24 7:40 PM ET
This combination photo shows Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at an event, Aug. 15, 2024, in Bedminster, N.J., left, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign event in Raleigh, N.C., Aug. 16, 2024. (AP Photo)
Former President Trump maintains a slight edge over Vice President Harris in Georgia, but the race in North Carolina remains too close to call, according to a pair of polls released Monday from Quinnipiac University.
Trump leads Harris by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, in Georgia among likely voters, while independent candidate Cornel West and third-party candidate Claudia De la Cruz each get 1 percent.
Harris, meanwhile, leads Trump by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent, in North Carolina among likely voters, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein getting 1 percent support. Harris’s 3-point lead remains within the margin of error, making the result statistically insignificant.
In hypothetical two-way matchups in both states, the race is too close to call. In Georgia, Harris gains 1 point, 49 percent to 46 percent, narrowing Trump’s lead to 3 points. In North Carolina, each candidate gains a point, giving Harris the same 3-point lead.
“With 32 Electoral votes to offer between them, North Carolina and Georgia loom large among the potential pathways to the presidency and neither state offers a clear-cut favorite,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a press release.
Trump maintains similar levels of party support in both states, with 93 percent of Republicans backing him in Georgia, and 94 percent of Republicans backing him in North Carolina.
Harris, meanwhile, has unified Democratic support in North Carolina (99 percent), while independents in the state break clearly for Trump, 47 percent to Harris’s 42 percent.
Harris has 94 percent support in Georgia, while independents are split, 46 percent backing each candidate.
This is Quinnipiac’s first time during the 2024 election cycle surveying likely voters in Georgia and North Carolina and can, therefore, not be compared to earlier results.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average in Georgia, Trump and Harris are exactly tied, with 48.4 percent support. The polling average in North Carolina has Trump ahead by 0.4 percentage points, 48.4 percent to Harris’s 48 percent.
Reached for comment in response to these surveys, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung referred The Hill to election handicapper Nate Silver’s latest forecast, which puts Trump’s chances of winning the election at 64.4 percent and his chances of winning North Carolina at 76 percent and chances in Georgia at 69 percent.
The Quinnipiac polls were conducted on Sept. 4-8, 2024 and included 940 likely voters in North Carolina and 969 likely voters in Georgia. The margins of error for both surveys is 3.2 percentage points.
Updated at 7:44 pm.
Yommie
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Donald Trump holds two swing state leads before debate, poll shows
The former president has a slight lead in two critical battleground states heading into Tuesday's debate against Vice President Kamala Harris.
www.newsweek.com
Donald Trump Holds Two Swing State Leads Before Debate, Poll Shows
Published Sep 09, 2024 at 5:01 PM EDT Updated Sep 09, 2024 at 6:48 PM EDTKamala Harris Lists Positions Ahead of Debate, Tears Into Project 2025
By Kaitlin Lewis
Night Reporter
Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in two critical swing states ahead of this year's presidential election, according to a poll published on Monday.
The survey, conducted by the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA between September 5 and 6, found that Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, was leading Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in Georgia by 2 points (47 to 45 percent) and North Carolina by 1 point (48 to 47 percent).
Both polls are based on the responses of at least 647 registered U.S. voters residing in their respective states. Georgia's poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percent, while North Carolina's margin of error is 3.7 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris' campaign for comment via email.
Harris and Trump, meanwhile, will face each other for their first debate Tuesday evening in Philadelphia hosted by ABC News. The vice president has held the momentum in the 2024 election since launching her campaign in late July after President Joe Biden stepped down from this year's race and endorsed her. However, polling shows Trump and Harris locked in a neck-and-neck race to the White House.
A survey by Patriot Polling conducted between September 1 and 3 found that Harris and Trump are in a "dead heat" across the seven swing states that Biden flipped by a narrow margin during the 2020 election. According to the pollster, Trump is set to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Harris is set to narrowly win Michigan and Wisconsin.
Per RealClear Polling's averages, as of Monday afternoon, Trump is slightly ahead of Harris in Arizona by 1.6 points (48.4 to 46.8 percent) and in North Carolina by just 0.7 points (47.9 to 47.2 percent). Harris holds a small lead in Nevada (48 to 47.4 percent), Michigan (48.3 to 47.1 percent), Georgia (48.3 to 48.2 percent) and Wisconsin (48.7 to 47.2 percent). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania at 47.6 percent, according to the polling analysis site.
Overall, in a multi-candidate race, RealClear Polling finds that Harris is in the lead across national polling by 1.9 percent on average (47 to 45.1 percent). That average is based on polling responses where third-party candidates are also included on the ballot, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Trump.
Former President Donald Trump takes part in a town hall moderated by Fox News in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on September 4. Trump holds a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in two critical swing states... More MANDEL NGAN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
The polling site FiveThirtyEight also finds that Harris is leading Trump among national polling (47.2 to 44.4 percent), but some experts have warned that Trump may be under-polling similar to his campaigns in 2016 and 2020, when preliminary polls did not accurately estimate the former president's support come Election Day.
Polling analyst Nate Silver, who is the founder of ABC News' poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, said on Sunday in his latest Silver Bulletin update that recent polling shows that the momentum has started to shift from Harris to Trump. In his blog post, Silver pointed to the latest poll by The New York Times and Siena College, which found Trump leading Harris nationally 48 to 47 percent.
Silver, who is no longer affiliated with ABC News or FiveThirtyEight, noted that with roughly eight weeks until the election, the momentum could again shift in Harris' favor, including after events like Tuesday night's debate.
"Debates are often judged relative to expectations," he added.
When reached for comment on Monday afternoon, Trump's campaign shared a statement from Republican National Committee (RNC) spokesperson Taylor Rogers, who said over email that "voters across the country know they were better off four years ago under President Trump."
"Even after $250 million in ad spending over just the past seven weeks, the polls show Kamala cannot make up for four years of her failed and radical agenda," Rogers said in the email to Newsweek. "In November, Americans will retire dangerously liberal Kamala Harris and send President Trump back to the White House."
Update 09/09/24, 6:48 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from RNC spokesperson Taylor Rogers.
Yommie
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Trump ‘fine-tuning theatrics’ before Harris debate
The vice-president, meanwhile, is practising how to handle Trump's attacks while trying out lines designed to rattle him.
www.bbc.com
Trump 'fine-tuning theatrics' before Harris debate
7 hours agoShare
Katty Kay
US special correspondent
2:08
Watch: Why muted mics won’t help Trump or Harris at debate
American presidential debates aren't won on policy.
I've covered six presidential elections and have never seen a debate where one candidate emerged as the winner because they made an outstanding policy proposal.
Sure, the ABC News moderators at Tuesday's debate will ask Donald Trump and Kamala Harris earnest questions about tax cuts and foreign affairs.
But what viewers always focus on are the moments where one candidate has a zinger of a line, or somehow unnerves their opponent, or simply seems more in control.
This is perhaps why an adviser to Trump tells me the former president hasn't spent his prep time brushing up on policy.
Instead, he's been "fine-tuning the theatrics of his performance". If there's one thing that Trump understands well, it's television audiences.
He has also been on a presidential debate stage six times already.
For Kamala Harris, this poses a problem. This is her debut. She has not had much rehearsal time and it's hard to become a world class performer in a couple of weeks.
Unlike her opponent, Ms Harris has spent the past week holed up in a Pennsylvania hotel deep in policy books - but her team has also tried to prepare her to win the optics battle too.
The Harris team has reportedly built a mock television stage - fully fitted with a debate podium and proper lighting.
Top advisers are standing-in and playing the role of Trump (with one of them reportedly even dressing in his signature boxy suits and red ties).
All of this is in a bid to get Ms Harris comfortable with the theatre of it all. They've also been reviewing hours of video of all those Trump debates, seeing which plays work well against him and which fall flat.
If the vice-president was hoping for a burst of last minute good news to quell any stage fright, she didn't get it. A New York Times poll this week has rattled Democrats.
The poll showed a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates, but a sizeable share of voters said they didn't feel they knew enough about Ms Harris.
One Democratic strategist texted to say they are nervous about the debate because they felt Ms Harris was tentative in a recent CNN interview.
Ask any of the Republicans who Trump demolished in the 2016 primary debates and they will surely tell you that "tentative" is not a winning strategy against him.
Since the American public knows far more about Trump than about Ms Harris, the stakes for her seem higher on Tuesday night.
One approach she may take in trying to win this debate will be doing all she can to ensure that Trump loses it. Her team wants to rattle him, to get him to be the most "Trumpian" version of himself.
They hope that if viewers see him behave badly, as he did in a 2020 debate against Joe Biden, it will cost him support.
I'm told Ms Harris may use trigger words like "old" (old ideas, old story) and "small" (small thinking, small beliefs) as a way to needle him on the basis that Trump is conscious of being the older candidate, and references to size seem to irritate him.
But goading him into rude interruptions will be difficult in this debate, because the candidates' microphones will be muted when it's not their turn to speak.
Until we see what happens on that stage, it's hard to determine what a win for either candidate looks like. Debates are unpredictable things. Just ask Mr Biden.
Yommie
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Yommie
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Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
BY JULIA MANCHESTER - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET
A new poll shows former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by only 2 points in Florida ahead of what could be a tighter-than-expected race in the red state in November.
Trump leads Harris with 49 to her 47 percent support in the Sunshine State, according to a Morning Consult poll released Monday. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Prior to the release of the latest Morning Consult poll, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average showed Trump leading Harris by 3.3 percentage points. A poll released by The Hill and Emerson College last week showed Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Florida, well within the survey’s margin of error.
In the state’s Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Scott leads by 5 points. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average shows Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell by 3 points.
The latest polling data paints a picture of a tightening race in Florida, which has been dominated by Republicans in recent election cycles. Former President Obama was the last Democrat to win the state by less than a percentage point in 2012. Trump then won the state by just more than 1 point in 2016 and by more than 3 points in 2020.
Republicans continued to strengthen their grip on the state in the 2022 midterms, when the party saw landslide statewide victories while Republicans outside of the state largely underperformed.
But the Harris campaign has made a number of recent investments, many of them related to abortion, as the state prepares to vote on Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights into the state’s constitution. Earlier this month, Harris launched a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Trump’s hometown of Palm Beach.
Polling released by The Hill and Emerson College last week found that 55 percent of likely Florida voters said they would back Amendment 4, while 26 percent said they plan to vote no. The measure must receive 60 percent support from Florida voters in order to pass.
The Morning Consult poll was conducted Aug 30-Sept. 8, 2024, among 3,076 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
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